[pclayton]

Scoring: IMP

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You reach 3N after bashing over pard's opening. LHO leads the ♠Q and you decide to duck T1 as there is no immediate shift that can hurt you. LHO shifts to a heart.

What's happening in the spade suit?

Try to imagine a few layouts that give you an extra chance in case there's a problem.

Ad / exp - hold off on answering unless the B/I's aren't getting this.

[ArcLight]

Spoiler

I wonder if West has AQJx(x) in Spades and an outside entry (a Diamond honor like the K)

Keep East off lead.
Win the heart in dummy, lead a dime towards the 10
Assume you lose
Win the heart return in dummy, lead a dime towards the Q
Assume you lose
Win the heart return in hand.
You need 5 tricks and all the clubs. You can't duck a Dime to West (if possible)because you will lose 3D and 2S.

You have to hope the Clubs break
Club to Ace
Club to K
Club towards dummy.

However. If your first Dime finnesse forces out the K, you don't need 5 Clubs, just 4, so win the heart in dummy and lead a low club towards Dummy, hoping to duck into West. If East plays the 7, you are forced to guess to duck or cover.
I would cover and hope the Clubs break.

Two advantages of taking the first Spade are:
- its a trick that you probably can't get later
- you can win the spade, and then try 2 rounds of hearts ending in dummy and lead another spade, hoping to end play West who has no more hearts you hope

[vuroth]

Spades:

LHO should have at least 4 spades.
4:
RHO has Axx? I think LHO would continue the J from QJTx. So no.
RHO has Txx? I think LHO would signal with the higher x, and LHO would continue low to the T. So no.
RHO has xxx? LHO continues J from AQJT.

5:
RHO has Ax? No chance - RHO would unblock
RHO has Tx or xx? Not sure. Maybe, but maybe RHO would hi-low from these holdings.

6:
If RHO is single in spades, LHO would know immediately that we have the K, because partner would unblock with Kx or K. With Kxx, RHO would play the middle card, and LHO would continue spades.

I think LHO saw the lowest spade possible from RHO. If it was a singleton, RHO knows we're Kxx, and will switch suits. This could be good news for us.

One danger holding is Jxxx in RHO. In this case, we only have 3♥, 1♦ and 4♣. The real problem is if we lose to the J♣ and RHO leads a ♠ through us. Given the play, maybe we can survive that.

Another danger holding is J9xxx in RHO. If so we only have 3♥ 1♦ and 3♣. I think I can only make this if RHO also holds the KJ of ♦.

Win ♥ on board, cash A of ♣. If LHO shows out, start finessing diamonds. If both follow, cash K♣. If RHO shows out, Q♣, run the ♥ and exit ♣, and hope you don't get a ♠ switch. Opponents may get a ♥ or 2, but the hope is that LHO ends up having to lead a ♦ or ♠ to you.

Of course, I'm sure I'm way off....

V

[Echognome]

Spoiler

I would have taken the first spade. Then if after two rounds of clubs West must have shown out for there to be an issue. If that happens, then I will exit spades to tighten the position for the endgame.

[cherdano]

This problem is too tough for me, I don't understand why we ducked at trick one.