Echognome, on Mar 2 2009, 07:19 PM, said:
Why do we want to want to discourage partner from bidding on if partner thinks it's appropriate? Are we playing double here as "I don't think we can make a 5-level contract opposite what I know thus far?" It's definitely a call I don't understand (so will be eager to understand better Mike's reasoning).
I cannot imagine a hand on which a good partner can bid 5
♠ if we pass. Please... he bid a non-forcing 3
♠ and now he is expected to bid 5
♠ in a non-forcing situation?
No, the reality is that we are going to be making the partnership decision here... except that partner may be able to say double if we pass.. .but only if he has above average defensive prospects, given that he has announced his hand type and we have suggested that they be left undisturbed. He should not be doubling 'because partner responded 1N'. If he trusts us, and we hope he does, we would double if we felt that they rated to go down opposite a substantial majority of hands on which he would bid 3
♠. When we pass, we suggest that they rate to make on too many such hands given what we are looking at.
Thus, if we held xxx QJxx QJxx xx, a hand on which I would make a forcing 1N rather than 2
♠ or pass, I would pass and hope that they go down.
Given that I hold Qx in spades, I expect partner to hold more side values than I would play for if I held xx in spades. Furthermore, I expect him to hold the spade A... a suit missing both the AQ would not look much like a 3
♠ rebid, and even if it did, then he has compensating cards elsewhere. I hold an Ace. Partner rates to hold some working red values. Therefore I expect them to fail.
That is almost enough for the double... it certainly makes double infinitely preferable to the do-nothing pass. The only real question is whether we make 5
♠ enough times to make that call better.
I conclude: no. It is close.
I rate the options as Double 100 5
♠ 90 pass 60.
Now, if you think that pass is forcing, then all bets are off. A forcing pass is just about perfect for this hand.. the only suit in play is spades and our cards are wonderful in context... if partner has a prime hand, with no wastage, and maximum hcp, then bring on the pass to invite him to the party. But pass is not forcing... wishing doesn't make it so.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari