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Lead Problem

#1 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2009-March-27, 12:58

Scoring: MP

P-(1♥)-P-(3♥*) *=weak
Dbl-(4♥)-4♠-(P)
P-(5♥)-Dbl All Pass

Kevin Fay
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#2 User is offline   TylerE 

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Posted 2009-March-27, 13:15

♣x
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#3 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2009-March-27, 13:39

K♦
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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#4 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2009-March-27, 14:02

♦K. Why on earth did I double 5♥??
Kind regards,
Harald
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#5 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2009-March-27, 16:12

Trumps. We should have the other suits more or less under control.
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#6 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2009-March-28, 01:45

skaeran, on Mar 27 2009, 09:02 PM, said:

Why on earth did I double 5♥??

Dunno, hoping for ♣A in partner's hand perhaps...

I'd lead ♦K.
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#7 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2009-March-28, 02:47

skaeran, on Mar 27 2009, 10:02 PM, said:

Why on earth did I double 5♥??

Because 4♠ might actually be a winner, in which case you need to protect your score. (If partner found the double of 3♥, it might very well be found at the other table too.)

I lead my ♣.

Partner will have some values, among which could be the minor aces.

a) If partner has both aces: A club is highly likely to be right.
:D If partner has only the ♦A: A club will not cost a reasonable amount of the time.
c) If partner has only the ♣A: A club is highly likely to be right.
d) If partner has no aces: A club will not cost a reasonable amount of the time.

Obviously a) is not as likely as the other scenarios, but B) and c) must be virtually equal.

I agree however that a ♦ is probably a bit more "safe" than a ♣, if your aim solely to beat the contract, but I weakly believe that a ♣ is a long term winner, imp-wise.

The few times my ♣-lead gives away the contract, I'll live with the raised eyebrows from the "solid" experts. I've looked silly before.

Edit: Oops, MP. Changes matter significantly.
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Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

Best Regards Ole Berg

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We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.

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#8 User is offline   wclass___ 

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Posted 2009-March-28, 06:05

♠A
Seeking input from anyone who doesn't frequently "wtp", "Lol" or post to merely "Agree with ..." --sathyab
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#9 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2009-March-29, 05:40

OleBerg, on Mar 28 2009, 09:47 AM, said:

skaeran, on Mar 27 2009, 10:02 PM, said:

Why on earth did I double 5♥??

Because 4♠ might actually be a winner, in which case you need to protect your score.

Huh? We're both passed hands, really looks to me like we're making a save. Though we might have a lot of tricks in spades.

I'd expect opps to have 10 or 11 tricks. If they've got 10, we've already done our job by pushing them up a level. If they've got 11, we give ourselves a bottom instead of a 35-45% board by doubling.
Kind regards,
Harald
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#10 User is offline   JLOL 

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Posted 2009-March-29, 10:45

Agree with DK
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#11 User is offline   xcurt 

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Posted 2009-March-29, 17:54

♦K.

I think a club is huge error. If partner really has clubs, they already lost the board between being on the 5-level and blowing up 5♥. If he doesn't this is just asking to watch them run winners.

I also think doubling is a huge error since a significant fraction of the field is defending 4♥ and we're giving up our free-roll against those pairs.

♠A isn't crazy but I want to combine chances for the maximum beat with chances for any beat.
"It is not enough to be a good player. You must also play well." -- Tarrasch
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