[Apollo81]

Both Vul, IMPs

♠x
♥Kxxxx
♦Kxxxx
♣xx

(p)-p-(1♣)-p
(p)-?

[helene_t]

Pass wtp. Before opps find their spade fit.

[ArtK78]

Pass before the opponents find their spade game.

Partner has already had two chances to bid at the lowest levels possible. I am not going to play him for an opening or near opening hand.

[Apollo81]

ArtK78, on Jul 2 2008, 10:47 AM, said:

Partner has already had two chances to bid at the lowest levels possible.

No, only one chance.

[ArtK78]

Apollo81, on Jul 2 2008, 09:49 AM, said:

ArtK78, on Jul 2 2008, 10:47 AM, said:

Partner has already had two chances to bid at the lowest levels possible.

No, only one chance.

Yes. Sorry about that.

Still, if he couldn't bid over 1♣, what are the chances that this is your hand?

[pclayton]

I will make a disciplined pass.

[kfay]

Looks like opener has something close to 20 real on this hand. I'm PASSING!

Or maybe partner has something that includes 4 good clubs. Anyway it's IMPs so what am I worried about?

[TimG]

Given how light people are overcalling, this seems like an ultra easy pass.

[pigpenz]

helping is to know what partners tendency for overcalling is. Would he not overcall on a good 4 Card major? Whats the trap hand? would he not overcall on akxx♥ and clubs. There was just a hand posted recently where people would not double over 1♠ on 4441 hand and 15 hcp a simulations showed you could make 4♥ about 35% time.

if were wrong here we lose 10imps by balancing if opps have 4♠ game. Passing 1♣ may be our last shot at going plus. So Pass is clearly best shot at winning and keeping losses to a minimum.

all the simulations I ran (2000) showed that 4♠ can make about 30% time for opps and 4♥ by us only 11%.

so if we decide to balance then maybe this now becomes a lead problem against 4♠

[nige1]

Apollo81, on Jul 2 2008, 09:34 AM, said:

Both Vul, IMPs ♠ x ♥ Kxxxx ♦ Kxxxx ♣ xx
(p)-p-(1♣)-p
(p)-?

IMO _P = 10, 2N = 3, 1♥ = 2, _X = 1.
The main case for a balancing is that opponents may then reach game or slam in ♠ but fall foul of bad breaks.

[Apollo81]

I passed. Lose 5 -- the other table balanced and opps got to 3♠-1

[kenrexford]

Apollo81, on Jul 3 2008, 11:08 AM, said:

I passed. Lose 5 -- the other table balanced and opps got to 3♠-1

Well, hopefully the match was long enough that the opponents had plenty of time to make other ignorant decisions, allowing you to win?

[Apollo81]

kenrexford, on Jul 3 2008, 12:11 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Jul 3 2008, 11:08 AM, said:

I passed.  Lose 5 -- the other table balanced and opps got to 3♠-1

Well, hopefully the match was long enough that the opponents had plenty of time to make other ignorant decisions, allowing you to win?

Was from a semifinal match in a regional bkt 1 ko; opps were nearly perfect over 24 boards. In the 1st half we lost on two boards (this and a lose 6) and gained on none.

[dburn]

Would be inclined to bid 1♥ - after all, if the opponents bid game in spades they don't have to make it, since partner will have clubs and spades over the opening bidder (spades are almost certainly 4-4-4-1 round the table). But as a man who once protected against a Precision 1♦ opening passed around, only to find that his opponents could make 7♣, my view may not be worth very much.

[Apollo81]

dburn, on Jul 3 2008, 12:32 PM, said:

as a man who once protected against a Precision 1♦ opening passed around, only to find that his opponents could make 7♣, my view may not be worth very much.

lol!

[pigpenz]

again its all about what partner has a tendency to overcall and double on wether one should balance....when we balance we are sometimes trying to protect partner just like when we reopen with a double.

If partner will overcall on a good 4 card major like akxx or aqjx or kqjx then we dont have to worry about protecting partner with a balance. Yet give him xx in one major and good 4 card major in the other with clubs then balancing is right. IF we are playing against good opps in the finals/semis of a KO then we usually assume they know what they are doing. To me its all about the risk vs gain with the imp table. If you worried about them making game then -5 is better than -10....its either your lucky day or not

[dburn]

Jlall, on Jul 3 2008, 11:55 AM, said:

dburn, on Jul 3 2008, 11:32 AM, said:

Would be inclined to bid 1♥ - after all, if the opponents bid game in spades they don't have to make it, since partner will have clubs and spades over the opening bidder (spades are almost certainly 4-4-4-1 round the table). But as a man who once protected against a Precision 1♦ opening passed around, only to find that his opponents could make 7♣, my view may not be worth very much.

Why are spades almost certainly 4441 around the table? You are assuming responder would respond with 5+ spades always? Against most opponents I don't think that's true.

I don't assume that anyone would do anything "always", which is why I said that spades are "almost certainly" 4-4-4-1 round the table. If this problem had occurred in an English context, where many people open 1♣ with 5-5 in the black suits, I would have modified "almost certainly" to "fairly likely to be" (and I might have passed).

My experience is (and other people's mileage may well vary) that many part-score and even game swings are lost because players are afraid to balance for fear that the opponents might find a better fit. That could well be the case here of course, but the questions are: how likely are they to find that fit, and how likely are they to do well in it? It seems to me that most of the time when I bid 1♥, opener will pass, partner (with his 4=1=4=4 shape) will bid 1NT, I will bid 2♦ and everyone will pass. We will score 110 in 2♦ as against -70 or -90 defending 1♣ (maybe we could have beaten it, but I am an old man with better things to do in my few remaining days than sweat out the best defence to 1♣ after partner has made his usual clueless opening lead).

Some of the rest of the time, partner's massive penalty double of 1♣ will produce a game in hearts or diamonds or notrump facing my hand. Some of the rest of the rest of the time, my opponents will bid to seven spades and make it. But so what? I've been there before.