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We have two conflicting pieces of information. Our opponent with long spades is likely short in ♥ but he is also more likely to hold the queen due to having taken a bid.
I agree with Mike though. I thought you were asking for the correct line of play, not the psychological line of play. I thought we all agreed in the end that ♣ pitch was correct.
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#21
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Posted 2008-May-16, 13:18
#22
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Posted 2008-May-16, 14:26
Personally I think it's impossible that spades are 6-1. Who is ducking AK when this is the case? Couldn't we have Qx?
Kevin Fay
#23
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Posted 2008-May-16, 14:52
kfay, on May 16 2008, 03:26 PM, said:
Personally I think it's impossible that spades are 6-1. Who is ducking AK when this is the case? Couldn't we have Qx?
I think you misread the problem: LHO showed spades, we showed a stopper (so likely don't hold Qx) and LHO made a perfectly normal small spade lead, catering to his partner holding xx and an early entry.
While I do think that the chance of 6-1 spades is non-trivial, and thus another strike against what I see as the percentage line (cross to the club Ace and hook the heart), I do think that the odds are that spades are 5=2, because many opps with AKJxxx would either have bid at the 2-level immediately or, less commonly, bid 2♠ over 1N, given the vulnerability.
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#24 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-May-16, 23:48
Wow, great spot gnasher (cashing 3 clubs first then playing a spade). I think that line is far and away the best, but I don't think I would have found it.
I really think some posters are overestimating the chances that spades are 6-1. I don't even think the bidding is the biggest clue. Imagine you are LHO with AKJ7xx + some other stuff of spades(no 2S overcall), are you really firing out the S7? It caters to...well...nothing really. I guess if partner has a doubleton spade, RHO has 4 spades, and partner has an entry it could gain. That gives LHO a stiff spade for this bidding (3N?), and gives partner an entry when he has few HCP, and then gives the perfect split in spades for the lead. I think it's just way more likely that you'd lead a high spade in case of Qx/in case you can shift and not give up trick 9/in case you need to bang out 3 rounds of spades so that you don't end up getting thrown in with a spade later.
I would have bet a lot on 5-2 spades, and then you are in GREAT shape if RHO has 3+ clubs which is very likely. By cashing the top clubs first you eliminate the endgame guesses you will face because you know the club situation immediately. Great line imo.
I really think some posters are overestimating the chances that spades are 6-1. I don't even think the bidding is the biggest clue. Imagine you are LHO with AKJ7xx + some other stuff of spades(no 2S overcall), are you really firing out the S7? It caters to...well...nothing really. I guess if partner has a doubleton spade, RHO has 4 spades, and partner has an entry it could gain. That gives LHO a stiff spade for this bidding (3N?), and gives partner an entry when he has few HCP, and then gives the perfect split in spades for the lead. I think it's just way more likely that you'd lead a high spade in case of Qx/in case you can shift and not give up trick 9/in case you need to bang out 3 rounds of spades so that you don't end up getting thrown in with a spade later.
I would have bet a lot on 5-2 spades, and then you are in GREAT shape if RHO has 3+ clubs which is very likely. By cashing the top clubs first you eliminate the endgame guesses you will face because you know the club situation immediately. Great line imo.