Posted 2009-March-25, 03:34
Two possibilities:
(1) Duck the first club. They probably have to play a trump. Win in hand, duck a heart, win the return, ruff a heart high, get back to hand, cash the trumps for a simple squeeze in the black suits. No card-reading is required, but I may suffer a club ruff.
(2) Take the first club and duck a heart. Win the trump switch in hand, ruff a heart high and cash the trumps to strip-squeeze East. I'll have to read the layout correctly, without having seen what West does on the second round of clubs.
With either line, West might win the heart and switch to a spade through dummy. This forces me to try to take two ruffs in dummy, with some risk of being overruffed in either hearts or spades. If I ruff a heart before a club, I can't ruff it high, because I need ♦K to overruff West in clubs. Hence I should play to ruff the club first - this is one reason for ducking a heart rather than playing ace and another.
However, we're still not out of the woods: West might ruff the club with a middle trump to force dummy's king. If I overruff, I may then be overruffed by East in hearts.
In that case [nearly finished], I want to be able to discard a club from dummy when West ruffs in. To do that I have to have not ducked a club, so I should play line 2, as long as I'm reasonably confident of being able to read the ending.
I'm not sure that I would have worked all of this out at the table.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
(P) - 2♠ - (3♣) - 3♦;
(P) - 4♦ - (P) - 5♦;
All Pass