Here is what I think the answer is:
Assuming you decide to play declarer for 2821 with the King of spades, and your partner for the King of diamonds (all reasonable given your partner's discards)...
1) It doesn't matter if declarer's singleton club is the Queen or a small one (you will see that the size of South's club never comes into play in any of what follows)
2) If declarer has the Queen of diamonds the contract can't be defeated (you will see why if you read the rest of what follows)
So let's give declarer:
Kx
AKQxxxxx
xx
x
(which turns out to be exactly what declarer actually had).
As West, it feels obvious to discard a spade, 2 diamonds, and 2 clubs, but if you do then this will be the ending:
Now declarer plays a club to the Ace and leads another club.
If East discards a diamond, declarer ruffs the club and exits in diamonds (where the defense is now 2-2). The defense is endplayed into breaking spades.
East must therefore discard a spade, stiffing his Queen. Careful now declarer! He can't ruff the club and bang down the King of spades - the defense would then run 3 diamonds.
Instead, declarer must discard a diamond on the 2nd round of clubs. West wins the King of clubs and has to play diamonds, but South ruffs the 2nd round and
now plays the King of spades. Winning trick 13 with the Jack of spades is probably not what declarer expected when the dummy came down
So, in the end position above, the declarer can prevail against any defense.
West's counter to this is to discard a winner (a diamond - the Ace in fact) in order to keep a loser (an extra small club). Here is the ending that will be reached:
If declarer exits in diamonds, the defense can cash their 2 diamonds and play a club - declarer will have to lead spades himself.
And it won't do any good for declarer to lead his last trump in the above position - the defense has 4 winners.
So let's say declarer tries what worked for him before - leading a club to the Ace and then another club.
In the 1st end position diagram, East was squeezed on this trick - he could not afford to discard a diamond so he came down to a singleton Queen of spades.
But in the 2nd end position diagram, East can afford to discard a diamond (if you understand the difference without reading further, you have done very well!).
If declarer ruffs the 2nd round of clubs, the defense has 4 winners for the last 4 tricks (1 spade, 2 diamonds, 1 club).
If instead declarer discards a diamond on the 2nd club, West wins the King and now 2 rounds of diamonds will endplay declarer in his hand. The King of spades won't save declarer this time because East was able to retain Queen doubleton of spades.
Note that if West had kept the Ace of diamonds (instead of the Jack) in the above diagram, he would have been unable to get out of his own way.
That is why there is no defense if declarer was dealt the Queen of diamonds. If South had that card, in the 2nd end position diagram he could lead a club to the Ace and a diamond toward his Queen.
Even if you had to read all of that in order to understand why West's third club is so important, if you do understand that now, you are a lot closer to
good then you are to
bad!
If you still don't understand, I do hope you blame the tough hand itself (as opposed to my possibly unclear and/or possibly faulty analysis of it!).
Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com