BBO Discussion Forums: Percentage Line? - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Percentage Line?

#1 User is offline   kfay 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,208
  • Joined: 2007-July-01
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Michigan
  • Interests:Science, Sports

Posted 2008-October-06, 06:55

Scoring: IMP

1-(1)-2NT-(P)
3NT All Pass


LHO leads QJ and RHO overtakes and plays a 3rd. You win and lefty shows out.

Who do you play for the stiff honor?
Kevin Fay
0

#2 User is offline   655321 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,502
  • Joined: 2007-December-22

Posted 2008-October-06, 07:16

Assuming that the club x's are indeed x's and not the 8, you can't afford to test the spades, looking for more information about the distribution.
Therefore, all you have to go on is that hearts are 5-2, so naturally you play the 5 card heart suit to hold a singleton club honor, or clubs 2-2.

This is so obvious that I am guessing it didn't work on the actual hand. :rolleyes:
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
0

#3 User is offline   ASkolnick 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 385
  • Joined: 2007-November-20

Posted 2008-October-06, 07:52

I am playing the overcaller for the stiff club honor, but I am sure it is the other way since the question was posed.
0

#4 User is offline   pclayton 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,151
  • Joined: 2003-June-11
  • Location:Southern California

Posted 2008-October-06, 09:00

I can afford to test the spades. If I choose to play LHO (non-overcaller) for the club stiff, all I need to do is unblock the 9 under the K, finesse, cash the Ace and overtake with dummy's spot. This assume dummy's highest spot beats our lowest. If I choose to play RHO for the club stiff, A, 10, etc..

If spades are 6-2, RHO is 2=5=?=? and LHO is 6=2=?=? and I will play RHO for the length. If RHO follows to 3 spades, I'll play clubs 'normally'.
"Phil" on BBO
0

#5 User is offline   ceeb 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 243
  • Joined: 2007-June-14

Posted 2008-October-07, 07:59

If RHO makes non-vulnerable overcalls based on the (quite correct) criterion that it's fun to bid then obviously finesse through LHO.

However it may be argued that there is much more point to overcalling when short in spades. Some hands with short clubs are good for a delayed t.o. double, or better suited to continuing, should partner (meaning LHO) bid spades, having initially passed. I hate trying to read overcaller's mind, but perhaps better players can comment. Anyway, assuming you buy this idea ...

If RHO is known to have exactly a xx it is a tossup which way to play clubs assuming you mark RHO with the A.

If you can convince yourself that the overcaller has on expectation 2 or fewer spades, cash the K (and unblock). If LHO drops an honor, test the spades to gain a tiny edge. If and only if RHO has 3 or more spades, play the clubs to be 2-2.

Charles
0

#6 User is offline   MarkDean 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 595
  • Joined: 2008-April-30
  • Location:Pleasanton, CA, US

Posted 2008-October-07, 13:01

I do not take the 5-2 hearts to be as much of a clue as others do. If the opps had the exact same shapes, but LHO had RHO points, RHO would have passed over 1C, and LHO would have lead his long suit (likely 5 cards as well, unless 4243 or 4 clubs), and we would be tempted to play clubs the other way.

While it will probably just involve no new information, and a possible 3 IMP loss, I agree with testing spades.

What did LHO pitch on the third heart?
0

#7 User is offline   jdonn 

  • - - T98765432 AQT8
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 15,085
  • Joined: 2005-June-23
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Las Vegas, NV

Posted 2008-October-07, 13:17

I certainly test spades, and unless something happens there I certainly play ace of clubs first. Is this a trick question?
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
0

#8 User is offline   Lobowolf 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,030
  • Joined: 2008-August-08
  • Interests:Attorney, writer, entertainer.<br><br>Great close-up magicians we have known: Shoot Ogawa, Whit Haydn, Bill Malone, David Williamson, Dai Vernon, Michael Skinner, Jay Sankey, Brian Gillis, Eddie Fechter, Simon Lovell, Carl Andrews.

Posted 2008-October-07, 13:22

MarkDean, on Oct 7 2008, 02:01 PM, said:

I do not take the 5-2 hearts to be as much of a clue as others do. If the opps had the exact same shapes, but LHO had RHO points, RHO would have passed over 1C, and LHO would have lead his long suit (likely 5 cards as well, unless 4243 or 4 clubs), and we would be tempted to play clubs the other way.

While it will probably just involve no new information, and a possible 3 IMP loss, I agree with testing spades.

What did LHO pitch on the third heart?

Isn't the a priori "longest suit" expectation something like 4.5 cards in length, in which case the 5-2 break is still disproportionately long for RHO? Having said that, I'm wondering if the point of the problem isn't partly whether you'd disregard restricted choice implications (which would probably cause you to finesse into the heart length) in favor of picking up the 2-2 club splits AND being safe when LHO has the A.

If that's in play at all, my answer would be no; the opponents have enough of a paucity (if that's not an oxymoron) of high cards that I assume the double shot isn't particularly valuable. I expect to go down if I mess the clubs up, so I'm not going to buck any restricted choice implications.

That being the case, I'll go along with testing the spades and going along with Phil's proposal.

In the "Why was this question posed?" pool, I'll go with neither 3-1 split, but instead, QJ tight on my right, and A on my left.
1. LSAT tutor for rent.

Call me Desdinova...Eternal Light

C. It's the nexus of the crisis and the origin of storms.

IV: ace 333: pot should be game, idk

e: "Maybe God remembered how cute you were as a carrot."
0

#9 User is offline   MarkDean 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 595
  • Joined: 2008-April-30
  • Location:Pleasanton, CA, US

Posted 2008-October-07, 13:35

Lobowolf, on Oct 7 2008, 02:22 PM, said:

MarkDean, on Oct 7 2008, 02:01 PM, said:

I do not take the 5-2 hearts to be as much of a clue as others do.  If the opps had the exact same shapes, but LHO had RHO points, RHO would have passed over 1C, and LHO would have lead his long suit (likely 5 cards as well, unless 4243 or 4 clubs), and we would be tempted to play clubs the other way. 

While it will probably just involve no new information, and a possible 3 IMP loss, I agree with testing spades. 

What did LHO pitch on the third heart?

Isn't the a priori "longest suit" expectation something like 4.5 cards in length, in which case the 5-2 break is still disproportionately long for RHO? Having said that, I'm wondering if the point of the problem isn't partly whether you'd disregard restricted choice implications (which would probably cause you to finesse into the heart length) in favor of picking up the 2-2 club splits AND being safe when LHO has the A.

If that's in play at all, my answer would be no; the opponents have enough of a paucity (if that's not an oxymoron) of high cards that I assume the double shot isn't particularly valuable. I expect to go down if I mess the clubs up, so I'm not going to buck any restricted choice implications.

That being the case, I'll go along with testing the spades and going along with Phil's proposal.

In the "Why was this question posed?" pool, I'll go with neither 3-1 split, but instead, QJ tight on my right, and A on my left.

Their average longest suit depends on our hands. For example, if we had all 13 clubs, each opp would be 100% to have a 5+ card suit.
0

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users