[TimG]

hrothgar, on May 9 2008, 07:04 AM, said:

We're white, they're red

Anyone care to run a simulation and caculate the percentage chance that partner has two out of the three key cards (King of Diamonds, Ace of Hearts, Jack of Hearts)

I read the vulnerability to be: "they're white, we're red".

For the simulation to be useful, you'd also have to factor in suit lengths, wouldn't you? ♥xxxx ♦x is more useful than ♥Jx ♦xx, isn't it?

Playing with Richard, I would open 1♥ (canape) and introduce diamonds next round.

Interesting that a couple of people have suggested 6♦, but in a recent thread where we were faced with a 6♣ opening, no one mentioned the possibility of a 5-8 hand.

[hrothgar]

TimG, on May 9 2008, 03:38 PM, said:

Interesting that a couple of people have suggested 6♦, but in a recent thread where we were faced with a 6♣ opening, no one mentioned the possibility of a 5-8 hand.

Yes and no...

Justin did mention that he would pass a 6♣ opening opposite me and I was one of the folks who gave consideration to a 6♦ opening.

[andy_h]

1D, 2nd choice 6D. Would not consider 2C

[Apollo81]

TimG, on May 9 2008, 08:38 AM, said:

Interesting that a couple of people have suggested 6♦, but in a recent thread where we were faced with a 6♣ opening, no one mentioned the possibility of a 5-8 hand.

What thread was that? I must have missed that one.

[neilkaz]

Wow...lots of great comments and diverging opinions and styles here ! Please keep it up and in a day or so I'll tell you what happened at the table and also in the other room.

And, yes, my hand is 2nd seat vul vs not.

..neilkaz ..very pleased with the response level so far !

[TimG]

Apollo81, on May 9 2008, 08:47 AM, said:

TimG, on May 9 2008, 08:38 AM, said:

Interesting that a couple of people have suggested 6♦, but in a recent thread where we were faced with a 6♣ opening, no one mentioned the possibility of a 5-8 hand.

What thread was that? I must have missed that one.

This one.

Notice that if you switch opener's minors on the first hand from that thread, this hand could be opposite.

[inquiry]

If partner is playing MisIry with me, I would open 2NT , which is either a club preempt, or strong two suiter that includes hearts (thus ♥+♠, or ♥+♦).

Not allowed to play MisIry and with RHO already passing, I would open 1♦, Over 4♠ by the oppoenent, or similiar, I plan to bid 4NT or similiar and pull clubs back to diamonds. Life is easier with a MisIry opening bid.

[TimG]

hrothgar, on May 9 2008, 07:45 AM, said:

TimG, on May 9 2008, 03:38 PM, said:

Interesting that a couple of people have suggested 6♦, but in a recent thread where we were faced with a 6♣ opening, no one mentioned the possibility of a 5-8 hand.

Yes and no...

Justin did mention that he would pass a 6♣ opening opposite me and I was one of the folks who gave consideration to a 6♦ opening.

I didn't understand Justin's comment to be reference to a 58 hand. I thought he was referring to your game theory influenced tendency to make "either or" preempts (let the opponents guess whether or not I intend to make).

I suggested a 49 hand in the other thread, which I suppose is pretty close to 58.

[kfay]

1♦

I held a 5-8 hand once. Opening at the 1-level got me to the right place doubled... but then I F'ed up the play.

Deja vu?

[ArtK78]

I open 1♦. I don't know if we are going to get into a situation where input from partner is relevant, but at least I want him to know that I have some real cards, not just strong distribution, when I start bidding at the 12 level.

[Fluffy]

Rob F, on May 9 2008, 04:52 AM, said:

After a likely auction 2♣-2♦-4♦ setting trump......

Come on, I admit it is remotelly possible, but likelly? you've got 2 voids mate, you don't expect someone to have a good suit?

[pclayton]

1♦. I'm deluding myself that I can bid a good 7 or stay out of a bad 6.

Frankly, playing pard for one specific card and shutting out a sac via 6♦ is a reasonable approach. I just cant bring myself to do it.

[neilkaz]

Thx for the great replies, everyone. After some thought I decided that a great 8 carder was trumps and that I should preempt this freak having only 12 HCP. I felt that PD would agree that a 5♦ opening in first seat Red vs White is basically bidding to make, with a desire to shut out the opps due to freakish distribution. Thus I'd expect he'd raise on some hands where 6 is cold.

Well PD held ♠QJx ♥ J987xx ♦void ♣ AKJx and slam was cold, but in ♥ which should come as no surprise.

5♦ was passed out as suspected and I score up my 600.

In the closed room the auction was different and cost the opps the match. They opened 1♦ followed by 3♠ from nv LHO and 4♥ from PD, then a routine 4♠ raise from RHO. Now the player in my seat jumped to 7♥X -1 off the ace of trumps. Perhaps he could've bid 5NT but most now play that as choice of slam, perhaps 5♠ as exclusion and then bid the grand only if PD has both aces.

Anyhow, based up consideration that ♥ could easily be playable and 5♦ could even have me missing slams. I feel that I should've opened 1♦, noting that my likely 11 trick hand can rebid later at a very high level if the opps, as seems nearly certain, get high in a Black suit. However, based on the expected preemption, I am not terribly likely to be able to find out everything I need for slam or grand after 1♦.

.. neilkaz ..