[655321]

Start with ♠KQ.
If LHO shows out, start diamonds with the Ace, then probably guess to play the King next - playing RHO for Jxxxx xx Qx Qxxx. If LHO follows to both spades, I will play RHO for the ♦Q.

[gwnn]

what did RHO bid 1♠ on? He's likely to respond on nothing and a 5 card suit, but probably not nothing and a bad 4 card suit, especially given his doubleton heart. LHO certainly has the ace of clubs given his lead and trick 2 play. So, I test spades and if LHO has 2 spades I'll play RHO for the Q of diamonds and if LHO has 1 or 0 spades I'll probably go for the percentage play in void, the drop. Maybe this is wrong but it sounds right.

[mikeh]

I'll take my 9 tricks, and let them have the rest

Ok, which 9?

LHO has the club Ace.. not only because he opened and bid again but because he was so eager to clear the heart suit.

That leaves very few hcp for rho. Even giving him the club Q and the spade J only gets him to a poor 3 count, and he had no reason to panic based on short hearts... he had 2 of them.

All of this suggests playing RHO for the diamond queen.

However, it cannot hurt to cash the spade KQ 1st.

If LHO shows out on the 1st spade, I will cash the diamond Ace and then hook LHO for the Queen, on the basis that with 0=6=2=5 he would at least some of the time bid 2♣.. so I will play him to be 0=6=3=4.

If he shows out on the second spade, I will play him to be 1=6=2=4 rather than 1=6=3=3, because of the argument about rho's lack of hcp for his spade response.... please note that I do not suggest that this argument is overwhelming If I knew that rho would happily respond to 1♥ on a near yarborough, I might be persuaded to hook lho, playing for the 1=6=3=3.

If lho shows in to both spades, then I definitely hook LHO for the diamond queen.

[AlternaG]

mikeh, on Mar 10 2008, 04:59 PM, said:

If lho shows in to both spades, then I definitely hook LHO for the diamond queen.

Shouldn't RHO be more likely to have a 'real' bid (say 5 points) if he only has Jxxx ♠? Also, just on the count of the hand alone, we expect there to be more of either minor in RHO's hand. I probably play KQ♠, and if LHO shows up with 2 spades, diamond to the king and finesse back. [Also note that this picks up the 4-0 diamond break if RHO has Q9xx, but you can't get to the board to cash your 5th diamond. ::sigh::]

Am I way off here?

[Apollo81]

I think RHO has either:

1. A 5-count that was planning to pass whatever opener rebids, e.g. 4234

or

2. A distributional hand with 5+ spades, e.g. 5215, that is worried about missing a game and doesn't mind taking a preference back to 2♥ since it has a doubleton, some ruffing value and will make 4♠ sometimes.

(2) is probably more likely.

So I will cash ♠KQ and finesse diamonds based on whether opener followed to both of them.

[han]

Agree with Mikeh, pretty sure his last sentence was a typo (RHO instead of LHO).

[AlternaG]

han, on Mar 11 2008, 02:26 PM, said:

Agree with Mikeh, pretty sure his last sentence was a typo (RHO instead of LHO).

That would make much more sense. I thought his line was well thought-out and insightful until he hooked the wrong guy

[mikeh]

han, on Mar 11 2008, 02:26 PM, said:

Agree with Mikeh, pretty sure his last sentence was a typo (RHO instead of LHO).

Yes, when I first wrote the post, I had rho/lho confused throughout, then caught almost all of the references using post preview, a feature that I use all the time because I tend to post long posts, and I am a poor typist (I guess I should say keyboardist). I missed the last one

[benlessard]

The main reason why LHO lead the ♥A instead of the Q or a ♠ is because he know RHO is broke so ill play LHO for the DQ.

[MFA]

Agree with the majority.
Finesse RHO if spades are 2-4
Play for drop if spades are 1-5
Finesse LHO if spades are 0-6.

[gwnn]

so what happened?

[han]

They won.