[wenjc]

How to get 6H? any system ,if you like
AXX
X
AQJXXX
KXX

QXXX
AKQXXXX
X
A

1D-?

[han]

Here is an auction to 6H:

1D - 1H
2D - 2S
2NT - 3H
3NT - 4C
4D - 5H
6H

[pclayton]

Slam is good only because of the ♦J. You can't effectively combine chances in ♠ and ♦ without it.

I can't see getting to slam with any kind of certainty. Han's auction looks reasonable, but I'm sure he would bid it the same without the ♦J.

[Cascade]

pclayton, on Oct 19 2008, 07:43 AM, said:

Slam is good only because of the ♦J. You can't effectively combine chances in ♠ and ♦ without it.

I can't see getting to slam with any kind of certainty. Han's auction looks reasonable, but I'm sure he would bid it the same without the ♦J.

We frequently bid slams that are not "certain" and it is good practice to do so.

I often use reasoning like:

"Slam will be cold (or very good) if partner has the ♦J and will have some play without it". Altogether at the point I have to make the slam decision this means it is a good slam to bid even if when the dummy comes without the ♦J or whatever I am in a 20 or 30% slam.

I can even imagine a situation in which slam would be no play if partner has none of the hoped for cards but with multiple possiblities that I cannot find out about it is still the right decision to bid it.

Here is my auction

1♦ 1♥
2♦ 2NT*
3♦** 3♥*
3NT 4♥***
4♠**** 4NT****
5♣***** 6♥*****
* forcing
** six good diamonds not three hearts
*** more slammish than bidding 4♥ on the previous round
**** RKCB and 0 or 3
***** Queen ask; yes with no king

some other response to the queen ask is possible either showing no kings but other extras (distribution and or queens) or pretending that the club shortage is a king.

Note that opener here does not know what responder has outside of the excellent trump suit but knowing that responder is very slammish and that opener has a good (slam suitable - controls) maximum is enough to bid a reasonable slam.

[cherdano]

Cascade, on Oct 18 2008, 01:58 PM, said:

pclayton, on Oct 19 2008, 07:43 AM, said:

Slam is good only because of the ♦J. You can't effectively combine chances in ♠ and ♦ without it.

I can't see getting to slam with any kind of certainty. Han's auction looks reasonable, but I'm sure he would bid it the same without the ♦J.

We frequently bid slams that are not "certain" and it is good practice to do so.

I often use reasoning like:

"Slam will be cold (or very good) if partner has the ♦J and will have some play without it". Altogether at the point I have to make the slam decision this means it is a good slam to bid even if when the dummy comes without the ♦J or whatever I am in a 20 or 30% slam.

I can even imagine a situation in which slam would be no play if partner has none of the hoped for cards but with multiple possiblities that I cannot find out about it is still the right decision to bid it.

Except that here slam is 68% with ♦J, not cold. If you don't know whether opener has ♦J, I think you don't want to be in slam.

It is close but I think 5♥ is a slight overbid. We already showed slam interest opposite a minimum with no fit, and partner will know that spade cards are good.

However, I think
1D 1H
2D 2S
2N 3H
3N 4C
4D 4H
4S 4N ...

is a good auction. Having denied a fit, opener has a great hand to cooperate in a slam try, he isn't that far away from a 3♦ rebid after all.

[TimG]

wenjc, on Oct 18 2008, 12:30 PM, said:

How to get 6H? any system ,if you like
AXX
X
AQJXXX
KXX

QXXX
AKQXXXX
X
A

1D-?

-2H
3D-3H

would seem to get you there (with or without the Diamond Jack).

[gnasher]

cherdano, on Oct 18 2008, 09:07 PM, said:

Except that here slam is 68% with ♦J, not cold.

Less than that, surely? On a low spade lead, you have to guess whether to play low, risking a ruff, or to play high, planning to lead a spade to the queen later. A spade lead from the king isn't inconceivable, especially if LHO has ♦K.

[mike777]

wenjc, on Oct 18 2008, 12:30 PM, said:

How to get 6H? any system ,if you like
AXX
X
AQJXXX
KXX

QXXX
AKQXXXX
X
A

1D-?

I can understand missing 6H here.

South decides whether they force to 6h or not. I cannot find J of D I cannot find Q of D.
South with 3.5 loser hand may just force to 6h after:
1d=1h
2d=2s
2nt=3h
etc...

[pclayton]

gnasher, on Oct 18 2008, 02:43 PM, said:

cherdano, on Oct 18 2008, 09:07 PM, said:

Except that here slam is 68% with ♦J, not cold.

Less than that, surely? On a low spade lead, you have to guess whether to play low, risking a ruff, or to play high, planning to lead a spade to the queen later. A spade lead from the king isn't inconceivable, especially if LHO has ♦K.

A spade lead would seem to increase the chances of making 6♥ to better than 68%.

While you would go down immediately when spades are 5-1, you have the chance of making with trump 4-1, with the ♦K coming down Kx or Kxx if LHO led from the ♠K.

♦Kx / Kxx would indeed be the most vulnerable diamond holding when we have advertised many major cards.

[gnasher]

I was discussing the chances of 6♥ making on best defence. Best defence would involve them:
(a) Leading a spade when that's their best chance to defeat the contract, and
(B) Not leading a spade when that would let through a contract that was otherwise going off.

[rogerclee]

han, on Oct 18 2008, 10:46 AM, said:

Here is an auction to 6H:

1D - 1H
2D - 2S
2NT - 3H
3NT - 4C
4D - 5H
6H

This auction seems totally unrealistic and off to me.

The 3N bid in particular I really disagree with, north has an excellent hand for slam purposes and also a quite suit oriented hand and I think 3S stands out. Would you honestly not follow the 1D, 2D, 2N, 3N sequence with the same hand with no spade ace?

In context of this 3N bid, 4C already is a wild overbid and I think south should be more worried about making game than making a slam. North has made very discouraging moves for our hand at every opportunity, indicated a stiff heart, and indicated values in the minors and indicated a minimum. The south hand is simply not that good.

In context of all of that the 5H bid is crazy, but north was going to drive to slam anyways.

Anyways, I would propose this auction:

1D 1H
2D 2S
2N 3H
3S 4C
4N 5D
6H

I really think north is the one who needs to be doing a lot after limiting his hand pretty well and being quite maximum for those limits. I even think in my auction if north had bid 4D over 4C south should definitely sign off.