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Popular Vote?

Poll: Obama's Margin? (29 member(s) have cast votes)

Obama's Margin?

  1. He loses (1 votes [3.45%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.45%

  2. 0-2% (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. 2.1-4% (3 votes [10.34%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.34%

  4. 4.1-6% (9 votes [31.03%])

    Percentage of vote: 31.03%

  5. 6.1-8% (7 votes [24.14%])

    Percentage of vote: 24.14%

  6. 8.1-10% (4 votes [13.79%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.79%

  7. 10.1-12% (3 votes [10.34%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.34%

  8. 12.1-14% (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. Higher than 14.1% (2 votes [6.90%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.90%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 09:39

As a compliment to Gerben's, what will be the margin in the popular vote?
"Phil" on BBO
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#2 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 09:58

5.0%.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#3 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 10:21

5.1%
Alderaan delenda est
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#4 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 12:10

7% +/- 1.5%
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#5 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 13:18

Interesting data point:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cel...-continued.html
Obama led 9.4 among polls that include cell phones, and 5.1 among those that don't.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#6 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 18:30

What odds would you give a McCain supporter on a major upset tomorrow?

I gave 11:1. I've collected the $10, but have to pay out if the impossible happens. The guy is a former actuary, so I'm probably not getting that great a return.
"Phil" on BBO
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#7 User is offline   crazy4hoop 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 18:41

The debacle of 2000 repeats itself and we won't know for a few days?
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#8 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 18:56

56-43-1
The Grand Design, reflected in the face of Chaos...it's a fluke!
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#9 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 20:49

I'm guessing about 4%.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#10 User is offline   matmat 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 20:55

pi + e
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#11 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 21:34

You are such a math geek matmat.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#12 User is offline   JoAnneM 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 21:52

All I know is I cancelled my bridge date for tomorrow evening.
Regards, Jo Anne
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#13 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 23:01

3.8%... he will win big in quite a few states, but not by as much as the usually democratic leaning polls indicate.
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#14 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2008-November-03, 23:03

pclayton, on Nov 3 2008, 07:30 PM, said:

What odds would you give a McCain supporter on a major upset tomorrow?

I gave 11:1. I've collected the $10, but have to pay out if the impossible happens. The guy is a former actuary, so I'm probably not getting that great a return.

I was offered 10:1 but passed...now had it been 15:1 or better yet 20:1 I'd have taken it.
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#15 User is offline   matmat 

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Posted 2008-November-04, 01:10

han, on Nov 3 2008, 10:34 PM, said:

You are such a math geek matmat.

sorry.
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#16 User is offline   jchiu 

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Posted 2008-November-04, 01:16

I've offered some coworkers either side of 5% plus a half a voter at 1.9 odds. That's where I draw the line.
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#17 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2008-November-04, 01:50

jchiu, on Nov 4 2008, 01:16 AM, said:

I've offered some coworkers either side of 5% plus a half a voter at 1.9 odds.  That's where I draw the line.

I would take the 5% or better at these odds, and I don't think it's close.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#18 User is offline   dicklont 

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Posted 2008-November-04, 02:28

JoAnneM, on Nov 3 2008, 10:52 PM, said:

All I know is I cancelled my bridge date for tomorrow evening.

I wouldn't.
We must keep things in perspective, don't we? :P
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