[jdonn]

Mike, reasonably you would have to concede, 1552 is not only an unlikely hand for partner after a 3♣ overcall when opener is 3-4 in the black suits, but it's VERY unlikely! I would take a shot in the dark that 2551 is 5x more likely than 1552, and wouldn't even be surprised if 3550 is more likely than 1552.

Also, while I agree that han was too generous to say something like 20% of hands could drive to slam over 4♦, there certainly exist such hands. Something like AQx Kx Kxxxx ATx is darn close to guaranteeing a slam (and I don't think it need be quite that perfect).

The argument others are putting forth really seems compelling. Partner is left with the final decision over 5♣, bid slam or don't. So it seems obviously inferior to NOT split the hands approximately 50-50 between bidding 5♣ and 5♦. If you are bidding 5♣ on 70% of hands and 5♦ on 30% of hands (just between hands that bid one of those two things) then you are being quite inefficient.

[Cascade]

jdonn, on Sep 17 2008, 11:22 AM, said:

Mike, reasonably you would have to concede, 1552 is not only an unlikely hand for partner after a 3♣ overcall when opener is 3-4 in the black suits, but it's VERY unlikely! I would take a shot in the dark that 2551 is 5x more likely than 1552, and wouldn't even be surprised if 3550 is more likely than 1552.

Here are some simulation numbers:

0553 0.7%
1552 18.7%
2551 49.5%
3550 31.1%

The assumption was the balanced hand was 3=2=4=4 and an opponent had 6 or 7 clubs.

[jdonn]

Fair enough, I guess I was 1 out of 2 hehe. One more time with just 7 clubs, for comparison? Surely the longer is more likely when we have the AK and when we clearly have a lot of strength. Also I notice you didn't let partner be longer than 5-5.

I would suggest as a further bridge argument that partner is a lot more likely to pass 3NT with 1552 or 0553 than with short clubs, although I wouldn't bother trying to incorporate that into a sim.

[kenrexford]

I'd like to add to my original assessment, in a manner that may not be typical of me.

My original thought was, "5♦."

I now think, "5♦...duh!"

[benlessard]

Quote

And if he is 1=5=5=2, he is NEVER bidding over 5D, even with x AKJxx AKJxx xx, since he can see how they rate to beat him in clubs

Not bidding slam with this is completly dumb.

First of all opener can bid 4Nt as natural to show heavy wastage in black suits
'
2ndly you assume defense will always lead clubs. Its not because "you" always have controls in the opps suit when you bid slam that you can assume everybody is doing the same. On this hand 5D doesnt say you dont have the S controls and responder might gamble into slam, 5D just say that youre hand isnt suitable for slam. And it still need some balls to lead the unbid suit when partner sit over the Nt biddier.

3rdly with ♥Qx and ♦xxxx + S well stopped we will bid 4H and not 5D.

For me

xx
akxxx
akxxx
x

or

x
akxxx
akxxx
xx

are both 6D bids.

of course partner can have a terrible hand and 6 isnt there. But its more likely hes got a hand not strong enough to make a cue but that still make 6D.

With this auction

1Nt----(2S)------3H------(P)
3Nt---------------4D
???

a split

4H 15%
4S cue 10%
4Nt natural 20%
5C 20%
5D 20 %
slam 15%

is imo reasonnable.

So you cannot say that 5D is dead minimum and the worst hand possible and that 5C is a non garbage raise that doesnt show extras. You cannot bid 5C with all 4D 2H hands some of them (40% maybe) are just to weak to cue. I believe this hand and many other fall into this category.

Quote

imo is it really not sensible not to require above average hand strength for 5C

BINGO

[Lobowolf]

The critical point in the auction comes when opener, without a stopper in front of the club bidder, chooses whether to go down in 4NT or 6♦.

[benlessard]

Ive misread the auction ive thought opps overcalled 2S and not 3C. The way i play is that cue bidding in opps suit show the ace since its likely partner got a stiff.I was throwed off by the clubs cue-bid.

I must admit that its a different problem now.

If i would make a cue now its surely 4S and not 5C. Im not sure if the hand is strong enough for a cue but for me its way more attractive and less compromising to make a 4S cue over a 3C bid than to make a 5C cue over a 2S overcall.

Partner with

X
AKxxx
AKxxx
xx

Will bid 4Nt over 4S. And slam will be reached.

With

XX
AKxxx
AKxxx
x

he will bid 5C to say hes not sure and again slam will be reached.

Maybe im on still on acid for this hand but i still dont understand why people cue bid clubs instead of 4S ? Does they expect 4S to show the A ? Over a 2S overcall a 4S cue wasnt available but over 3C overcall 4S is at least an alternative.