[FrancesHinden]

Scoring: IMP

2♠ P 4♠ all pass

---

A pretty strong declarer went off on this deal.

LHO leads the jack of diamonds. RHO plays the queen on this, and switches to the 2 of clubs.

Plan the play.

[655321]

First thought is to play a spade to the ten, giving up if it loses and they get their club ruff, but otherwise making (play a heart next).

But something funny is happening in diamonds. Is the lead really a singleton - RHO has seven solid diamonds and did not bid. Perhaps the lead is a doubleton (still a bit odd, but maybe LHO preferred Jx to Jxxxx, or ♥A or a trump).

If the lead is a singleton, playing Ace and another spade will work. This caters for singleton or doubleton King offside, but it also works for Kxx onside, because of the (assumed) diamond split. The point being that when we get around to knocking out LHO's ace of hearts, even if dummy is out of trumps and the diamonds are ready to run, the defense cannot cash them because LHO has none left, and RHO has no entry. But this fails if LHO, having started with 2 diamonds, wins the ♠K and leads a 3rd trump.

If the lead is a doubleton, we need to extract LHO's second diamond by taking a diamond ruff before playing Ace and another spade. But this line can lose if RHO has doubleton King of spades.

I can't see anything like a sure trick line. Singleton lead seems more likely than a doubleton, but RHO will surely bid 5♦ sometimes with AKQxxxx...

I think I will play Ace and another spade, but I feel I am missing something.

[brianshark]

Haven't thought about this too deeply, but I'm going to win the ♣Q and play a small ♠ to the A and (unless the K drops) play a ♥ to the Q.

If RHO has ♠Kxx and a singleton ♣ and LHO has the ♥A, I don't see how I can make it.

I suppose LHO could have the ♣ singleton and ♠Kxx and RHO could have ♠- ♥Ax ♦AKQxxx Jxxxx or similar and I'm going down. But I'm hoping RHO would bid with a hand like that.

[Echognome]

Just a second. If we play A and a spade and spades are 3-1 (not stiff K), can't they play back a third trump? We haven't yet set up hearts for a discard, so if clubs aren't 3-3 we're in trouble (we did take the ♣Q didn't we?). So we should win the ♣Q and play the ♥Q.

[brianshark]

Oops, I thought we were in a 10 card fit... my analysis is kinda redundant.

[pclayton]

Echognome, on Aug 20 2008, 08:37 AM, said:

Just a second.  If we play A and a spade and spades are 3-1 (not stiff K), can't they play back a third trump?  We haven't yet set up hearts for a discard, so if clubs aren't 3-3 we're in trouble (we did take the ♣Q didn't we?).  So we should win the ♣Q and play the ♥Q.

Depends. If spades are 3-1, clubs 5-1 (what is that overtake and shift all about anyway?) and the ♥A is on our left, we aren't making anyway.

If the ♣ was a stiff, I strongly doubt the ♥A is with RHO.

So ♠A, ♠ has a lot going for it, if you judge clubs are 5-1. Diamonds appear to be 6-2, so this doesn't seem at all unlikely.

[jdonn]

Deleted (missed a card)

[crazy4hoop]

RHO switched to the same ♣2 that is in dummy?

[mikeh]

If clubs are 5-1, as seems probable (but not certain... rho had limited options and may have been playing a deep game, intended to make us think there is a ruff threatened when clubs are in fact 4-2 and LHO holds Kxx in trump) then we fail on all realistic lines when RHO has Kxx in trump, because he can hardly hold the heart Ace as well. We cannot then shut out a club ruff, and a spade loser and two red losers.

So, in that case, maybe the A and a trump is best... it works whenever trump are 2-2 and also when LHO holds Kxx and clubs are 3-3. But I don't think clubs are going to be 3-3. Of course, we are assuming best defence (altho it is not exactly tough defence)

So what about spade A and then a heart? This fails when rho is 2=4=6=1 (or 2=3=7=1) without the spade King, but works when he has Kx in spades along with his stiff club and also works on almost all 3-1 breaks where LHO has Kxx... even if rho has been giving us the gears in clubs.

Say rho is x xxxx AKQxxx xx. We play A and a trump: lho clears trump, and we can pitch only one of our 3 remaining red suit losers on the clubs.

But if we play A of spades and then hearts, we retain control absent a heart situation that seems highly improbable so far.

I don't think this is capable of mathematical analysis... how do we factor in rho's ability to switch to a low doubleton (or tripleton) in clubs? Or rho's propensity to pass on this auction with AKQxxxx in diamonds, missing the heart and spade honours (if diamonds are 1-7, then there is no defence if rho lacks an entry).

If I respected rho and especially if the club switch appeared to take some thought (which probably came at trick one, not trick two) I go with spade Ace and a heart. Against average or unknown opps, I go spade A and a spade.

Given the OP, and the assumption that her team was defending or that they were playing in their peer group, I play A of spades and a heart.

[Echognome]

I like Mike's variation. Seems to cater to the possibility I was worried about: Kxx on either side and clubs not splitting.

[FrancesHinden]

mikeh, on Aug 21 2008, 12:55 AM, said:

If I respected rho and especially if the club switch appeared to take some thought (which probably came at trick one, not trick two) I go with spade Ace and a heart. Against average or unknown opps, I go spade A and a spade.

Oppo are Forrester and Bakhshi, and the defence was in tempo for Bakhshi (i.e., slow, but all his defences are slow).

[mikeh]

FrancesHinden, on Aug 21 2008, 03:30 AM, said:

mikeh, on Aug 21 2008, 12:55 AM, said:

If I respected rho and especially if the club switch appeared to take some thought (which probably came at trick one, not trick two) I go with spade Ace and a heart. Against average or unknown opps, I go spade A and a spade.

Oppo are Forrester and Bakhshi, and the defence was in tempo for Bakhshi (i.e., slow, but all his defences are slow).

Then I go with the spade A and a heart.... what happened?

[FrancesHinden]

At both tables declarer won the club switch and immediately played a heart. LHO won and gave RHO a club ruff, who then forced dummy with a diamond establishing a spade loser.

LHO is 3=4=1=5
RHO did indeed pass over 4S with x xxxx AKQxxxx x

Cashing the SA first, or playing a spade to the 10, makes.

Declarer at my table (I was defending) was the sponsor, I was a little disappointed when the board was flat in one off. (The auction was slightly different at our table as I got to bid my diamonds in a multi auction.)