Posted 2004-March-09, 09:35
Richard, partner's Ten is more likely a singleton than shouting for a ♠. Why? With JT3, partner would play the J, with T93, it depends upon your style, what does he play. If he always plays the 9 from that combination, then the Ten would have to be a singleton. IF he randomly plays teh T or the 9, then it is 50% chance it is a singleton. This would mean declearer may have opened 1D with 5-5 or 4♦-5♣.
So I will consider should I lead another ♣ next. If partner had a singleton club, declearer may have made a mistake ducking, as we can get two ♣ ruffs. But if the opponents are playing in a 4-1 or 5-1 ♦ fit instead of 5-4 ♣ fit, we should do alright at matchpoints anyway. So I will take the Ten as from three T93, and just meant as discouraging, without any special suit preference implication.
Next is to turn to the queston should the opponents be in ♥'s? I am playing partner for 3♣ and likely 3 or 4 ♦ since no balance. Maybe his hand is 4-2-4-3 or 3-3-4-3, or 4-4-2-3. Why? If partner had five or six spades, surely he would have balanced. and if he had singleton diamnd he would have as well.
If partner has four ♥ declearer has a singleton, and if partner has 3 ♥, whatever declearer's has two. And if partner has 2♥? Well, once again we are assured a fair board as they should be in ♥s.
I exclude a ♠ as a lead, since it might be into the ♠AQx, giving declearer three spade tricks (two and a ruff) instead of the one he has legitmately.
So that leaves a ♦ and a ♥ lead. Both carry risk. If I lead a ♦, my partner might cover the JACK with Qxxx or Kxxx. I wish I had a higher low ♦ than the five to lead. If I lead the ♥K, declearer might have singleton ACE with ♦AKQx(x) and be able to take advantage of ♥Q using the ♦J as an entry.
If I was going to lead a ♦ I would lead the five, and hope partner can work out looking at his spots, that this is a "high one" (that is, he might be able to figure out that the 234 is missing and unlikely in declarer's hand). However, I think I am going to lead a low heart. If declearer has AJ, Ax, Axx. or AJx, they are in the wrong contract anyway. And anytime he is missing the jack, he might misguess and insert the ten from dummy. This seems the best shot, as there is a good chance my partner has four hearts anyway. I will probably have to lead a ♦ the next time I am in.... and note.. my choice is NOT in the list of options, so I didn't vote.
ben
--Ben--