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A key decision

#1 User is offline   H_KARLUK 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 17:46

Scoring: IMP


W      N      E      S
        1      P      1NT
2    3      5      ?

Would you mind sharing your thoughts about 3 and what's your rebid ? Any comments would be helpful.
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#2 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:07

3 means more or less what it would have meant had LHO passed. Some partnerships have an agreement that, absent competition, they would rebid a 2 or 3 card club suit, which in this style is rarely passed, and then jump to 3 with a weaker suit than an immediate 3 (I played this in one partnership.. the immediate 3 delivered at least AK108 in suit quality). But most don't make this distinction, so for them this 3 is unaffected by the overcall.

Typically something along the lines of a 6331 or 6322 (any order of side suit length) and a prime 15 (lots of Aces and Kings, good internal texture) or 16+. Tops out at a bad 18.

That was the easy part, and this part is a B/I issue.

But the second part... that is far, far tougher.

Firstly: are we even in a fp situation? My vote is no... 3 was non-forcing.. it did not announce ownership of the hand.

So, if we are in a non-forcing pass situation, what do we do?

We are not getting to 5 unless we bid it, since we can hardly pass and pull a double, even if we could be sure that partner will double, and pass doesn't even hint at him bidding spades again, as it would if our pass were forcing.

I double. Could be horribly wrong, but this hand feels like everyone is down 1 at the 5-level.

The only thing worse would be to make us red v white.. then I really, really hate my bid.

BTW, going right on these problems, consistently, is the hallmark of the real expert... and I think it takes a lot of practice against good opps to learn how to do this. I hardly ever travel and when I do I notice that this area is probably my biggest weakness (other than counting to 13).
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#3 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:19

I would pass. I can understand, I guess, 5, but one call I can't understand at all is double.

What do we have in our hand that makes double the right call? Why do we want to want to discourage partner from bidding on if partner thinks it's appropriate? Are we playing double here as "I don't think we can make a 5-level contract opposite what I know thus far?" It's definitely a call I don't understand (so will be eager to understand better Mike's reasoning).

As for our defensive prospects, I don't think we have anything that partner cannot expect. Yes we have an Ace which is good both on offense and defense. However, we also have the Q which will likely be a waste of values on defense.

Upon reflection before posting, perhaps Mike views double as "primarily takeout". I would expect double here to be "primarily penalties," not based on a trump stack, but based on more defensive values. So I'll be curious what way people view the double to be.
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#4 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:24

Just to make sure everything gets a vote, I bid 5. Partner doesn't know about our support or our short clubs or our ace. If I'm down i credit the enterprising opponents.
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#5 User is offline   mtvesuvius 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:29

I pass, I just don't see where this is going, and 5 looks to be down. This is not a forcing pass, but it shows little defense and a minimum hand imo. I don't like X, and I think 5 is quite often wrong.
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#6 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 18:54

Echognome, on Mar 2 2009, 07:19 PM, said:

Why do we want to want to discourage partner from bidding on if partner thinks it's appropriate?  Are we playing double here as "I don't think we can make a 5-level contract opposite what I know thus far?"  It's definitely a call I don't understand (so will be eager to understand better Mike's reasoning).


I cannot imagine a hand on which a good partner can bid 5 if we pass. Please... he bid a non-forcing 3 and now he is expected to bid 5 in a non-forcing situation?

No, the reality is that we are going to be making the partnership decision here... except that partner may be able to say double if we pass.. .but only if he has above average defensive prospects, given that he has announced his hand type and we have suggested that they be left undisturbed. He should not be doubling 'because partner responded 1N'. If he trusts us, and we hope he does, we would double if we felt that they rated to go down opposite a substantial majority of hands on which he would bid 3. When we pass, we suggest that they rate to make on too many such hands given what we are looking at.

Thus, if we held xxx QJxx QJxx xx, a hand on which I would make a forcing 1N rather than 2 or pass, I would pass and hope that they go down.

Given that I hold Qx in spades, I expect partner to hold more side values than I would play for if I held xx in spades. Furthermore, I expect him to hold the spade A... a suit missing both the AQ would not look much like a 3 rebid, and even if it did, then he has compensating cards elsewhere. I hold an Ace. Partner rates to hold some working red values. Therefore I expect them to fail.

That is almost enough for the double... it certainly makes double infinitely preferable to the do-nothing pass. The only real question is whether we make 5 enough times to make that call better.

I conclude: no. It is close.

I rate the options as Double 100 5 90 pass 60.

Now, if you think that pass is forcing, then all bets are off. A forcing pass is just about perfect for this hand.. the only suit in play is spades and our cards are wonderful in context... if partner has a prime hand, with no wastage, and maximum hcp, then bring on the pass to invite him to the party. But pass is not forcing... wishing doesn't make it so.
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#7 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 20:37

Agree with Mike, pass is out of the question unless it is forcing, and it isn't forcing for me either. So the choice is between double (which is very likely +100 or +300, -550 and +500 both possible) and 5S (which is likely a small minus but could be a considerable plus). It's a tough choice between the two, I'll go with double but tomorrow I might think differently.

I do think that partner might double 2C on some 6232 hands with the same strength and 6 poor spades. I think 3S in this auction is less likely a poor 6-card suit then it is after 1S-pass-1NT-pass.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#8 User is offline   H_KARLUK 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 22:05

Scoring: IMP


W      N      E        S
        1      P      1NT
2    3     5      ?
We all know that light travels faster than sound. That's why certain people appear bright until you hear them speak. Quoted by Albert Einstein.
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#9 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2009-March-02, 22:57

I am a bit late here. I would have doubled. looking at the hands now, I would definitely NOT have bid 3S. It is hard to make a reasoned decision when partner can have a hand a fair way away from what I consider to be a reasonable action. This hand is at least a K short of a 3S bid.
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#10 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2009-March-03, 02:27

I had bid 5 Spade, but where is the hand north had during the bidding?
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