[Hanoi5]

Scoring: MP

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Bidding goes:

3♣ P P 3♥
P 4♥ 5♣ 5♥
All Pass

West leads the ♠A, and she doesn't like what she sees. She cashes the ♣A, nothing interesting from her partner and continues with spades (a small one. Take it from there.

[rogerclee]

would ruff in hand and play rho for both heart honors

[Hanoi5]

Quote

would ruff in hand and play rho for both heart honors

Care to elaborate?

[rogerclee]

Hanoi5, on Jan 14 2009, 03:39 AM, said:

Quote

would ruff in hand and play rho for both heart honors

Care to elaborate?

ruff the spade
diamond up
run the heart (covered)
ace of diamonds ruff a diamond
spade spade
GOT EMMM

[Fluffy]

What roger says looks best to me, if ♠J holds play start with ♥10, ♦K, ♥9.

[ggwhiz]

I think I can handle a 4-0 trump break?

♠J and even if not covered, ruff it

♦ over, run the ♥10 (covered)

♣ ruff ♠K (pitch a ♦)

♠ ruff, ♦ ruff

trump coup.

[Phil]

I think its wrong to play RHO for both heart honors. He passes 3♣ and then sacs over 4♥ at equal with a bunch of quacks and a 3=3=4=3? I don't think so.

J♠, covered and ruffed.

Ruff club.

Heart to Q. If opps follow with the two x's, I will cash Ace hoping for LHO to be 2=2=2=7 and RHO 3=2=5=3. If LHO drops the J, I will play ♦ to K, ♠K and a spade. I expect this to be ruffed, ruff a diamond and a spade, etc..

Of course, LHO will pwn me with the false card from ♥Jx.

[Apollo81]

I agree with Roger's line. LHO has already shown up with the ♠A and ♣A, and likely has another club honor as well. To me this makes it extremely unlikely that he has anything in hearts.

[Echognome]

rogerclee, on Jan 14 2009, 02:50 AM, said:

ruff the spade
diamond up
run the heart (covered)
ace of diamonds ruff a diamond
spade spade
GOT EMMM

Say RHO started with KJx in hearts. He covers the spade. You ruff and play a diamond up and run the heart (covered). Now you ruff a diamond, so only have one trump left in dummy. You play two spades and RHO ruffs low. So you can draw the last trump, but have no way back to dummy.

Unless I'm missing something, which is entirely possible.

[Phil]

You are.

After, two winners by defense, spade, J, Q ruffed, diamond to board, heart covered and won, diamond, ruff diamond, KS (pitching diamond), JS, ruffed and overruffed, don't draw the trump; you have one trump in dummy left to take care of the club, so ruff it.

[Echognome]

Phil, on Jan 15 2009, 11:15 AM, said:

You are.

After, two winners by defense, spade, J, Q ruffed, diamond to board, heart covered and won, diamond, ruff diamond, KS (pitching diamond), JS, ruffed and overruffed, don't draw the trump; you have one trump in dummy left to take care of the club, so ruff it.

Right and clearly no chance of an overruff. Thanks.

Edit: I guess the risk is if trumps were 2-2 all along and LHO ruffs the spade.

[Mosene]

Play

♠ King (no way RHO has AQXX of spades after 3 club bid)
♥10 winning finesse
♥x winning finesse

then - assuming 3-1 hearts

♣X - ruff in dummy
♠J ruffing finesse

When back in hand pull last heart and play diamond to king. If hearts 4-0 I thing some more after the first finesse

[Phil]

Mosene, on Jan 15 2009, 02:46 PM, said:

Play

♠ King (no way RHO has AQXX of spades after 3 club bid)
♥10 winning finesse
♥x winning finesse

then - assuming 3-1 hearts

♣X - ruff in dummy
♠J ruffing finesse

When back in hand pull last heart and play diamond to king. If hearts 4-0 I thing some more after the first finesse

And if the ♥ 10 gets covered?

[Mosene]

If the 10 of hearts gets covered by the J - I think I can then:

♣ ruff
♠ruff in hand (remember - I am assuming 3-1 hearts and I think Fred recommeneded that you should generally not change your assumptions mid hand based on the specific cards played by the opponents - sorry Fred if I am off-base on that)
♦A
♦K
♠ either pithing last diamond - in which case I can then finesse the heart king and claim or over-ruff RHO's heart ruff - in which case I ruff the last diamond (i pitched one on the spade K) and can ruff back to my hand.

Given that RHO did not show the queen when I played the K of spades, I rate RHO to be 3=3=4=3.

[Hanoi5]

What would make you think RHO has KJx in hearts and what wouldn't? I mean, what does it depend on?, Would you always play RHO for KJx, no matter the bidding?

[Mosene]

"What would make you think RHO has KJx in hearts and what wouldn't? I mean, what does it depend on?, Would you always play RHO for KJx, no matter the bidding? "

I would not always play for KJx. But my thinking on this hand goes something like - we know LHO has 7 clubs and 2 spades. We know RHO has 3 clubs and 3 spades and also the heart K. The odds calculator (a neat little web site) says that the odds of RHO having 3 hearts is about 38% and the odds of 2-2 are about 42%. Pretty close. I think, however, that the odds of RHO having the J are greater than 50% given all the possible 3-1 and 2-2 combinations (ignoring the 4-0's). I think playing it the way I suggest works if they are 2-2 so long as RHO has the heart jack and assumed K.


Further, if we assume 3-1 and that RHO definitely has the K (based on the point count so far), then RHO is twice as likely to have the J rather than both of the 2 smaller cards. (or put a different way, LHO will have the J 1/3 of the time and one of the 2 small cards 2/3 of the time).

Even if right ( ), this is probably not a great or clear explantion - but it is an attempt to explain my thinking.

[JLOL]

BBF play analysis...

LOL

[rogerclee]

JLOL, on Jan 15 2009, 04:39 PM, said:

BBF play analysis...

LOL

LOL

[ggwhiz]

Hanoi5, on Jan 15 2009, 05:31 PM, said:

What would make you think RHO has KJx in hearts and what wouldn't? I mean, what does it depend on?, Would you always play RHO for KJx, no matter the bidding?

I wouldn't play rho for KJx(x) in ♥ without this auction.

A 3♣ opening bid doesn't rate to have Ace empty in the suit and already showed the ♠ Ace. I think the odds favor VERY short ♥ and denies the King by virtue of the pre-empt.

Might have the ♥ Jack but I think the odds favor not.