[whereagles]

Why should I be kidding? Passing may be wrong, but chances are it will happen more often than not. That's what you get for leaving the important decisions to the weak hand...

[hrothgar]

whereagles, on May 20 2004, 12:09 AM, said:

hrothgar, on May 19 2004, 09:09 PM, said:

On your analys of board 2:

>Can you really blame him for passing 5♦ on

>♠ QJxx
>♥ xx
>♦ xxx
>♣ Axxx

You doubled and then introduced a new suit at the 5 level...

I will gladly "blame" partner for passing 5♦ with a first round control and a QJxx in a suit where I rate to have values...

Go ahead and blame him for having what he's expected to have: the usual 7 hcp one places partner with after a preempt.

There is a concept known as conditional probability
Might be useful to learn it...

Consider the auction

(4H) - 5D - (P) - ???

Compare this to the auction

(4H) - X - (P) - 4S
(P) - 5D - (P) - ???

Your expected hand strength is quite different in the two cases.

[whereagles]

Whose expected strenght?

[the hog]

Doubler's of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[whereagles]

What does that have to do with conditioned probability then?

[the hog]

What Richard is clearly saying, (well clear to me anyway), is that the hand you gave is huge after a X and a 5D bid, because the values you have are unexpected, but is worth a pass after an immediate 5D bid as 5D bidder is more or less bidding on you having those values.
QED

[whereagles]

That I understand... (but still don't see what it has to do with conditioned probabilities). I asked a few people and am now convinced pard should perhaps bid 6 on that hand.

Still, I don't like double + 5♦ because it puts a lot of pressure into a hand whose only interest in the auction is to pass as soon as possible

By the way, what do you think a direct 6♦ should show? 12 playing tricks?

[hrothgar]

whereagles, on May 20 2004, 11:19 AM, said:

Whose expected strenght?

The following example is dramatically over simplified, however, consider the following:

Assume that the preemptor has 10 HCP for his opening bid.

In the first example (a direct 5D bid), the hand making the 5D overcall should have approximately 17 HCP. In this case, there are a total of 13 HCP left in the deck. Responder is expected to have ~7. In turn, this means that

QJxx
xx
xxx
Axxx

is fairly "normal"

However, if the sequence starts with a double, followed by a 5D rebid, the doubler promises a significantly stronger hand. Lets assume that doubler needs at least 22 HCP for this sequence. In this case, there are 8 HCP left in the deck and your hand becomes significantly stronger than expected...

The underlying principle here is that your expected strength is conditional on partner's expected strength. The stronger that partner is, the weaker the expected value of your hand...

[whereagles]

Well, it was responder's expected strenght after all

But yeah, I understand that. (I'm familiar with the concept, by the way.) My problem was in the first post I didn't quite get your point.

[Fluffy]

♠QJXX
♥XX
♦XXX
♣AXXX

normal hand???

This is exactly the BEST 7 HCP partner can hold, the best hand is never normal, and the normal thing is partner woný have that.