[FrancesHinden]

Toss my cards up in the air and pick one at random?

Probably a heart. But with no confidence.

p.s. not a spade.

[mikeh]

A spade seems out.

A club may be 'neutral', but declarer has no worries about clubs.

That leaves me with a red suit. It isn't a complete guess.

For example, with ♦K and an Ace, he'd double for a diamond lead but with ♥K and an Ace, he'd have to pass.

So the (very limited) info I have suggests leading a heart.

I'd rate the leads as ♥100 ♣90 ♦ 85 ♠ 70


Very very close

[whereagles]

heart, I guess.

[pclayton]

This auction smells. Might I bid this way with Qxxx xx Ax AKQxx - although all of us here would 2♣ this. The problem is I think pard would double with the ♠AK expecting me to work it out.

I'll lead a heart I guess but I don't like it much.

[mikeh]

Jlall, on May 19 2008, 12:57 PM, said:

mikeh, on May 19 2008, 12:40 PM, said:

A spade seems out.

A club may be 'neutral', but declarer has no worries about clubs.

That leaves me with a red suit. It isn't a complete guess.

For example, with ♦K and an Ace, he'd double for a diamond lead but with ♥K and an Ace, he'd have to pass.

So the (very limited) info I have suggests leading a heart.

I'd rate the leads as ♥100 ♣90  ♦ 85 ♠ 70


Very very close

Mike, I love your reasoning, so I don't really understand why you then say it's very close etc etc. You gave great reasons for a heart lead and no reasons for any other lead. I think that you are spot on and that makes anything but a heart lead a big error.

I would lead a heart 100% of the time, for the reasons given. But my suspicion is that if we dealt out hands roughly consistent with this auction (whatever that might be.... this 6N is weird), there would be a majority of hands on which it didn't matter (except for the overtrick) and some hands on which any one or two of the suits might work... I'd expect the heart lead to be the most effective of a probably, on the whole, ineffectual lot... by about the scoring I posited.

[FrancesHinden]

I think I'm always leading a red suit at imps although a club is possible at matchpoints, as it's actually the most passive lead, just taking winning finesses for declarer.

I picked a heart for much the same reasons as mike (though much less well articulated); the 'toss your cards in the air comment reflects that any suit might be right - it might be right to go passive, it might be right to be aggressive, and we don't even know which suits are passive and which aggressive.

Depending a bit on the opponents, there's a very very mild inference towards leading a diamond. If you think about on what hands you bid 6NT on this auction they are much more likely to have a high heart honour than a high diamond honour. With Kxx or Ax or similar in diamonds, and poor hearts, scientific bidders might investigate to see if a diamond slam is a better spot and/or if a diamond grand is playable. So I think if you look at oppo's hands for this auction 100 times, you are picking up a heart honour in partner's hand more often than a diamond honour. But I agree a diamond won't beat it out of hand (no double) while a heart might just simplify the defence.

Last time I had effectively this auction a spade lead (equivalent) would have beaten it.

[kenrexford]

Heart seems right.

If I had to guess what one lead sets the contract, if there is one lead, I'd guess a spade, though.

[whereagles]

ok, we seem to agree a heart looks ok. Since this is a problem, how did it gave away the contract then?