[Zar]

One fragment of the recent research, as promised. I just copy one of the dozens of runs of one of the independent contributors, John Gallucci in Florida.

Here are the numbers for 250,000 boards for EITHER partnership having Game/Slam/Grand:
(HCP)

  Opener's Range       Game  %        Small Slam        Grand Slam
  --------------     ----------       ----------        ----------
     12 - 14       34375  13.75     1442   0.577        27   0.011
     15 - 17       30411  12.16     1970   0.788        84   0.034
     18 - 20       15454   6.18     1611   0.644        90   0.036
     21 - 23        4424   1.77      784   0.314        55   0.022
     24 - 26         694   0.28      216   0.086        15   0.006
     27 - 29          34   0.01       29   0.012         7   0.003
                     ----------      ------------      ------------
                   85392  34.16     6053   2.42        278   0.11 

Here are the numbers for 250,000 boards for EITHER partnership having Game/Slam/Grand:
(Zar Points)

  Opener's Range       Game  %        Small Slam        Grand Slam
  --------------     ----------       ----------        ----------
     26 - 30       72981  29.19     6401   2.560      1192   0.477
     31 - 35       67267  26.91     7377   2.951      1994   0.798
     36 - 40       26790  10.72     6539   2.616      1841   0.736
     41 - 45        3781   1.51     2704   1.082      1048   0.419
     46 - 50         145   0.06      285   0.114       261   0.104
     51 - 55           1   0.00        4   0.002        17   0.007
                     ----------      ------------      ------------
                  170965  68.39    23310   9.32       6353   2.54  

So for YOUR partnership having Game/Slam/Grand in HCP the numbers are 2 times less:

Game - 17 %
Slam - 1.2 %
Grand - 0.06 %

against for Zar Points:

Game - 34 %
Slam - 4.6 %
Grand - 1.2 %

which in turn means that you bid

Game - 2 TIMES more often;
Slam - 4 TIMES more often;
Grand - 20 TIMES more often.

Put it another way, since statistically in a match of 96 boards there are 32 Games, 8 slams, and 2 Grands (average) you would be expected to get 32-8-2 against 16-2-0 for the opponents in Games/Slams/Grands.

Sounds unbelievable, but that's because the "base" is 26 HCP for a Game, 32 for Slam, 35 for Grand, while in practice expert bridge players are MUCH more aggressive, with or without Zar Points. Yet, these results are a good indicator about how much more aggressive Zar Points are compared to the "take-it-easy" bridge.


Cheers:

ZAR

[cnszsun]

Scoring: IMP

2♠-4♠

---

A deal played on BBO.
If we calculate the zar points, initially North has 27, south has 37 after North's opening. After south raise spade, North can upgrade his hand to 30 (2x1 extra trump and one honor in turmp), 37+30=67, we may have a grand slam. In fact, we really have a grand slam, interesting?
I wonder if we always open North with 1♠, someday we don't have fit but partner has some value in side suit, he will choose NT contract (i believe he may be disappointed with my 8HCP unless i never let him play NT). Is that possible my hand can be overvalued?

[Zar]

*** cnszsun wrote: In fact, we really have a grand slam, interesting?
<

A lot of Grands remain unnoticed or marked as “who da hell’s gonna bid this one” especially on middle-level bridge – people are happy with the fact they have reached a Slam (IF they haven’t played the Grand on Game level, of course :-). If you open 3S, there is a good chance you’ll play this Grand in a 4♠ Game, PD placing you with KQxxxxx. A good player with probably explore 6S anyway here, though, having in mind H as the suit for additional tricks, waiting for your cue-bid in D (if you have agreed on Italian-style cue-bids where you can cue-bid even a singleton, let alone K). Note also, that here even a BW would do, since South has both the A of trumps AND a second control in D (AND all the rest of the aces :-) but you would miss it if N has a singleton D.

>
I wonder if we always open North with 1♠, someday we don't have fit
<

No, you only open when you have a fit.

Just kidding :-)

The risk of misfit (in terms of having only 7-card fits) hangs on everybody. Note, that if you a short on HCP, you compensate with Controls, so you usually have even the Quick Tricks requirement for the opening (or much better HCP).

>
but partner has some value in side suit, he will choose NT contract (i believe he may be disappointed with my 8HCP unless i never let him play NT). Is that possible my hand can be overvalued?
<

Your PD knows you have 26 Zar Points for the opening, and after biding 2 suits or showing a distributive hand otherwise, he knows you have at least half of your values from distribution. Note also, that if you don’t have fit, but no obvious misfit is bid, you’d have 2 average misfit hands against each other with the average expected 11 distributive Zar Points (I am not talking 4333 or 4432 even) for a total of 22 points “wasted” in distribution. This still leaves you with 30 points of HCP + Controls in the combined hands, right? Yet again – if you “see” a double-misfit bid, you have to quit ASAP anyway, in any system.

ZAR

[Trpltrbl]

cnszsun, on Apr 19 2004, 08:16 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

2♠-4♠

---

A deal played on BBO.
If we calculate the zar points, initially North has 27, south has 37 after North's opening. After south raise spade, North can upgrade his hand to 30 (2x1 extra trump and one honor in turmp), 37+30=67, we may have a grand slam. In fact, we really have a grand slam, interesting?
I wonder if we always open North with 1♠, someday we don't have fit but partner has some value in side suit, he will choose NT contract (i believe he may be disappointed with my 8HCP unless i never let him play NT). Is that possible my hand can be overvalued?

I open that hand 1♠ always, and I doubt we are going to play this in 3 NT
Getting to the Grand is possible, but also a lucky one since if you put a ♥honoor with the 4 card suit, you will not make. But getting to 6♠ will already get you enough IMPS or MP's. It's a perfect hand to show why ZARpoints is so good. Showing the power of length, and Aces and Kings.

Mike

[Trpltrbl]

inquiry, on Apr 16 2004, 04:24 PM, said:

Well, I am going to respectifully disagree with this approach. If a hand is wildly distributional, I open on less and less hcp. If you wait to bid, several bad things might happen (I am not worried about passing out).

1) The bidding may be at an unacceptibly high level on your next time to bid
2) Your partner will have a hard time envisionally distributional-based slams and such a strong playing stregnth if you passed initially.. that is, it is very difficult to catch up on strength.

Ben

I agree with Ben 100%, first time ever I think hehehe.
Opening first does 2 things, making it easy on pd ( good thing ) and making if harder on opps ( good thing ).

Mike

[inquiry]

cnszsun, on Apr 19 2004, 08:16 AM, said:

I wonder if we always open North with 1♠, someday we don't have fit but partner has some value in side suit, he will choose NT contract (i believe he may be disappointed with my 8HCP unless i never let him play NT). Is that possible my hand can be overvalued?

Scoring: IMP

---

I would have opened this hand 1♠ before I ever heard of ZAR points. Here are the problems.

1) For 2♠, the suit is too long, and it has a lot more playing potential than most my weak twos.

2) For 3♠, the side diamond ace, is a value I would prefer not to hold, and I have control in ALL FOUR SUITS.

3) The suit intermediates are not good enough for a naymats or other 4 level bid.

4) So by defalult, I open one. Even by the RULE of 18 standard, this is an acceptable opener (8 hcp+11 cards = 19!!).

[mikestar]

cnszsun, on Apr 19 2004, 01:16 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

2♠-4♠

---

... I wonder if we always open North with 1♠, someday we don't have fit but partner has some value in side suit, he will choose NT contract (i believe he may be disappointed with my 8HCP unless i never let him play NT). Is that possible my hand can be overvalued?

With 11 or more cards in two suits, I never let my partner play in NT. We have a 7 card spade fit even if partner is void and this is unlikely. Even then spades are fairly likely to play considerably better than NT. In NT the spades are worthless opposite shortness, as trumps they will win several tricks.

[the hog]

"I would have opened this hand 1♠ before I ever heard of ZAR points."

I would open this 4S. Burgess' rule: 7-4 shapes are to be opened at the 4 level.

[Zar]

*** TheHog wrote: "I would have opened this hand 1♠ before I ever heard of ZAR points." I would open this 4S. Burgess' rule: 7-4 shapes are to be opened at the 4 level.
<

I didn’t know there were special rules designated to the 7-4 beasts specifically ... As Garozzo says, “You’ll have to wait another 20 years to make use of that one :-)”. But anyway – regarding the 4S opening, the fog you are going throw on the table is so thick, that I am afraid you’ll have you PD looking for his eyeballs on the floor :-) He STILL will be able to ask a BW due to his own possession of third-round control in D and better controls in all the other suits (in this particular case).

ZAR

[the hog]

But anyway – regarding the 4S opening, the fog you are going throw on the table is so thick, that I am afraid you’ll have you PD looking for his eyeballs on the floor :-)

lol. Love the comment. Burgess, of course, is NZ expert Steve Burgess.

[Zar]

I cannot find the thread where we discussed the 5-3-1 method versus Zar Points, WTC (Winning Trick Count) etc. To avoid duplicate posting, I just want to say that I posted the extended results in the original thread "Zar Points - Useful or waste of energy".

I'll go through this thread tomorrow and see if there are any unanswered questions.

Make it a great day:

ZAR

[Zar]

cnszsun wrote: "After south raise spade, North can upgrade his hand to 30 (2x1 extra trump and one honor in turmp), 37+30=67, we may have a grand slam. In fact, we really have a grand slam, interesting?
<

The area above 3NT is easy to prove by whatever means you chose, Mike. The only concern about Zar Points is actually related to Part Scores (as opposite to the Grands you are talking about :-) and NT contracts.
For this reason, I just ran the Part Score and 3NT boards from the Standard GIB boards and you can have a look at the base thread "Zar Points - useful or waste of energy".

Games, Slams, and Grands you can check the way you please :-)

Cheers:

ZAR

[inquiry]

Watching the quarterfinals of the US championship, Fred and Brad (moss) had a hamd just made for ZAR Points. Not unureassonably both tables rested comfortably in 4♠ on this one, after all there is only 20 hcp between the two hands. This is a case of a perfect fit.. but still, ZAR + fit evaluation rates this hand pair as "grand slam" material. The hands were (from memory, so I will use x's some places).

Scoring: IMP

---

Before either player bids... West (Fred) has 12 hcp, 13 DP, 5 contol pts = 30 Zar
East (Brad) has 8 hcp, 17 DP, 2 control = 27 Zar points, you can deduced one for the singleton ACE, bringing total to total 56.

After a 1♥-1♠, using Zar Fit+, West gets plus 2 for spade honors, and +2 for ruffing value (difference in spades and diamonds 2 cards or more). Bringing his total to 34. When Fred raises ♠, East gets a few extra. The ♥ ace is upgraded, the now worth not 5 (one for downgrade of being singleton), but rather upgragde to 7 (+1 for being in partners suit). In addition, East has three extra spades and a singleton, so that is worth 6 extra points (2 for each extra spade). The total now increases to from 26 to 35, So the ZAR total is 69 (62 for "slam", 67 for grand slam). A cue-bidding sequence discovering no top loser in ♦ then blackwood finding out off a key card ends up in 6.

So how would a simple Zar point evaluator rate this one? IF it counts just ZAR points (instead of ZAR+fit), the total would be 56 or 57 (depending on how it treats singleton Aces). amd say to underbid by one or two tricks? Or, maybe it would revaluate and say the total was 69, so Zar+fit overbids by 1. Good thing about real world hands, cue-bidding and blackwood can keep you at safe level. Using Zar points and normal bidding tools, you would land directly on the magic spot (perhaps..as it is easier to add all zar points looking at both hands).

Ben

[luke warm]

hey ben, this also ties in with our discussion on raising major suits... how does hardy's 'over j/s' work out on this one? or do you think it's better suited for an 'under j/s' (assuming one plays both conventions)?

zar seems excellent for initial evaluation and even re-evaluation, so maybe the west hand qualifies for the maxi j/s... do you think fred would have looked had they played this way?

1♠ : 3N
4♣ : 4♦

now all fred needs to know about are the trumps and club control... think he'd look?

[inquiry]

Hi jimmy,

The bidding would naturally begin 1♥-1♠, so over or under jumpshifts are not an issue. The real question is, is Fred's hand worth something more than a tame 2♠ bid and if fred only bids 2♠ is brad's hand worth more than a mere leap to game?

As I read Zar's bidding theory, Fred's hand upgrades to 34 pts, his partner's minimum for 1♠ response is around 18. 34+18 = 52. So in that case, Fred is good enough to force to game. In actually, I respond with less than 18 ZAR points from time to time, so I would simply invite. In fact, if Fred evaluates his hand this way (34 and partner has to have at least 18 to respond), then an immediate 4♦ splinter over 1♠ is a possibility and if so they would still be bidding.

Once Fred shows a ♠ raise, South's hand becomes golden, also upgrading to 34 Zar points. 26+34 is only 60, but a 2♠ raise could be more than a bare 26. I think maybe a slam try, gentle would be in order, although I realize that Brad is very control poor, and trying for slam might get too high. A nice 4♣ splinter here might get the ball rolling.

Misho and I would might bid this hand thusly,

1♥ - 1♠
2NT - 3♥
4♦ - 4NT
5♣ - 6♠
Pass

We use 2NT as very good ♠ raise, strongly invite to game or better on this auction. If Misho thought his hand was not quite as good as 2NT, he could bid 3♠ instead, with a similar result. 3♥ here is tell me your short suit, and 4♦ shows a singleton ♦. The rest, as they say is easy.

We use the jump to 2NT by opener or responder to show major suit fit.. sort of jacoby 2NT by opener. We separate between really good hands, regular good hands with support by bidding 2NT with the better hands.

Ben

[luke warm]

ok, i forgot brad opened 1♥, i was looking at it as if fred opened 1♠

[Zar]

Hi, guys:

Just to let you know that the Zar Count Machine can be tried on the new website:

http://WWW.ZarPoints.COM

You can play PBN files from various Championship and get the results from the
"bidding" in LTC, Goren, Bergen, Laurence, WTC etc. You can also make
your interpretations of the ACTUAL bids at the table and test it as you play
round by round.

I also posted the new Zar Points Bidding Backbone - see the other thread for
details.

Please let me know if you have any questions / suggestions.

Make it a great day:

ZAR