Posted 2008-May-07, 04:10
I win ♥K and run ♠Q.
If ♦A is onside, I'm cold even if I lose two trump tricks. If RHO has ♦A, ♠Kx and five hearts, I'm down whatever I do.
Of the remaining possibilities, I'd like to be able to cope with:
- hearts 5=1
- hearts 1=5
- spades 1=4
Dealing with East's ♠Kxxx is awkward. Suppose that I play ace and another spade, winning the queen as West shows out. If I now play a heart to dummy and another spade, he will win and return a third heart, cutting me off from the heart winner, not to mention the potential diamond winner. I could try to avoid that by leading a low spade from dummy without cashing the ace, but this would lose to lots of 5-1 heart breaks.
Regarding avoiding a heart ruff:
- Running ♠Q loses when RHO has ♠Kxx and five hearts.
- Ace and another spade loses when RHO has ♠xxx and a singleton heart, or ♠xx and five hearts.
- Leading a diamond to the king, followed by ace and another spade loses when RHO has ♠Kxx and five hearts, or ♠xxx and a singleton heart.
If LHO had xx x in the majors, we might have heard from him over 1S, so running ♠Q seems best.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
1♠ P 2♦ P
2♠ P 4♠ all pass