[xx1943]

Scoring: IMP

West  North East  South
   -        -       -      1♦
Pass    1♠    Pass   3♦
Pass    5♦    Pass  Pass
Pass

---

Hi all,
this is an example for intermediates, how to plan their declarerplay.
The deal came up in a Rays-ladder match. One table was down 1 in 3NT (after very bad declarer play). At the other table declarer finally found the right line in 5♦.
I personally dislike the 3♦ bid. 14 HCP is not enough for this jump imho. (Though nice suit and good controls; 3QT)

You count your losers (as usual in a suit-contract) and see you have:
1 sure loser in ♦ and 2 possible losers in ♥ losers.
At first glance you see 3 possibilities to get rid of at least one of the ♥
1) ♣s maybe distributed 3-3.
2) ♠s can be established in time
3) Dummy has ruffing potential
There is a 4. possibility though.

1) What are the odds to win 3NT after 1♦ 1♠ 2♦ 3♣ 3NT and the automatic heart lead?
2) How do you plan 5♦ after after ♠ ♥ ♦ or ♣ lead.
Does it make a difference, if ♦A is led first?
3) What are your odds to win 5♦ with each of the leads?
4) What is the 4th possible line of play? (for more advanced players)

Enjoy

Al

[vuroth]

I'll give this a shot.

1. 3NT. I can make if hearts are 4/4, or if they're 5/3 or worse if the short heart hand has the ace of diamonds, via hold-up.

2. I have a hard time puzzling out the differences based on lead. I want to draw trump first, which to me rules out ruffing the third heart - unless opponents lead hearts, in which case I'm ducking the first one (this helps for 4 below, I think - they can't continue hearts without setting up the ruff early for me).

Looking a bit harder, I think the spade option will always come home - unless they start with clubs and lead clubs again after taking the A♦, in which case I won't have the entries to promote the spade. In this case, I'll try for 4 below.

3. Ugh. Probablility? On best defense - 36% for a 3-3 club split, plus a bit for being able to squeeze hearts or spades.

4. Novice shot in the dark.

I think there are squeeze possibilities. I'm sure there's a lot I can't see to it, but one possiblity is that the KQ♥ are in the hand with longer clubs (if clubs split I'm fine).

---

If the K♠ has fallen by this point (if E had it too), I'm home. If not, playing the last diamond from south squeezes east (or west, if the hands are reversed). If nothing useful drops by then, I can still play for a 3-3 split in clubs.

[bid_em_up]

Spoiler

double post.

[bid_em_up]

Spoiler

On any lead but a heart, by far the best play to make is by simply taking a ruffing finesse in spades (pitching a heart if the spade Q is not covered, the spade Jack will provide a parking place for the other losing heart). You will lose no more than the spade King and the diamond Ace.

So for now, others can deal with the problem of a heart lead.

[xx1943]

bid_em_up, on Jan 15 2008, 10:45 PM, said:

Spoiler

On any lead but a heart, by far the best play to make is by simply taking a ruffing finesse in spades (pitching a heart if the spade Q is not covered, the spade Jack will provide a parking place for the other losing heart). You will lose no more than the spade King and the diamond Ace.

So for now, others can deal with the problem of a heart lead.

After a club lead, you must unblock ♠A, go to table with a ♣, (say) lose the ♠ ruffing finesse to West, who now opens the ♥ suit. To enjoy your discard on ♠J, you need the ♣s to be 3-3 to get there.

Al

[bid_em_up]

deleted

[FrancesHinden]

xx1943, on Jan 15 2008, 02:21 PM, said:

1) What are the odds to win 3NT after 1♦ 1♠ 2♦ 3♣ 3NT and the automatic heart lead?

Pretty good. Ignoring diamonds 5-0 (when 3NT might still make with clubs 3-3 but 5D almost certainly won't) You need any of

- hearts 4-4
- The hand on lead having the 10 of hearts
- hearts 5-3 with the short hand having the ace of diamonds
- hearts 6-2 with someone having KQ, K10 or Q10 doubleton, or the shortage having the DA
- hearts 7-1 with singleton honour, or the shortage having the DA

4-4 hearts is 33%
Of the remaining 67%, half of the time the 10 will be on lead, giving another 33%
Of the remaining 33%, 24% of the time hearts will be 5-3 without the 10 on lead, and the ace of diamonds will be with the shortage 10/18 of the time, giving another 13%.

That's up to about 80% before we add in the chance of the hearts being 6-2 or 7-1 with the DA in the short hand, or 6-2/7-1 and blocked.

Looks a better spot than 5D to me...

[655321]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 16 2008, 04:21 AM, said:

xx1943, on Jan 15 2008, 02:21 PM, said:

1) What are the odds to win 3NT after 1♦ 1♠ 2♦ 3♣ 3NT and the automatic heart lead?

Pretty good. Ignoring diamonds 5-0 (when 3NT might still make with clubs 3-3 but 5D almost certainly won't) You need any of

- hearts 4-4
- The hand on lead having the 10 of hearts

Why does it matter if the ♥10 is on lead?

[vuroth]

Are there definitive answers forthcoming?

[FrancesHinden]

655321, on Jan 16 2008, 10:58 AM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Jan 16 2008, 04:21 AM, said:

xx1943, on Jan 15 2008, 02:21 PM, said:

1) What are the odds to win 3NT after 1♦ 1♠ 2♦ 3♣ 3NT and the automatic heart lead?

Pretty good. Ignoring diamonds 5-0 (when 3NT might still make with clubs 3-3 but 5D almost certainly won't) You need any of

- hearts 4-4
- The hand on lead having the 10 of hearts

Why does it matter if the ♥10 is on lead?

Sorry, just pretend I put in a deliberate mistake to see if anyone was reading my replies...

[y66]

1. prob(3N=) = prob(hearts 4-4) + prob(hearts 5-3 & DA with long hearts) + prob (hearts are blocked, ie, KQ opposite Txxxxx)

2a) they lead a spade ... Don't think we're getting a heart ruff. Might though if DA is singleton.

SA, small heart losing, DA by them, diamond to ten, ruff spade, top diamond, club to ace, ruff spade, club to king, ruff spade, club to queen, hoping SK drops at some point or clubs 3-3.

prob(5D=) = prob(singleton DA) + prob(spades 4-3) + prob(clubs 3-3) + prob(singleton SK) + prob(doubleton SK)

2b) they lead a heart ... If we duck they'll shift to diamonds before we unblock SA.

HA, then SA, then small heart, then as above.

prob(5D=) = as above

2c) they lead a diamond ... Doesn't matter if they lead small diamond or DA. We can't use DT as an entry before we unblock SA, so we can't setup 5th spade. But we can take a ruffing finesse on 3rd round of spades. If RHO has singleton DA, he will shift to a club.

prob(5D=) = prob(clubs 3-3) + prob(RHO has SK) + prob(LHO has singleton SK) + prob(LHO has doubleton SK)

2d) they lead a club ... Now we have only 2 sure entries to dummy. Maybe a 3rd if LHO has DA.

prob(5D=) and LHO has DA = .5 * prob in 2c

prob(5D=) and RHO has DA = .5 * (prob(clubs 3-3) + prob(RHO has SK) + prob(LHO has singleton SK))

3) See above

4) If opp with long clubs also has KQ of hearts, maybe we can setup a squeeze.

Good problem. Very difficult for me. Taking aspirin now and going to bed.

[vuroth]

The way I drew up my squeeze looks wrong in retrospect. Not sure what the right way to play is.