[Mbodell]

This might be a WTP, but I saw at least 3 reasonable lines and while I like the one I choose, my partner thought another was better but close. Like some help on what is the right line and why.

Scoring: MP

Opponents silent
1nt (10-12) - 2♦ (transfer)
2♥

Opening lead ♠Q to the A
T2 has ♠4 to the K
T3-4 pulls trump with West pitching ♠6.
Now what?

---

[Stephen Tu]

I don't see any reason not to play the clubs in the normal fashion, CA then club to T if you only see small clubs and the c9. What other line were you contemplating?

The field's going to be in game, but there's not a whole lot you can do about that at this point.

[Mbodell]

Stephen Tu, on Feb 20 2009, 06:39 PM, said:

I don't see any reason not to play the clubs in the normal fashion, CA then club to T if you only see small clubs and the c9. What other line were you contemplating?

The field's going to be in game, but there's not a whole lot you can do about that at this point.

I was considering between ♦A and low ♦, ♣A and low to T, ♣A and low to Q.

I choose the line you suggested and thought it was probably best. Partner liked the diamond elimination, but may just have found it more aesthetically pleasing as opposed to having greater technical merit.

[skjaeran]

The diamond elimination is wrong at MP, since it gives up the overtrick. IF RHO holds Kx/Jx/KJ/K/J you're up for an overtrick, and if LHO holds singleton K you're making two overtricks.

So it's pretty obvious that you should play on clubs, small to the ace and a small back. If you agree that LHO would always lead a small singleton, it's more or less a cocmplete guess whether you should finesse the ten or play the queen.

[jdonn]

skaeran, on Feb 21 2009, 04:38 AM, said:

The diamond elimination is wrong at MP, since it gives up the overtrick. IF RHO holds Kx/Jx/KJ/K/J you're up for an overtrick, and if LHO holds singleton K you're making two overtricks.

So it's pretty obvious that you should play on clubs, small to the ace and a small back. If you agree that LHO would always lead a small singleton, it's more or less a cocmplete guess whether you should finesse the ten or play the queen.

Right so you should play the queen because you are not in a game most will be in and they will usually play the ten, I think.

[skjaeran]

jdonn, on Feb 21 2009, 06:56 PM, said:

skaeran, on Feb 21 2009, 04:38 AM, said:

The diamond elimination is wrong at MP, since it gives up the overtrick. IF RHO holds Kx/Jx/KJ/K/J you're up for an overtrick, and if LHO holds singleton K you're making two overtricks.

So it's pretty obvious that you should play on clubs, small to the ace and a small back. If you agree that LHO would always lead a small singleton, it's more or less a cocmplete guess whether you should finesse the ten or play the queen.

Right so you should play the queen because you are not in a game most will be in and they will usually play the ten, I think.

Yes, you're most probably right about that.

[655321]

skaeran, on Feb 21 2009, 03:36 PM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 21 2009, 06:56 PM, said:

skaeran, on Feb 21 2009, 04:38 AM, said:

The diamond elimination is wrong at MP, since it gives up the overtrick. IF RHO holds Kx/Jx/KJ/K/J you're up for an overtrick, and if LHO holds singleton K you're making two overtricks.

So it's pretty obvious that you should play on clubs, small to the ace and a small back. If you agree that LHO would always lead a small singleton, it's more or less a cocmplete guess whether you should finesse the ten or play the queen.

Right so you should play the queen because you are not in a game most will be in and they will usually play the ten, I think.

Yes, you're most probably right about that.

Disagree that you should be worrying about the people in game.

Your possible scores are 140, 170, 200.
Their possible scores are -100, 620, 650.
Your decision on how to play 2♥ can't in any way affect the matchpoints you get from the tables playing 4♥.

But I agree there is nothing wrong with playing the queen ... or the ten.

[xcurt]

We are playing matchpoints, so even at these colors the opponents checking out 2♥ suggests they have semi-balanced hands. RHO is a strong favorite not to be x2x1 and LHO not to have x1x1 so I'll lead a low club off the table at T5. If I misguess I can revert to the diamond throw-in line to try for my 10th trick. If I guess right I make 5. I'll pay off to LHO having exactly ♣KJ tight.

[kenrexford]

I think there is an elephant in the room.

The defense went horribly wrong. After winning the spade Ace, and knowing that partner does not have the spade King, it seems like a decent time to make a move here. If the auction were standard, with the same start, then South would not be declaring but would have his hand on dummy. That may well have resulted in a diamond lead. Even if South opens 1NT, a diamond switch might be called for. But, certainly a diamond attack in a timely manner seems likely whenever North declares.

Thus, we expect the field to lose a diamond and a spade no matter what. This will probably mean that the field defense will win all of these tricks and then break clubs from one side or the other. However, on a diamond lead, the defense might well be to win the club, cash the diamond, and then attack spades.

So, game, if bid, if not clearly making. I think it often fails, when the field guess in clubs fails.

This makes me think that attacking clubs is right, but then what?

If the 10 wins, as the normal play, we beat everyone who missed game (because of the diamond-suit advantage) but lose to everyone who bid game. If the 10 fails, the opponents now take away our diamond-suit advantage, so that we tie those who missed game but beat those who got to game.

If we zag and pop Queen, and that wins, we beat everyone. If that loses, however, we lose to everyone in game AND the diamond switch at this point means that we lose to those who miss game also. Bad stuff.

If I read all of this correctly, then, I think we end up better off in the long run playing clubs the normal way.

[xcurt]

kenrexford, on Feb 21 2009, 06:05 PM, said:

<stuff about comparisons with tables in game>

Agree that the defense is bad, bad bad.

But, as 65531 explained, results at the tables in 4♥ don't matter to us.

On the other hand, there is some possibility of other tables playing 4♠x-1, so we might have a small incentive to try for +200 (2♥+3) at the cost of increasing the frequency of +140 relative to +170. There's only one way to achieve that which is finding LHO with ♠?, ♥x, ♦?, ♣K.

[kenrexford]

xcurt, on Feb 21 2009, 06:15 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Feb 21 2009, 06:05 PM, said:

<stuff about comparisons with tables in game>

Agree that the defense is bad, bad bad.

But, as 65531 explained, results at the tables in 4♥ don't matter to us.

On the other hand, there is some possibility of other tables playing 4♠x-1, so we might have a small incentive to try for +200 (2♥+3) at the cost of increasing the frequency of +140 relative to +170. There's only one way to achieve that which is finding LHO with ♠?, ♥x, ♦?, ♣K.

That's true, almost. Same result.

Playing the normal card, we win when it works but tie when it fails.
Playing the abnormal card, we win when it works but lose when it fails.

The events at the tables where game is bid simply cause exaggeration or minimization of the above.

However, the results at the other tables are important if we need swingy action or if we want conservative action, it seems.

[hanp]

jdonn, on Feb 21 2009, 12:56 PM, said:

skaeran, on Feb 21 2009, 04:38 AM, said:

The diamond elimination is wrong at MP, since it gives up the overtrick. IF RHO holds Kx/Jx/KJ/K/J you're up for an overtrick, and if LHO holds singleton K you're making two overtricks.

So it's pretty obvious that you should play on clubs, small to the ace and a small back. If you agree that LHO would always lead a small singleton, it's more or less a cocmplete guess whether you should finesse the ten or play the queen.

Right so you should play the queen because you are not in a game most will be in and they will usually play the ten, I think.

LOL

(meant sincerely, I find Josh's nonsense very amusing)

[orlam]

Aren't we already in a good position to win MPs against the others who are not in game? (No diamond shift.) Which would increase the incentive of playing the normal line? (Club A, club to the T.)

[Mbodell]

Actual results: I played ♣A, low to the ♣T, losing to the ♣J, and defense cashed the K♣ giving me 2 ♣ losers but no diamonds for +170. The layout was:

Scoring: MP

---

and this was a inter-club-championship so we have the frequencies on this board as:

N-S E-W N-S E-W
650 ... 99.96 0.04 1
480 ... 97.92 2.08 1
450 ... 88.75 11.25 8
420 ... 64.27 35.73 16
200 ... 41.84 58.16 6
170 ... 33.69 66.31 2
130 ... 30.63 69.37 1
... 50 18.39 81.61 11
... 100 5.14 94.86 2
... 140 2.08 97.92 1
... 170 0.04 99.96 1

But don't know if the 200 are 4♠x-1 or ♥ partial making 5.

[kenrexford]

Well, obviously the smother line works better. Should be obvious! (LOL)

[xcurt]

kenrexford, on Feb 22 2009, 10:26 AM, said:

Well, obviously the smother line works better.  Should be obvious!  (LOL)

The low club toward hand without cashing the ace would have worked. Specifically, if you think clubs are 3-2 and the defenders are not imaginative enough to duck with ♣Kx on your right, you have the following 10 cases where the ♣J is wrong. Of course if the ♣J is right both lines score up the same.

I'll use x and y to denote the two small clubs, so the full enemy club holding is KJ9xy.

RHO has:


K9
Kx
Ky

These three cases are a wash if RHO will pop. If RHO is good enough to duck in tempo, not cashing the ace is losing these cases.

9x
9y

Not cashing the ace first gains (2 cases)

xy

Nothing to be done with this case.

K9x
K9y
Kxy

These two cases are a wash if RHO will duck smoothly. If RHO is more likely to fly if the ace wasn't cashed -- ie he doesn't have a count on the suit -- then cashing the ace might lose these cases.

9xy

Not cashing the ace loses (1 case).

[sathyab]

orlam, on Feb 22 2009, 02:13 AM, said:

Aren't we already in a good position to win MPs against the others who are not in game? (No diamond shift.) Which would increase the incentive of playing the normal line? (Club A, club to the T.)

I think the failure to shift to a Diamond by East is probably because he's reluctant to lead away from his King. May be East expected that his partner would get in with a high heart before declarer went after clubs or produce two club stoppers. It'd be clear for West to shift to a Diamond whenever he got in. If South held something like Kxx Hxx Qx Kxxxx, he's risking giving up an overtrick unnecessarily by a Diamond shift.