[Cascade]

Jlall, on Feb 6 2008, 06:31 PM, said:

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

Here's a better hand where slam has no play:

♠ KQxxxx
♥ AQx
♦ xx
♣ KQ

He would need a hand about this good to bid 5H with xx diamonds. The odds of the opps bidding this much when we have all the other points and they have 9 diamonds seems extremely low. So this whole parlay seems near-ridiculous to me.

Ok i concede a singleton or void diamond with partner is more likely.

[Cascade]

655321, on Feb 6 2008, 06:42 PM, said:

Cascade, on Feb 5 2008, 10:51 PM, said:

We encouraged partner to raise hearts when we bid 3♥.  I would expect partner to bid 5♥ more often than not with a heart fit.

Well, partner is very unlikely to be bidding 5 over 5 with 3 card support in a balanced hand. Why volunteer to play in an 8 card fit at the 5 level when you could be defending 5♦X? And if these hands are ruled out, slam is suddenly looking much better.

Just because you have three card support doesn't mean that you have an eight-card fit. Sure partner's 3♥ only promised five hearts but he will have six or seven hearts fairly often.

You can't have it both ways and assume that they have a ten-card fit and we have only an eight-card fit.

When we have not yet shown a fit there is a bigger pressure on us supporting at the five-level than for bidding on after we have already established a fit at a lower level. If we do not show support with three-card support then partner with six or even seven bad hearts won't necessarily be able to rebid them.

[ulven]

6H. While may not make, if I bid 5H, I'd want partner to raise on a hand like this.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

I would pass.

Going plus is more important than reaching
a slam, which may or may not be just a little
bit abvove 50% or 60%.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[gwnn]

We have little room to explore grand, so let's just settle for 6.

[han]

Let me give partner's hand just because. He had KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx, some would say this is not a 5H bid. In fact, you might go down even in 5H!

I did bid 6H, thanks for the responses.

[mikeh]

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

Here's a better hand where slam has no play:

♠ KQxxxx
♥ AQx
♦ xx
♣ KQ

And I thought that I was one of the most pessimistic bridge players of all time!!

We are looking at the A spades, the A clubs.... and the heart K and partner is bidding 5♥. While the opps are already at 5♦, and we are playing partner for 2 diamond losers???? It may happen, but it's about as likely as getting hit by a truck the next time you cross the road.

Slam bidding is about controls and tricks. We have the controls, and a wonderful holding in partner's major. Slam comes with no guarantee, but it is the height (depth?) of pessimism not to bid it.

[pclayton]

I'll go.

[gwnn]

pclayton, on Feb 6 2008, 07:31 PM, said:

I'll go.

Yea I'll go walk my dog/catch my train/etc when I see pard's hand for 5H

[Cascade]

Hannie, on Feb 7 2008, 05:09 AM, said:

Let me give partner's hand just because. He had KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx, some would say this is not a 5H bid. In fact, you might go down even in 5H!

I did bid 6H, thanks for the responses.

Yes this is a bad hand.

But it illustrates the pressure partner is under to bid 5♥.

If you would pass with that add the ♣K and slam is still hopeless.

[Cascade]

mikeh, on Feb 7 2008, 05:55 AM, said:

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

Here's a better hand where slam has no play:

♠ KQxxxx
♥ AQx
♦ xx
♣ KQ

And I thought that I was one of the most pessimistic bridge players of all time!!

We are looking at the A spades, the A clubs.... and the heart K and partner is bidding 5♥. While the opps are already at 5♦, and we are playing partner for 2 diamond losers???? It may happen, but it's about as likely as getting hit by a truck the next time you cross the road.

Slam bidding is about controls and tricks. We have the controls, and a wonderful holding in partner's major. Slam comes with no guarantee, but it is the height (depth?) of pessimism not to bid it.

I did later concede that two diamonds was relatively unlikely.

[Fluffy]

Having all te aces, and the ace in partner's long suit I think we are favurite to run 12 tricks, havinf pened a 5 card suit really helps n this auction, 6♥ for me.

[han]

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 03:06 PM, said:

Hannie, on Feb 7 2008, 05:09 AM, said:

Let me give partner's hand just because. He had KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx, some would say this is not a 5H bid. In fact, you might go down even in 5H!

I did bid 6H, thanks for the responses.

Yes this is a bad hand.

But it illustrates the pressure partner is under to bid 5♥.

If you would pass with that add the ♣K and slam is still hopeless.

Oh yes, nobody argues that slam is a lock. But most seem to think that it is likely enough to bid on.

[Cascade]

Hannie, on Feb 7 2008, 10:27 AM, said:

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 03:06 PM, said:

Hannie, on Feb 7 2008, 05:09 AM, said:

Let me give partner's hand just because. He had KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx, some would say this is not a 5H bid. In fact, you might go down even in 5H!

I did bid 6H, thanks for the responses.

Yes this is a bad hand.

But it illustrates the pressure partner is under to bid 5♥.

If you would pass with that add the ♣K and slam is still hopeless.

Oh yes, nobody argues that slam is a lock. But most seem to think that it is likely enough to bid on.

I understand.

I am trying to think how best to do a simulation here.

It depends on how often partner will push to the five-level with rubbish.

I will look at it some more later.

[jdonn]

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 05:54 PM, said:

I understand.

I am trying to think how best to do a simulation here.

It depends on how often partner will push to the five-level with rubbish.

I will look at it some more later.

If partner is bidding 5♥ on hands like the actual one, which is beyond sick, then I'm sure pass will be the winner.

[655321]

jdonn, on Feb 6 2008, 05:57 PM, said:

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 05:54 PM, said:

I understand.

I am trying to think how best to do a simulation here.

It depends on how often partner will push to the five-level with rubbish.

I will look at it some more later.

If partner is bidding 5♥ on hands like the actual one, which is beyond sick, then I'm sure pass will be the winner.

Yes, it seems that you need to do 2 simulations.

First, a simulation to convince yourself that routinely bidding 5/5 is a big loser.
Second, use the results in your second simulation, such that partner's 5/5 is for real.

[mikestar]

We are on a guess. If we're playing that pass and pull shows slam interest, then I pass--partner may be stretching for his 5 over 5. 6♥ isn't grossly wrong--I just think pass is going with the odds.

[Codo]

jdonn, on Feb 7 2008, 07:57 AM, said:

If partner is bidding 5♥ on hands like the actual one, which is beyond sick, then I'm sure pass will be the winner.

I am happy to learn:

You open 1 Spade with
KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx,

when you have to bid again, your rho just did bid 5 Diamond over pds 3 Heart.

Your choice?

1. pass, we may even go down in 5 of major?
2. Pass and pull pds double to show a good hand for slam?
3. Pass and pull, this shows that my hand is not suitable for a slam?
4. X this is optional, I do not need to show my solid spades or my heart fit. I have no trump tricks, but well double is at least successful in the post mortem?
5. 5 Heart shows support, no, this is sick, no even beyond sick
6. 5 Spade. This will slow down partner because I hide my support and we may play at the 5. level?

I mean, after this start of the bidding, you do feel a little pressure don´t you?
I totally agree that 5 Heart was no kind of a beauty, but if this is sick, what is healthy?

[gnasher]

I don't understand why everyone's talking about hands where partner has only three hearts. Surely a greater risk is that he has a moderate hand with four or five hearts? It would be hard not to bid 5H with KQJxx Q10xxx x Kx or Q10xxxx AQxx x Kx.

I'm not arguing against bidding 6H, particularly, but just trying to provide more realistic examples of the downside.

[dake50]

Instead of 5H, partner must double when seeing 2xD losers. So 0-1xD-loser and 6H stands out.