[effervesce]

Scoring: IMP

Bidding went 1C-1S-4S-6S. Plan the play on the lead of the ten of diamonds.

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[gnasher]

I play for an elimination: ♦A throwing a heart, ♦ ruff, ♠A, ♦ ruff, 3 rounds of clubs throwing a heart, spade exit. It's better to use ♠A before the club entry, in case someone has a singleton club.

[pclayton]

This is a cousin to the hand I posted last week. I'll see if I can do better on this one

Anything to tell us about the opponents? I ask because this is an odd lead. I really don't believe diamonds are 8-2 here. I think LHO is pulling my leg with KQJT, which seems to be the only holding where he can safely pull this stunt. I don't think LHO has KQJT-6th of diamonds - he would have overcalled with this and slightly more even at adverse. So maximum of 4-5 diamonds in LHO I would I'd say.

I may be reading WAY too much into this lead, and I will repeat the caveat about the opponents. If they are sheer randoms, then some of this can be discounted.

After ruffing the 1st diamond, Two lines present themselves.

1. Low spade to the J. I will make with K, K8 or KT on. If I do get KT8 onside, I have a choice of leaving the hearts alone and playing for split honors, or playings LHO for 0, 1 or 2 hearts, which is nominally 50%, but goes up (a little - I'm putting LHO on 4-5 diamonds max) once LHO has three spades. So - ♦A, ruff a ♦, ♥K, heart to A and then 3 clubs, and then the spade. I estimate the chances of this line are about 44-45%.

2. Play off the ♠A and strip out the hand. More on this later. I'll get a stiff ♠K in either hand (26%). Assuming nothing interesting happens, I will play ♦A, ruff a diamond and then the clubs. This is superior to cashing hearts first, since if the 3rd club is ruffed, I can survive, but I can't if a heart honor is ruffed. Clubs would be 4-4 / 5-3 and I'm already playing diamonds to be 5-5 or 4-6.

Therefore the hand that wins the spade can be 2=4=4=3 at a minimum, but 2=0=6=5 at a maximum, so 5 hearts can be eliminated with the spade hand.

So I'm putting (a little arbitrarily) the chances of the spade King holding 0-2 hearts (along with a minimum of seven minor suit cards), around 55%. This gives us an additional of (.74 x .55 - around 41%) in additional to the stiff kings. I also get a few pips for QJ doubletons. I'll say this is around 70% and it might be a little better than that even.

If the 3rd club gets ruffed I'll play for split hearts obviously. Also, I'll obviously know about 5-0 or 4-1 hearts anyway prior to the throw in.

[effervesce]

I played the hand as on Andy's line, playing for elimination and for split heart honors (and made). Later I realised that cashing the AK of hearts is slightly better than playing for split heart honors as the person with Kx spades is more likely to hold a doubleton/singleton heart (as you have mentioned) - this line also makes on the given layout.

[pclayton]

effervesce, on Oct 19 2008, 02:24 PM, said:

I played the hand as on Andy's line, playing for elimination and for split heart honors (and made). Later I realised that cashing the AK of hearts is slightly better than playing for split heart honors as the person with Kx spades is more likely to hold a doubleton/singleton heart - this line also makes on the given layout.

So what was the diamond 10 lead all about?

[effervesce]

pclayton, on Oct 19 2008, 05:25 PM, said:

effervesce, on Oct 19 2008, 02:24 PM, said:

I played the hand as on Andy's line, playing for elimination and for split heart honors (and made). Later I realised that cashing the AK of hearts is slightly better than playing for split heart honors as the person with Kx spades is more likely to hold a doubleton/singleton heart (as you have mentioned) - this line also makes on the given layout.

So what was the diamond 10 lead all about?

He led the ten from KT7543

Scoring: IMP

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