[H_KARLUK]

 

Scoring: MP

Contract 4 ♠

♣9 led. How do you pick suits ?

---

Auction :
East South West North
1♣   Pass   3♣*     X
Pass 3♠   Pass    4♠
All pass.
*3♣ Inverted

They say the best matchpoint depends on what happens at the room.

Best of Odds : (number of known cards 0)
♠Missing cards KQ986
W East Probabilty
96 KQ8 3.391
KQ6 98 3.391
986 KQ 3.391

♥ Missing cards AJ6432
J63 a42 1.776
A62 j43 1.776
J32 A64 1.776

♦ Missing cards AJt75
a7 jt5 3.391
jt5 a7 3.391
75 AJt 3.391
At5 J7 3.391
AJ t75 3.391
A Jt75 2.826
At75 J 2.826

♣ Missing cards
KQJ52 98764 0.124
J6542 KQ987 0.124
KJ942 Q8765 0.124

Any guess for selected distributions' sum and total line %?
You can ask about any other combinations. I will try to give.
♥Season's greetings and happy New Year Good luck ♥

[gwnn]

abstain

[H_KARLUK]

gwnn, on Dec 25 2008, 07:53 PM, said:

abstain

Really very hard ? I do not think so. Just chain of assumptions needed.

[jillybean]

My brain hurts reading the question, oh that could be too much Xmas cheer too

[H_KARLUK]

jillybean2, on Dec 26 2008, 09:57 AM, said:

My brain hurts reading the question, oh that could be too much Xmas cheer too

No worries, you have many months to find reasonable solutions for this problem.

[cloa513]

Of course, there is nearly zero chance of making the contract unless the spade honours are either onside (can't see it making with five spades onside) or split, there is small chance of KQ doubleton offside, could you endgame KQ x offside - don't thinks so would have to be very bad play by opponents also simply too many top losers to throw in with clubs. Those are only worthwhile probabilities

[gnasher]

If I go down in this contract, will I be excused playing with this partner again?

[cherdano]

H_KARLUK, on Dec 26 2008, 01:03 AM, said:

gwnn, on Dec 25 2008, 07:53 PM, said:

abstain

Really very hard ? I do not think so. Just chain of assumptions needed.

I think the abstain is a protest against the bidding. Both double and 4♠ are so ugly that I quickly closed my browser window whenever I clicked on this thread by mistake.

[jdonn]

cherdano, on Dec 26 2008, 12:27 PM, said:

H_KARLUK, on Dec 26 2008, 01:03 AM, said:

gwnn, on Dec 25 2008, 07:53 PM, said:

abstain

Really very hard ? I do not think so. Just chain of assumptions needed.

I think the abstain is a protest against the bidding.

Partly against the bidding, partly against trying to read and interpret the original post.

[H_KARLUK]

cherdano, on Dec 26 2008, 07:27 PM, said:

H_KARLUK, on Dec 26 2008, 01:03 AM, said:

gwnn, on Dec 25 2008, 07:53 PM, said:

abstain

Really very hard ? I do not think so. Just chain of assumptions needed.

I think the abstain is a protest against the bidding. Both double and 4♠ are so ugly that I quickly closed my browser window whenever I clicked on this thread by mistake.

Do you see "recommended auction" comment with given hands ?

Well, I do not see.

[ASkolnick]

Your odds are A Priori, but your auction is not. There is not an equal chance of different combinations happening based on the fact the East holds 12+ HCP, and LHO has clubs.

First assumption is that west has 4 Clubs and led the 9.

Unless he holds KJ9x and plays 3rd and 5th, it looks like East holds KQJ.
We won't make it unless we pick up:

Spades for 1 loser.

Looks like we need a 3-2 break or both the KQ onside.

Hearts for 1 loser.

Because of the diamond position, I think I need to play West for the AJ of hearts.

Diamonds for 1 loser.

Smothering the Stiff J or Stiff T is better than playing for stiff A of diamonds, but I think it requires the J of hearts in West for entries.

Don't know if its right, but seems reasonable. Haven't figured out the order of play yet.

[H_KARLUK]

I really do not understand something. If someone posts a deal is that means auto sticks he/she bid and played?

I do not care such things. But if anyone wonders it was a short story. I came that table middle of th auction. Declarer played well, brought th contract home. I liked this hand.

While she was playing i asked myself these questions :

How many tricks from each suits i must win?

What can i afford to concede in each suits?

How must i use entries very well and what should be the timing?

The aim i posted that hands is to read other players technical opinions from different countries. Unfortunately it seems I am at wrong address. I am not a bridge teacher. I do not need to give any lesson to anyone. I am just a player like most of you.

I am impressed of that board in MPs tournament and really expected technical analyses here. Instead i am reading emotional comments.

Good or bad. Somewhere and sometime this hand played. And I do not recommend anything.

[nige1]

H_KARLUK, on Dec 25 2008, 02:21 AM, said:

Scoring: MP


Contract 4 ♠
♣9 led. How do you pick suits ?
Auction :
East South West North
1♣   Pass   3♣*     X
Pass 3♠   Pass    4♠
All pass.
*3♣  Inverted

---

Happy Christmas! I reckon that chances are slim. My guess:

• If opponents, lead clubs at every opportunity, they mayl fatally weaken your trumps unless RHO has a doubleton ♠ honour.
  
• RHO who opened the bidding is more likely to hold the red aces. You hope that he has ♦A doubleton or singleton.
  
• You are short of dummy entries, so you would like LHO to hold ♥J; but unfortunately, LHO can rise with ♥J to deprive you of a 2nd ♥ entry to dummy.

You might play RHO for something like ♠Qx ♥Axxx ♦Ax ♣KQJxx,
Hence my guess is ♣A, Finesse ♠T,
Ruff ♣ return, lead ♥ to ♥J, ♥K and ♥A.
Ruff ♣ return in dummy, lead ♦ to ♦Q, Cash ♠A, duck a ♦

[H_KARLUK]

Merry Xmas and a happy new year Nige1. Thanks for your nice analyse. How about to post double dummy last day of this year? Then maybe we can exchange our ideas with a post-mortem.

I can also post full deal on BBO chat room. I smell antipathy tho i am not a selfcentered or arrogant one. So maybe better for me to quit BBO Forums.

It was my first forum experience here. Maybe there are other bridge forums I can visit on web.

[nige1]

H_KARLUK, on Dec 26 2008, 03:56 PM, said:

Merry Xmas and a happy new year Nige1. Thanks for your nice analyse. How about to post double dummy last day of this year? Then maybe we can exchange our ideas with a post-mortem.

I can also post full deal on BBO chat room. I smell antipathy tho i am not a selfcentered or arrogant one. So maybe better for me to quit BBO Forums.

It was my first forum experience here. Maybe there are other bridge forums I can visit on web.

You could try RGB; but don't worry, Karluk: BBO is rife with cynics outdoing each other's sarcastic 1-liners; their bark is worse than their bite (we hope)

[dburn]

It's not really a question of the odds in individual suits, more a question of what distributions consistent with the bidding will allow us to make the contract. Of course, we don't have nearly enough information to allow us to determine this, since we don't know for example:

whether 3♣ denies a four-card major;
whether 3♣, described as "inverted", can be purely pre-emptive, or whether East is expected to bid 3NT with a balanced 18 or so opposite;
what range 1NT opening East-West play (Nigel quotes an East hand of ♠Qx ♥Axxx ♦Ax ♣KQJxx, but many Easts would open 1NT with that playing 15-17).

At the table one would just get on with things: win the lead in dummy and play a spade to the ten; ruff the club return and play a second spade, requiring the suit to come in for no more losers; play on hearts next, with one's later play being determined by what has happened in spades. I expect that it will prove convenient in most circumstances to play West for the jack of hearts, but since I have no idea what will happen in spades I cannot conjecture further.

[nige1]

dburn, on Dec 26 2008, 10:58 PM, said:

It's not really a question of the odds in individual suits, more a question of what distributions consistent with the bidding will allow us to make the contract. Of course, we don't have nearly enough information to allow us to determine this, since we don't know for example:

whether 3♣ denies a four-card major;
whether 3♣, described as "inverted", can be purely pre-emptive, or whether East is expected to bid 3NT with a balanced 18 or so opposite;
what range 1NT opening East-West play (Nigel quotes an East hand of ♠Qx  ♥Axxx  ♦Ax  ♣KQJxx, but many Easts would open 1NT with that playing 15-17).

At the table one would just get on with things: win the lead in dummy and play a spade to the ten; ruff the club return and play a second spade, requiring the suit to come in for no more losers; play on hearts next, with one's later play being determined by what has happened in spades. I expect that it will prove convenient in most circumstances to play West for the jack of hearts, but since I have no idea what will happen in spades I cannot conjecture further.

Chances are slimmer than I surmised. On my line (or David's), if RHO has the hand I suggested, then he will duck a ♥ lead. Perhaps we need ♥ 3-3 .

[H_KARLUK]

dburn, on Dec 27 2008, 05:58 AM, said:

It's not really a question of the odds in individual suits, more a question of what distributions consistent with the bidding will allow us to make the contract. Of course, we don't have nearly enough information to allow us to determine this, since we don't know for example:

whether 3♣ denies a four-card major;
whether 3♣, described as "inverted", can be purely pre-emptive, or whether East is expected to bid 3NT with a balanced 18 or so opposite;
what range 1NT opening East-West play (Nigel quotes an East hand of ♠Qx ♥Axxx ♦Ax ♣KQJxx, but many Easts would open 1NT with that playing 15-17).

At the table one would just get on with things: win the lead in dummy and play a spade to the ten; ruff the club return and play a second spade, requiring the suit to come in for no more losers; play on hearts next, with one's later play being determined by what has happened in spades. I expect that it will prove convenient in most circumstances to play West for the jack of hearts, but since I have no idea what will happen in spades I cannot conjecture further.

Hello,

Yes 3♣ denies 4 crds M suit
3♣ preemptive
1 NT 15-17

Thanks
Hamdi

[foo]

H_KARLUK, on Dec 25 2008, 02:21 AM, said:

East,E/W,MP,
532_KT87_K943_AT
+
AJT74_Q95_Q862_3

♣9 led. How do you pick suits?

Auction :
East South West North
1♣-Pa-3♣*-X;
3♠-Pa-4♠-ap.
*3♣  Inverted

The apriori odds are not how to analyze the likelihood of where the cards are.

E opened the bidding 1C in 1st.
=they do not have a 5+ card suit higher ranking than ♣'s
=they rate to have 2+ QT.

W made a Inverted Minor preemptive raise at Unfavorable.
=they rate to have 0-3 ♥'s
=they rate to have 4+♣ and be shapely or 5+♣'s if they are not.
=they have 4-7 HCP.

=We have 19. That means E has 21-(4...7)= 14-17 HCP.
=Since 14-17 HCP mostly overlaps Their 1N Opening range, Opener rates to be shapely.

Until we start to get a count on E's points and shape and can further constrain their holdings, E is something ~4x more likely to hold any of (SK, HA, DA, DK) and ~3x more likely to hold any of (SQ, CQ, missing J's).

Apriori, We have 4 losers. There is nothing We can do about losing the ♥A and ♦A. Therefore trumps must be split honors or both honors in E's hand.

Nige's line is pretty good. Can we improve it? Hmmm.
The've already played 2 ♣'s. if ♣'s are 5+5, They can only play them 3x more.
(Better would be if ♣'s are 6+4 or 7+3 with E holding all the critical non-♣ cards.)
If cards are where We need them and we Time this right, We have a shot.

=Win CA.
=Take S hook.
a= SJ holds and both followed, bang down the SA.
b= W wins SK or SQ, returns a ♣, we ruff, then play SA.
=play H9 from hand, intending to run it if not covered.
a= if 9 holds, We just got lucky.
b= if E wins HA, cashes ♠, plays ♣, We ruff with last trump, play ♥'s from top, hook ♦Q, play ♦
c= if E wins HJ, we're going Down. A lot.

The goal is to leave Them with a high trump and establish ♥'s as force.

[H_KARLUK]

Thank you so much foo. Very nice point. The last day of this year I'll post double dummy. I await thinkers. I would be delighted to read technical comments about the line she picked.

I do not know anyone watch one of Sylvester Stallone's movie. There he was playing a cop detective. One day very little tall but crazy momma visited him from another city to be her son's guest for a few weeks

Our local player is like her twin. We all have respect and sympathy to see her in tournaments. She is considered as an advanced. She had an heart bypass surgery 5 years ago. But she's still a dynamic opp in my standards.

Hamdi

Meanwhile this saturday (15.30pm New York time) #687 IMPs Pairs "boom boom boom - 2008 ends" Open to all forum members and their guests. If your registry try fails pls contact me on BBO. I use same screen nick H_Karluk there.

Thanks ♥