Posted 2008-December-29, 18:51
Ok I meant to post this up last night, but since this one still seems open...
It seems obvious to win and cash three rounds of clubs ending in dummy, leaving ♣8 facing ♣Tx.
From here, the available lines seem to be
a: ♣8 not overtaking, then heart finesse
b: overtake ♣8 and then
b1: diamond -- hoping to endplay LHO
b2: cash ♠A and then diamond
b3: cash ♥A and then heart
And LHO holdings
no kings and 5 diamonds (we need to finesse -- and this is a truly sick overcall so I will discount it)
no kings and 6 diamonds (we need to finesse)
no kings and 7 diamonds (the finesse line and line b3 work)
both kings and any number of diamonds (we need to follow any of the strip lines)
only the heart king and any number of diamonds (we need to guess which strip line to follow, the finesse line fails unless the heart king is stiff)
only the spade king and any number of diamonds (we need to guess which strip line to follow, the finesse line works)
So playing for the finesse line seems just wrong, it only gains when the heart king is onside AND either we would have misguessed which endplay line to take, or LHO has exactly 6 diamonds.
So what happens after cashing off all the clubs?
Edit -- so given that the endplay line is a strong favorite, I'll play to win the third club in hand so I can make LHO blind pitch on the fourth club -- thus increasing the chances he is not blanking a king on fourth street. I'll probably play for his card on fifth street to be the one that concedes my ninth trick, and play as follows
if he pitches a heart on the last club, ♥A, diamond
if he pitches a spade on the last club, ♠A, diamond
if he pitches a diamond on the last club, ♥A, heart
"It is not enough to be a good player. You must also play well." -- Tarrasch