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I don't think enough credit is being given to the chances that they either go down or have slam (in combination). They have totally guessed, why donate a number to see if they guessed right?
There is also too much credit being given to the chance 5♥ makes. Almost all the time that it does, partner will double back in.
Hang partner?
#21
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Posted 2008-September-15, 17:32
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#22
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Posted 2008-September-15, 21:08
skaeran, on Sep 15 2008, 12:51 PM, said:
Playing with myself, I'd bid 5♥. Good save, and might even make on a good day. I don't tend to overbid 3rd seat preempts - more often I'm stronger than a usual preempt, might have a 6-5. With some others I'm just happy they didn't double us already.
Isn't the modern tendency to double when it comes back around when one has made one of these stronger than usual preempts? I think too many people think that responder has the last chance. Maybe he should after a preempt, but that doesn't seem to be the modern approach.
#23
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Posted 2008-September-15, 21:48
My first reaction was easy pass, but I started giving partner some hands and they're strong favorites to be making.
Of course no action comes with a guarantee and the more creatively partner preempts in this position the less likely I would be to bid here.
Let's assume we're leading the ♥K. I don't claim this is best, but it's something to work with:
* HQJ8th and out -- they make 6♠, we're -500 in 5♥x.
* HA8th and out -- they make 5♠ or 6♠, we're -300 in 5♥x.
* HAQ7th and another card -- we're -300 and they're making anywhere from 9-11 tricks at spades.
Add another card to partner's hand and in the first two cases they're still making 4♠ and we're probably -100/-300. So when we're right we're gaining 4-8-13 IMPs and when we're wrong we're losing 9 IMPs (-300 and -100 from teammates).
I'll bid 5♥. I'm pushed to bid by having an ace -- it protects me against them making a slam, and provides more chances we can beat them if we can get the up one more level.
Of course no action comes with a guarantee and the more creatively partner preempts in this position the less likely I would be to bid here.
Let's assume we're leading the ♥K. I don't claim this is best, but it's something to work with:
* HQJ8th and out -- they make 6♠, we're -500 in 5♥x.
* HA8th and out -- they make 5♠ or 6♠, we're -300 in 5♥x.
* HAQ7th and another card -- we're -300 and they're making anywhere from 9-11 tricks at spades.
Add another card to partner's hand and in the first two cases they're still making 4♠ and we're probably -100/-300. So when we're right we're gaining 4-8-13 IMPs and when we're wrong we're losing 9 IMPs (-300 and -100 from teammates).
I'll bid 5♥. I'm pushed to bid by having an ace -- it protects me against them making a slam, and provides more chances we can beat them if we can get the up one more level.
"It is not enough to be a good player. You must also play well." -- Tarrasch
#24
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Posted 2008-September-15, 23:08
Quote
HQJ8th and out -- they make 6♠, we're -500 in 5♥x.
* HA8th and out -- they make 5♠ or 6♠, we're -300 in 5♥x.
* HAQ7th and another card -- we're -300 and they're making anywhere from 9-11 tricks at spades.
* HA8th and out -- they make 5♠ or 6♠, we're -300 in 5♥x.
* HAQ7th and another card -- we're -300 and they're making anywhere from 9-11 tricks at spades.
IMO partner is favorite to have only 7H. For me -500,-800 is just too likely.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#25
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Posted 2008-September-16, 04:01
Pass. I've seen my partner's 3rd in favourable pre-empts before.