[OleBerg]

Scoring: XIMP

---

1♣ - (Pass) - 1♦ - (Pass)
2♦ - (Pass) - 3NT - (Pass)
Pass - (Double) - Pass - (Pass)
4♥ - (Pass) - Pass - (Pass)

1♦ = Transfer-Walsh
2♦ = 15-16 balanced and 4 card heart-support.
The double asked for a club-lead.

Lead: ♦2, promising an odd-number.

[FrancesHinden]

I'm feeling a bit stupid this morning, but I can only see three vaguely sensible lines

i) pick trumps up for no loser (North having singleton honour or South QJ doubleton)

ii) play North to hold three trumps. This also makes if South has three trumps and a singleton club. The problem is that if this was the answer you wouldn't be posting this in this forum, it's too obvious a line.

iii) play North to hold Hx of trumps and read his distribution. This trump holding is more likely, given that he has long clubs, but it's made harder because you have to decide if he is 2236 or 3235, and you look particularly silly if in fact he is 3316

I don't have to commit yet, however. I start by putting in the D10 from dummy, because if South doesn't play the jack he'll probably give count, which won't hurt. Next I cash the king of hearts. If North plays an honour, I cash the side suits ending in dummy before a heart finesse (king of hearts, two more diamonds, three spades, heart to the 10) which gains if North has QJ doubleton heart, but loses if South has four hearts and a doubleton pointy suit, which I think is less likely.

If South plays a heart honour I probably need QJ doubleton.

If all follow low to the heart I play two more diamonds, which look most likely to be 4-3. Then it's just a guess. Either three rounds of spades and a heart up, planning to duck if possible (wins when North is 3235 or 2236 with a heart honour) or ace of hearts, three rounds of spades, heart (wins when North has 6 clubs or three hearts). The latter feels more likely. Except that a heart towards the 10 also picks up South's 4441 holding. Either of these two lines looks plausible.

[whereagles]

I'll just play LHO for

xxx
Hx
xxx
AQJTx

and cash D/S winners, followed by ♥K and a heart duck to LHO's singleton honor.

[OleBerg]

FrancesHinden, on Mar 27 2009, 02:22 PM, said:

I'm feeling a bit stupid this morning, but I can only see three vaguely sensible lines

i) pick trumps up for no loser (North having singleton honour or South QJ doubleton)

ii) play North to hold three trumps. This also makes if South has three trumps and a singleton club. The problem is that if this was the answer you wouldn't be posting this in this forum, it's too obvious a line.

iii) play North to hold Hx of trumps and read his distribution. This trump holding is more likely, given that he has long clubs, but it's made harder because you have to decide if he is 2236 or 3235, and you look particularly silly if in fact he is 3316

I don't have to commit yet, however. I start by putting in the D10 from dummy, because if South doesn't play the jack he'll probably give count, which won't hurt. Next I cash the king of hearts. If North plays an honour, I cash the side suits ending in dummy before a heart finesse (king of hearts, two more diamonds, three spades, heart to the 10) which gains if North has QJ doubleton heart, but loses if South has four hearts and a doubleton pointy suit, which I think is less likely.

If South plays a heart honour I probably need QJ doubleton.

If all follow low to the heart I play two more diamonds, which look most likely to be 4-3. Then it's just a guess. Either three rounds of spades and a heart up, planning to duck if possible (wins when North is 3235 or 2236 with a heart honour) or ace of hearts, three rounds of spades, heart (wins when North has 6 clubs or three hearts). The latter feels more likely. Except that a heart towards the 10 also picks up South's 4441 holding. Either of these two lines looks plausible.

On your ♦10, South plays the three. (If honest, showing an even number.)

On the king of hearts, South plays the ♥4 and North the ♥7.

Opponents are quite strong, a tad below being international players (open).

You'll soon have to make a commitment.

(My thoughts; does the heart spots change anything?)

[FrancesHinden]

If you think that opponents never play an 'unnecessarily' high spot (i.e. they might play the 7 from 76 but would never play the 6 with 64), then the relevant holdings for North are

Q7
J7

QJ7
Q76
J76

7


it's now equally likely (just in hearts) that he's got H7 or one of the 3-card holdings.
If they play strictly upwards than obviously H7 is more likely than QJ7.

This now depends on opponents a bit. Against many players in my country, I know if they are religious spot-cards-upwards players, or if they randomise (at least partly) from their spots.

I suppose I'm going to play North for 3235 or 2236 with a heart honour because (i) with 6 clubs he might have led the ace of clubs, and (ii) with two low spades and 3 low diamonds a spade lead is more likely and with two low hearts he might have led a trump.

Trumps 4-1 doesn't help me as I have 4 losers.

[suokko]

From good opponents I would more like suspect 4♥ is "forced play" and ♥ is "false card". That is at least very common way how near international level players do here. But of course that false card is random and sometime they play from small. But more often I have seen spots played in "wrong order".

Now only queston is if ♦ lead was singleton or from 3 small? If it was from 3 small then ♦J would have appeared in trick one so I would suspect sgl lead here. So playing north for 3♥ would be my choice. Jx2 lead doesn't sound very likely and 5-5 minors is beating me.