[gwnn]

p-p-4♠ to you

Scoring: IMP

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[lexlogan]

I voted for pass, but on reflection, partner could have a stiff spade and both red Kings, while the opps have 8 spade and 2 club tricks, so a double game swing is plausible. I should probably take out insurance at 5H.

[TylerE]

Mark me for a pass. Might be getting stolen from, but I think the odds are greater that both contracts are going down.

[P_Marlowe]

5H.

I dont think the hand is strong enough to make
a move towards slam, especially given that
partner is a passed hand.
Since I am pretty certain I wont pass at the table,
and hence I wont claim it here.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[hotShot]

The decision is close, but partner has passed in 2nd seat, so I will pass.
If this were a 2nd seat decision I would prefer 5♥.

[whereagles]

seems good for a siumulation. without one, I guess I'd pass.

[Echognome]

5♥. Too many ways to win. However, if it does go double on my left, I expect to be going for quite a number. I've done so before and will do so again.

[han]

Uncomfortable but I think 5H is right. Not easy.

[andy_h]

Yeah, very uncomfortable indeed. ♠Qx hmm. I think that sways me to the pass side.

Quote

I'd pass. There is a good chance RHO will X us if we bid/

Just curious, how do people normally play these X's by the preemptor? At these favourable colours, is it usually best to play X by the preemptor as a I want to bid more-have a few defensive values/suggesting sac or would the exception be a 3rd seat preemption which can be a to-make hand and crackin the opponents for crossing the line?

[TylerE]

The thing is, a 3rd seat 4♠ bid can be quite strong. When I make that bid, I expect to make if I catch a dummy with 2 card support and a random 6 count or so.

[jdonn]

I pass. Not enough experience in this situation to be at all confident what is right (does anyone have enough?)

[awm]

Much as I like to bid... I pass here.

If we were NV or partner were not a passed hand, I would bid. But here it seems all too likely that neither game makes, and that 5♥X will go for 200 or 500 (not exactly cheap insurance against 4♠).

[skjaeran]

I'm a passer here.

I don't like ♠Qx. 4♠ could be quite strong here. I'd not be surprised at all if RHO could double 5♥, and that might be a bloody affair.

[whereagles]

jdonn, on May 27 2008, 04:37 PM, said:

I pass. Not enough experience in this situation to be at all confident what is right (does anyone have enough?)

Well, I can simulate some experience.

Assumptions:
- preemptor has 7+ spades, headed by at least QJ or K. If 7+ spades, then 7-15 hcp. If 8+ spaces, then 3-15 hcp.
- pard and LHO have at most 11 hcp and no weak 2 in diams or weak 3 in the minors.
- below, "West doubles" means he has ♥K and an ace (if spade ace, no longer than Ax)

Outcome after 18998 hands:
Hcp pard: 7.66191 hcp
Hearts pard: 2.42289 hearts
Pard has a king and an ace: 22.9761%
West doubles: 22.0076%

This is the "experience". Now you rate pass and 5♥

[Rossoneri]

What about hands where 4S makes/going down?

Would be interesting to see how many % of hands has 4S and 5H both making or 4S makes and 5H is a good sac.

[gwnn]

I tried 5♥, but wasn't very proud of it. LHO took the push, partner applied the x card for +300. We would have made 5H. Not quite sure what the other hands were any more.

[Vilgan]

A confident 5♥ for me.

If I debate for a second or two, maybe LHO will feel more confident about an X (when it is right for him to do so).

Could be wrong, and on a bad day I will go for 1100. However, 5♥ is the call I would make at the table.