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12/9 or 11? which card?

Poll: Do you take the ace or let it run (18 member(s) have cast votes)

Do you take the ace or let it run

  1. Ace of Heart (12 votes [66.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 66.67%

  2. 3 of Heart (6 votes [33.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

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#1 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2008-February-25, 09:25

You play Matchpoints and you and your partner have:

Scoring: MP


You play poish club for this event, so you open

1♣ (2 ♥) pass (pass)
2 ♠ (pass) 4 ♠ all pass.

2 Heart was a weak two.

The lead is the Jack of hearts.

You don´t know your opponents, but they are surely not experts, an unknown couple.
They play SEF and the lead is standard in this case, so it is the Jack from KJTxxx
or from JTxxxx.

Do you take your 11 sure tricks, or do you go for 12? And why?
Kind Regards

Roland

Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
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#2 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2008-February-25, 10:12

I think many pairs will bid some cuebids telling everyone that the clubs are missing making a club lead obvious even from ♣Kx, but I don't know if 2 or 3 clubs can be cashed.

Anyway, heart lead from KJ10xxx on a suit that partner failed to raise is something I don't expect the field to do.

This means very few people will have a chance to make 12 tricks, and hopfully many will be already in 10, I take the insurance with 11 tricks.
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#3 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2008-February-25, 10:24

Fluffy, on Feb 25 2008, 10:12 AM, said:

I think many pairs will bid some cuebids telling everyone that the clubs are missing making a club lead obvious even from ♣Kx, but I don't know if 2 or 3 clubs can be cashed.

Anyway, heart lead from KJ10xxx on a suit that partner failed to raise is something I don't expect the field to do.

This means very few people will have a chance to make 12 tricks, and hopfully many will be already in 10, I take the insurance with 11 tricks.

Me too. Since RHO didn't raise, maybe LHO has JT-7th and RHO has Kx in hearts.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#4 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-February-25, 10:26

I don't think a heart lead from KJTxxx is that weird. Since West probably has 6 hearts at this vulnerability, I think RHO doesn't rate to have an honor. Maybe W is looking at the ♣A and a doubleton diamond and figured nothing else is attractive.

The other possibility is that West has JT-7th of hearts which also explains pard's non-raise with Kx.

So, you have two reasonable plays here that are both defensible.
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#5 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-February-25, 15:23

it's pretty insane to let it ride. Received a gift, don't hunt for another.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#6 User is offline   mr1303 

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Posted 2008-February-25, 15:27

I would play the A. I think I'm already doing well on the board (I expect 11 tricks to be at worst a 60-70% board) so unless I need a very good score (towards the end of the session and I think I'm a bit behind) I'll look to get my 100% board on another deal.
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#7 User is offline   brianshark 

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Posted 2008-February-26, 07:04

11 should be an average plus at least. I'm playing safe.
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#8 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2008-February-26, 12:13

mr1303, on Feb 25 2008, 10:27 PM, said:

I think I'm already doing well on the board (I expect 11 tricks to be at worst a 60-70% board)

brianshark, on Feb 26 2008, 02:04 PM, said:

11 should be an average plus at least.

Why?

You have 27 points between the two hands, so everyone will be in game. Most will be in 4S, a few will be in 3NT, and no one will be in 5D. It's possible, but not terribly likely, that someone will defend 5H, which is probably worth +500.

11 tricks will be above average if, and only if, LHO has a doubleton club or Kxx. Otherwise it will probably be slightly below average, because you will lose to anyone who is in 3NT.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#9 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-26, 15:04

I would duck this all day. LHO bid 2H and RHO didn't raise, LHO must be a big favorite to have the kng. Unless I had some reason to think the opps lead very passively I think going for it is clear.
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#10 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2008-February-26, 16:02

I'll duck in dummy all day. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the field to lead ♥J from KJTxxx, and RHO didn't raise. LHO is a BIG favourite to hold the ♥K.
Kind regards,
Harald
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