I feel no confidence at such judgment.
Another evaluation problem
#2
Posted 2009-February-09, 07:07
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#4
Posted 2009-February-09, 07:35
Here's some thoughts, though.
First, this seems like an example of where a 1♠-P-2♠ auction when Responder has Hx and a 9-11 count would help.
However, this also seems like a place where 1♠-P-1NT-P-2♠ might also help. 1♠...2♠ might alternatively help. 1♠...2♦ has a "worst case scenario" of five bad spades and a Rule-of-Twenty opening. 7 1/2 losers is distinctly possible. Heck, even a cruddy 5332 with 8 losers is possible.
1♠...2♠, however, gives Responder info necessary to invite himself with some prospects. He will know when his Hx actually establishes a fit, and he will know that your hand is better than a weak 2 in spades.
-P.J. Painter.
#5
Posted 2009-February-09, 08:18
Opponents are too silent if partner has 3 spades 4-7, it is unlikelly. Not sure if we have better chances at the 3 level opposite 3 spades and 5 points or opposite 2 spades and 7 points.
#6
Posted 2009-February-09, 09:12
#7
Posted 2009-February-09, 11:25
#8
Posted 2009-February-09, 11:44
Anyhow..not knowing what your agreements are, I wimp out and pass as I assumed responder has only 2♠ or that he has a bare flat min if he has 3♠.
I fear that he has wastage in ♣ here, noting that the opps have stayed out of the auction. If you could make a short suit ♣ game try I would think that may be OK.
However, sometimes PD will accept game and trumps will split 4-1 and the side with 4 has the missing honors and you go for a number. Othertimes the game try results in -1 whether accepted or not.
I'll wimp out and pass.
#9
Posted 2009-February-10, 07:11
There might be game on, but I think raising to 3♠ is losing IMPs in the long run - we end up going down more often than making game.
Harald
#10
Posted 2009-February-10, 16:17
#11
Posted 2009-February-10, 17:11
Is it possible to conjure up hands on which game may make? Yes. It almost always is possible to do that kind of thing. But that's only the tempting part of any analysis.
Even if you can come up with such a hand.. how do you invite partner to evaluate properly? I am willing to bet that if you conjure up suitable hands for partner, you will find that there will be many unsuitable hands on which he would also, correctly, accept your try.
And a huge number of hands on which he rejects your try and you fail... heck, it is easy to conjure up a large family of hands on which you are too high already.
xx Qxxx Jx KJxxx.. how do YOU bid as partner with this (not a minimum) holding? They lead a spade and how do you like your chances?
#12
Posted 2009-February-10, 18:46
whereagles, on Feb 9 2009, 10:12 PM, said:
Where is the double fit Nuno? Responder didn't raise ds and simpley bid 2S. Sounds like a misfit to me. I bet responder has a fistful of Cs and a doubleton S.
Pass.
#13
Posted 2009-February-11, 07:06
The_Hog, on Feb 11 2009, 12:46 AM, said:
whereagles, on Feb 9 2009, 10:12 PM, said:
Where is the double fit Nuno? Responder didn't raise ds and simpley bid 2S. Sounds like a misfit to me. I bet responder has a fistful of Cs and a doubleton S.
Pass.
Well, responder didn't bid 3♣ or 2♥ over 2♦, so he doesn't have a fistful of that. He should have something like 2434, 2443 or 2344. (Note that pard wouldn't pass with 4 diamonds if he has 2 spades and 8-9 hcp.)
Anyway, I can't really explain why I try for game. It's just a feeling.
#14
Posted 2009-February-11, 08:36
--Always remember you're unique. Just like everyone else.
#15
Posted 2009-February-11, 08:38
- p usually has only two spade so probably cannot ruff a diamond, this means one loser more.
- p made his 1NT response based on HCPs rather than mLTCs, so the fact that we have three aces increases his expected mLTCs.
So this is an example of when not to use mLTC. I like Justin's argument.
#16
Posted 2009-February-11, 08:39
whereagles, on Feb 11 2009, 01:06 PM, said:
The_Hog, on Feb 11 2009, 12:46 AM, said:
whereagles, on Feb 9 2009, 10:12 PM, said:
Where is the double fit Nuno? Responder didn't raise ds and simpley bid 2S. Sounds like a misfit to me. I bet responder has a fistful of Cs and a doubleton S.
Pass.
Well, responder didn't bid 3♣ or 2♥ over 2♦, so he doesn't have a fistful of that. He should have something like 2434, 2443 or 2344. (Note that pard wouldn't pass with 4 diamonds if he has 2 spades and 8-9 hcp.)
Anyway, I can't really explain why I try for game. It's just a feeling.
We're not told how strong 2/1s we are playing, which affects partner's potential club length (what did he need to respond 2C?)
I agree that his expected spade length is a doubleton, but expecting 3+ diamonds is a little optimistic. What do you want him to do over 2D on a 2425, 1435 or minimum 2326 etc?
I pass 2S, and don't think it's close.
#17
Posted 2009-February-11, 08:51
FrancesHinden, on Feb 11 2009, 02:39 PM, said:
I don't think 3-4 diamonds is that optimistic. In fact, I think it's quite realistic. Still, even if he has 2, maybe we can ruff somethng. Agree that the shapes you mentioned make game rather miserable. In fact, agree also that Justin's fitting hand doesn't make a good game and that's probably the best you can hope for.
But, as I said, my bidding on is just a feeling. I'm not claiming it to be right - you can't explain feelings anyway.
#18
Posted 2009-February-15, 00:42
#19
Posted 2009-February-15, 13:13
With kind regards
Marlowe
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
#20
Posted 2009-February-15, 13:33
straube, on Feb 15 2009, 06:42 AM, said:
This is the US style of bidding. Not so common in Europe, though, where you usually skip a side minor only if it's like xxxx or so (and a min).
There is a point to the US style, though.

Help

1♠-ps-1NT-ps
2♦-ps-2♠-ps
??