[OleBerg]

IMP's, all red,

(2♠) - pass - (4♠) - ???

♠ 632
♥ AK9876
♦ A10
♣ Q4

[Fluffy]

I take the push and hope RHO doesn't have 20 HCP.

[whereagles]

It's a guess and I guess "pass".

[mtvesuvius]

Pass. Sometimes pre-empts work.

[helene_t]

Pass. I think this is pretty obvious. RHO has general values since otherwise my p would have bid something with his shortness in spades. My hand is not extremely offensive so I don't want to compete to the five-level.

[Hanoi5]

I pass.

[Codo]

Maybe even 5 Heart makes oppsite a partner with short spades:
Give him x, Qxx, Kxxxx,,Kxxx and hearts 3-1.

And there are many hands where we have a good save or we push them to 5 Spade- 1.

really tricky, but I trust Gonzalo again.

[TimG]

Codo, on Jan 12 2009, 09:55 AM, said:

Maybe even 5 Heart makes oppsite a partner with short spades:
Give him x, Qxx, Kxxxx,,Kxxx and hearts 3-1.

This isn't so great on a trump lead, is it? Although you're right, 5♥ could turn out to be a good sac when partner has this hand.

[P_Marlowe]

Pass.

And I think it is pretty clear cut, hence I am feeling
strongly about it.

As it is, it is unclear, if 4S was bid the intention
to make, in which case 5H will get very expensive
or as a sac., sometimes they got you and you have
to accept this.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[MFA]

5♥.
I will take the possible slaughter like a man.
Reasonable confident that 5♥ will be a long term winner. Even though if OleBerg is posting, he must have bid and it must have been wrong.

[whereagles]

anyone for a simulation here? we need pard's

nr of hearts
nr of spades
keycards, HQ DK CAK

[TimG]

Codo, on Jan 12 2009, 09:55 AM, said:

Maybe even 5 Heart makes oppsite a partner with short spades:
Give him x, Qxx, Kxxxx,,Kxxx and hearts 3-1.

And there are many hands where we have a good save or we push them to 5 Spade- 1.

really tricky, but I trust Gonzalo again.

I did a double dummy simulation with codo's example hand:

predeal south S632, HAK9876, DAT, CQ4
predeal north S4, HQ54, DK8543, CK765

west_shape_ok=shape(west, any 6331 + any 6322 + any 6421) && spades(west)==6
west_hcp_ok=hcp(west)>5 && hcp(west)<11
west_ok=west_hcp_ok && west_shape_ok

east_shape_ok=spades(east)==3 && (hearts(east)==3 or hearts(east)==1) && !shape(east, any 4333 + any 5332 + any 4432)
east_ok=east_shape_ok

In a 1000 deal sample, NS made exactly 10 tricks in hearts 1000 times. (Which suggests there might be something wrong with the code.)

EW made 9 tricks in spades 765 and less than that 235.

[jdonn]

I'm really confident bidding is a long term loser. RHO can't be totally preemptive or partner would have been able to enter the auction. Meanwhile if he is on a strong hand (which can even have a doubleton spade) it could be absolute slaughter if we bid.

[whereagles]

jdonn, on Jan 12 2009, 04:18 PM, said:

RHO can't be totally preemptive or partner would have been able to enter the auction.

This is correct and a precious hint. Pard is short in spades and didn't act. So he's broke and RHO is probably heavy.

[Apollo81]

I'd pass.

This hand doesn't have that much playing strength, and if partner had a reasonable hand with short spades (pretty much what we need him to have for a bid) then he probably would have doubled.

[Fluffy]

jdonn, on Jan 12 2009, 04:18 PM, said:

Meanwhile if he is on a strong hand (which can even have a doubleton spade) it could be absolute slaughter if we bid.

I am most worried about him having singleton, that is when the things get bloody.

[OleBerg]

MFA, on Jan 12 2009, 05:43 PM, said:

... Even though if OleBerg is posting, he must have bid and it must have been wrong.

Very funny.

But actually you are on to something; I am looking for justification. I didn't hold the hand, so I only bid 5♥ in the post-mortem, after having seen the full hand:

Scoring: IMP

---

I was surprised to hear, that some very good players would pass, as I found 5♥ an easy bid. Partner really needs to have minor-junk for it to be expensive, IMP-vise.

Of course one hand is no evidence, but at least this one is a case for agressive bidding, both for N-S and E-W.

The North hand is the hand from my other thread: "What do you bid?"

[whereagles]

OleBerg, on Jan 14 2009, 09:49 AM, said:

Of course one hand is no evidence, but at least this one is a case for agressive bidding, both for N-S and E-W.

Well, then run a simulation. Pard could also have a flattish 2344 and assorted junk, no?

[helene_t]

If anything, East is closer to a 4NT bid than West is to a 5♥ bid. IMHO.

[Fluffy]

Not the kind of hand where a simulation is gonan work, the variety of hand on wich south is gonna bid this way makes it unpredictable.

This hand is a double fit one, and that's why comepting with both sides is correct.