[Mbodell]

Scoring: MP

P - P - 1♦ - P
1♥ - P - 4♥ AP

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♦7 Q K 3
♣6 J Q A
♥2 6 Q A
♦2 A 4 8
♣8 5 K 2
♥T 5 ?

Is the possibility that W has lead from a doubleton diamond enough to shift the probabilities from a heart drop (K) to a heart finesse (3)?

[rogerclee]

Disagree with this line, I gave up an endplay against east (pitch a spade on the ♦T) for no reason.

[kgr]

rogerclee, on Mar 7 2009, 11:39 AM, said:

Disagree with this line, I gave up an endplay against east (pitch a spade on the ♦T) for no reason.

I could be wrong, but I don't see why you should do that.
- If ♥'s are 2-2 then East will return a ♥ and you are down if ♠K is off
- If ♥'s are 3-1 then East will have to return a ♠, but you have no entry to your hand anymore to finesse ♥.
...And maybe opps lead 3th-5th and the lead was 3rd best?
 

[OleBerg]

I rise with the King.

If it brings down the jack, I am home. If not, I eliminate the minors (Clubs first), and hope that I can endplay East on the ♥J to lead away from the ♠K.

Without a possible endplay, it is more difficult, but surely some number-Crunchers can figure it out.

[OleBerg]

kgr, on Mar 7 2009, 11:57 AM, said:

rogerclee, on Mar 7 2009, 11:39 AM, said:

Disagree with this line, I gave up an endplay against east (pitch a spade on the ♦T) for no reason.

I could be wrong, but I don't see why you should do that.
- If ♥'s are 2-2 then East will return a ♥ and you are down if ♠K is off
- If ♥'s are 3-1 then East will have to return a ♠, but you have no entry to your hand anymore to finesse ♥.
...And maybe opps lead 3th-5th and the lead was 3rd best?
 

Or put in a slightly different way:

If the King of spades is off-side, you one down for certain.
If the King of spades is onside, they lead a non-heart (A spade seems obvious), and you can never be better off than your own guess.