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Hand of the year so far for me

#1 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 15:19

Scoring: IMP

(1) Pass (1) 1
(2) Pass (5) 6
(Pass) 6 (Dbl) ?


Do you agree with the bidding so far? If not what would you have done differently?

Do you redouble?

The hand is from club teams last night.
Wayne Burrows

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Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#2 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 15:25

1) Yes. You have a 7-6 and were able to show your two suits. Sounds like a good idea to me.

2) No. I am not even sure we will make. Partner might have nothing for us. Lefty may have a trump trick and the club ace. Or opponents may have just made a mistake and I don't see the need to tell them that. It's not like I have any defense to 7 of a red suit, so why tell them they've made a mistake if they have.
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#3 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 15:27

Cascade, on May 13 2008, 04:19 PM, said:

Do you redouble?

No. I have no idea what I'd do over 7. That's a good enough reason to not XX for me.
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#4 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 15:29

I certainly don't redouble. Why can't this be down two? These aren't solid suits. I like the bidding up to this point.
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#5 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 15:43

I suspect that most people would bid the hand this way, and for good reason.

There is something to be said for never bidding the club suit. You probably want to play in spades in all events. By bidding the club suit, you are giving the opponents a better picture of your hand, which they may use to their advantage in deciding whether to bid on or, if they do declare the hand, in the play of the hand. If your spades were AKQJxxx, I would say bid spades only and ignore the club suit. It may still be right to bid spades only, but it is not clear.

Suppose you just bid 6 and got doubled. It is not impossible that you would get a A lead. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No (of course, it is not clear that a A lead will be good for you if it leads to a ruff for them).

No, I do not redouble. I am making between 10 and 12 tricks. There are two good things that can happen if I redouble. In those cases where I am making 10 or 11 tricks, it is possible that they will run and go down (don't count on them running). In those cases where I am making 12 tricks, they can sit and I chalk up a huge number. But, most often, they will do what is right for them (opponents have this nasty habit of looking out for their own self interest). I have no clue what they can make, but I am reasonably sure that we belong in 6.
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 15:50

Bidding is fine. If you don't redouble, that is B)
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#7 User is offline   Halo 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 15:59

I'd bid 6S on the first round and not redouble.
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#8 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 17:16

Halo, on May 13 2008, 04:59 PM, said:

I'd bid 6S on the first round and not redouble.

Then you find partner with void xxxx xxxx AJxxx B) And with him on lead, you find you can't beat 7 and you are cold for 7 B)

I like the auction and I agree that we don't redouble... for all the reasons others have given
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#9 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 18:22

I like the auction, are king and I don't expect to many 7 sacs Red vs White when I hold an ace.

All PD did was take a preference and he may be broke. I don't redouble as I have no extra reason, after the double to think that I can make this. I probably can, but also considering the bidding, the opps have made a mistake and for all I know I get 1 trick at best vs 7X if one opp runs.
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#10 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 18:41

I think there are a number of things that suggest redouble might be reasonable.

1. The opponents are unlikely to bid 7 especially at these colours. LHO bid 1 then rebid 2. RHO simply jumped to game and then hit 6. There is no hint in this auction that anyone was considering slam and one opponent has expressed an opinion that 6 is failing. Why would they consider a Grand when undertricks are likely to cost them 200 and then 300 a time and maybe 6 is going down.

2. The odds favour a redouble if you think this is close between making and down one. Down one redoubled only costs 100 (we turn 100 into 200) but making redoubled is worth an extra 410 (1210 becomes 1620).
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

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Posted 2008-May-13, 18:49

Agree with most posters - auction is fine, and I don't redouble.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#12 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2008-May-13, 19:32

No xx. Like the auction.
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#13 User is offline   Halo 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 03:23

mikeh, on May 13 2008, 06:16 PM, said:

Halo, on May 13 2008, 04:59 PM, said:

I'd bid 6S on the first round and not redouble.

Then you find partner with void xxxx xxxx AJxxx :) And with him on lead, you find you can't beat 7 and you are cold for 7 B)

I like the auction and I agree that we don't redouble... for all the reasons others have given

Quite true, though I don't see how I get to know that clubs is better than spades.

if opps have a making save in 7D over 7C, what do I do about it?
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#14 User is offline   effervesce 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 05:30

Hmmm.... what's wrong with an immediate 5NT bid? 1 loser hand, unbid suits... what else could a overcall of 5NT mean. Granted, KQJxxx of clubs would be preferable but you can't have everything.
Ming

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#15 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 05:51

I like the biddign so far.

Alternatively you could had passed 1, and then if nobody bids spades you know almost certainly that spades break and you can bid 6 there.


Not redouble by any means, I don't dream of overtrick.
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#16 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 06:49

Cascade, on May 13 2008, 07:41 PM, said:

I think there are a number of things that suggest redouble might be reasonable.

1. The opponents are unlikely to bid 7 especially at these colours. LHO bid 1 then rebid 2. RHO simply jumped to game and then hit 6. There is no hint in this auction that anyone was considering slam and one opponent has expressed an opinion that 6 is failing. Why would they consider a Grand when undertricks are likely to cost them 200 and then 300 a time and maybe 6 is going down.

2. The odds favour a redouble if you think this is close between making and down one. Down one redoubled only costs 100 (we turn 100 into 200) but making redoubled is worth an extra 410 (1210 becomes 1620).

Nevertheless they have the chance to run. And, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if my hand is worth one trick. This looks like it could be a very profitiable sac for them even at IMPs.

The question for me is how many people would be in 6XX. Am I losing to them? With these hands, who knows? So I'll (hopefully) take my money and run right here. I've been on a team twice where my partners redoubled their slam contract and both times it worked out poorly (one sac, the other was wrong).
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#17 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 07:20

Normal auction, PASSSSSS!
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#18 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 07:51

Cascade, on May 13 2008, 07:41 PM, said:

I think there are a number of things that suggest redouble might be reasonable.

1.  The opponents are unlikely to bid 7 especially at these colours.  LHO bid 1 then rebid 2.  RHO simply jumped to game and then hit 6.  There is no hint in this auction that anyone was considering slam and one opponent has expressed an opinion that 6 is failing.  Why would they consider a Grand when undertricks are likely to cost them 200 and then 300 a time and maybe 6 is going down.

This is obviously a freak hand.

Suppose LHO has something like

Jxx
Qxx
AKQxxxx
---

Would you consider slam with that hand?
After the XX, wouldn't you seriously consider 7? You need partner to have the AK of hearts and a spade void, which seems reasonable on the auction.

Maybe you'd pull to 7 even if it wasn't redoubled, but I certainly know people who wouldn't. After all, partner might have a spade singleton, and 6 looks solidly down until the XX.
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#19 User is offline   cjames 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 08:36

I agree with ArtK78's reasoning, and also his idea of never bidding the suit in a slightly different situation as he mentioned.
Squeeze me
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#20 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-May-14, 09:08

I'll toss out a little love for the blue card, even though I would also pass. Don't gild the lily.

Redoubled slams have pretty good IMP odds. Our +1210 which was winning 11 now becomes +1620 which wins 15. If the other table isn't doubling the slam, we were winning 6 for 230 and now we get 12.

against down 1 or 2 (100 versus 200 is 3 IMPs, 300 versus 600 is 7, but its nominal if the other table is stopping in game (480 + 100 = 11, 480 + 200 = 12 and 450 + 300 = 12 and 450 + 600 = 14).

I have no idea if 7 is profitable, but they are vulnerable and I am skeptical they would bid 7 after doubling 6.
"Phil" on BBO
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