[awm]

DrTodd13, on Oct 26 2008, 04:54 PM, said:

Still, when in doubt, overbid.

I disagree with this statement.

First off, opener's 11-18 range is much more likely to be 11-14 than 15-18 even though these are both the same number of point totals. So if you are forced to guess, either making a pass that could miss game opposite the very max of the max 17-18 hands or a bid that could get too high opposite 11-14, you will tend to win by being conservative.

Second, what is opener to do after your wide-ranging raise? If he takes the same advice (when in doubt, overbid) you will get to game on 22 high with great frequency. Good luck with that.

Third, opener can game force with 18 hcp or a good 17. Yes, it is possible to get too high this way. But it is also possible to get too high by inviting with 7-counts. And at least you have the benefit that when partner has 5-8 hcp (i.e. responder too weak to invite) he is more likely to be at the top end of the range than the bottom, whereas when partner has 11-18 (i.e. opener too weak to force game) he is more likely to be at the bottom end of the range than the top!

[rogerclee]

jdonn, on Oct 26 2008, 03:46 PM, said:

rogerclee, on Oct 26 2008, 02:20 PM, said:

Josh is a beginner/int now?

I thought you were all about talking about the bridge instead of personal attacks

Not sure if you are being sarcastic or not but obviously my comment was because OP stated:

Quote

If you're a beginner or intermediate please answer this poll with the least number of points you would generally have and find a pass of 2♣ unacceptable?

I took that to mean he wanted this poll to be for beginner/int only. Of course technically the poll and the thread are seperate, but adv/exp posters can bias a poll pretty easily especially when they are a national and world champ!

[ochinko]

DrTodd13, on Oct 27 2008, 12:54 AM, said:

I think that 2N should show more strength than a preference to one of opener's minors.  Maybe with a very weak hand one should bid 2♦ (with at least 2♦) even with 4+♣ to give opener another chance.  Personally, I think if my system presented me with this problem then I wouldn't play that system given there are other systems that don't have nearly as huge a hole in it.  Still, when in doubt, overbid.  With a terrible misfit I'd look to get out as cheap as possible but if I have any kind of a fit I'd strive to bid again.  True, we might end up at 3♣ with 18 points but that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

2NT invites a NT game. 3♣ isn't a simple suit preference because you could have passed 2♣. It should be a similar invitation to 5♣ or 3NT so it shouldn't be weaker, on the contrary. If you invite with any garbage 9 most of the time you're going to be either down at 3♣ when partner is minimal, or down at 5♣ when his hand is near the top.

Of course, there are also good 8's and 9's that deserve an invitation. My 3♣ would promise at least something like Axxx-x-xxx-Axxxx.

[Roupoil]

Interesting answers here, I must confess I thought totally normal to rebid with all 9 points hands and almost all 8 points hands. It wouldn't occur to me that one can pass with your first exemple ochinko (9 points and fit, I bid 3!c). But I see now that you don't have the same conception of the rebid of 3!c as I have. For me, 3!c is just fit and 8-10 points (ok, I can pass some ugly 8 points depanding on scoring). The point I don't understand is when you say we will bid poor games if inviting with 3!c on such hands. For me, an opener in the 12-14 zone will almost always pass 3!c, and will only accept a game in the 15-17 zone. And I don't really think it is so rare opener is 15-17, all (13)54 hands with 15-17 points would bid this way, and I suppose you would invite game facing for example a strong no trump with an 8-point hand with known fit, don't you ?

[vuroth]

jdonn, on Oct 26 2008, 02:17 PM, said:

For me 9. Well 100% I would never pass with 10, and I think over 99% I would never pass with 9, but the hand might possibly exist where I would.

This was actually what I was thinking, but this isn't a subject I'd given a lot of thought.

Good thread for sure.

V

[ochinko]

To return to the original question. Along with what Fred and Adam (awm) have written, you can take a look at these Probabilities.

The thing is that the probability of having a particular number of high card points is not evenly spread, but is at its peak at 9-10 HCP, and then gradually diminishes. If you target your invites to the possibility that partner has 17-18 you'll be able to find the proper game in 4% of all cases whereas 14-15 will take you to the right game in 10% of the hands. Of course, those percentages change in absolute value if you know beforehand that partner has at least 11 HCP but the ratio of the possibilities won't change much. So it's safe to say that targeting 14-15 instead of 17-18 HCP gives you about 2.5 times better ROI as it is 2.5 times more likely to be found.

And yes, it means that you're going to miss some cold games, but the probabilities will be on your side. It's the same as playing for a 3:2 break (68%) versus a simple finesse. You know that you'll be wrong sometimes, you just want to minimize those occurrences.

[ASkolnick]

6 since I have started to play thta 1D-1m-2c is a one round force. We tend not to bid horrible minors.

You have the one disadvantage of not being able to play in 2C, but you get that back in several ways:

1) Intermediate hands don't have to jump.
2) You can shape out at the two level if needed.
3) Partner can reshow his major to possibly play in a better fit.


Semi-Balanced hands with 2-2-(5-4) in the minors are opened our appropriate NT range.

But with 9 I will bid on without such agreement.