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NT lead What is yours?

#1 User is offline   ochinko 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 08:06

Imps, None vul, Expert opps, RHO is a star player.
Partner deals and passes, you hold:

10953
K73
K652
A10

You both pass all the way. The bidding from opps goes:

1 - 2*
2NT - 3NT

* - inverted minors

What do you lead?
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#2 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 08:17

zmall zpade
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#3 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 08:29

10

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the 3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#4 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 08:30

S
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#5 User is offline   dicklont 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 08:33

2
--
Finding your own mistakes is more productive than looking for partner's. It improves your game and is good for your soul. (Nige1)
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#6 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 08:35

, I think leading a spade is asking partner to have too much.
Kevin Fay
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#7 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 10:08

reverse flannery (2) because it's the fourth largest card from my longest and strongest suit.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#8 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 10:30

Diamond. Opener probably doesn't have four if he is honest. I don't agree that a spade is asking partner to have too much; we could easily hit Axxx or a 5 card suit. In fact, there are some people aganist whom I'd lead a spade (people that i know open weaker minor and who arent up to double crossing me)
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#9 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 10:47

Low diamond or a low spade. I don't think there's much difference frankly.
"Phil" on BBO
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#10 User is offline   oldman5757 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 12:17

At IMPs, I'd lead the 2. QJX, or even Q10x from P could be enough. If I lead a spade, I need P to have something like Axx or Axxx, and even that may not be enough. ;)
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#11 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 12:35

2. Obvious lead, anyone in doubt can ask my partner. ;)
Kind regards,
Harald
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#12 User is offline   Edmunte1 

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Posted 2008-February-28, 15:38

I see 3 choices , or . This is that kind of board where you have to make a good wish: partner has at maximum 5-6 hcp, and opps have a source of tricks and as long as A will be knocked out, they will usually make the game. Let's take a deeper look on every lead:

- lead - will work when partner has length and honours, and it's has a pretty small success expentacy: needs to find partener with Axxxx (and to be 22) or KQxxx.
- lead - probably best in MP's has some flaws. If inverted minors denies 4 cards major, it has frequntly 3+card in other minor (3325, 3235, 2335, 3145, 2245, 1345 are the most frequent shapes). Adding 2+ in the opener's hand, it's pretty improbable that partner has a 5 carder in . So usually in the best case we will make 4 tricks in diamonds, and this means it's not late to play diamonds even after we'll play A (3+A is not good enough)
- lead - pretty strangely, has a bigger chance of success than or. It needs Axxxx in partner's hand (or QJxxx and Ax in opps hand). And it's more probable than lead, because we have an increased chance to find a 5 carder in our 3 card suit, than in a 4 card suit, and it doesn't depend on lying 22, as in .
So statistically lead should work better than lead or lead
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#13 User is offline   joker_gib 

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Posted 2008-February-29, 10:20

Not a ;)

Likely a passive
Alain
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#14 User is offline   dcvetkov 

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Posted 2008-March-05, 11:47

Who opened the bidding? RHO?

Then I expect at least 1 of my kings to win, which means I may have another chance to strike the right suit, after ace of clubs is knocked out. It is not guaranteed that they have 9 tricks for taking after club ace is knocked out, unless one opp has 6 clubs.

I think I will still stick with a small spade, and hope partner has 5 with honour, Q10xx, QJxx, or some other helpful holding . If spade is dead wrong, then then we have to take 3 quick tricks after I win hopefully one of my red suit kings.

in MP, blowing overticks is always consideration, so I would lead spade for the same reason
[COLOR=blue] aka Dimitar
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