[twcho]

Scoring: IMP

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You play in 7D by N, no opposed bidding. First lead H2. What is the best line of play?

[WGF_Flame]

After alot of thinking i decided that its best to play small at trick one against a good diffender, who usually will not lead a singelton vs 7, and i think its more then 50% line. the other simple option is playing the finesse of club which is oviously 50%.
The all story would change if u got the 10 of dimond in hand (and maybe even the 9) with this 10 u got more lines that doesnt depend on 3-2 dimond.
The normal line is to play A of heart at trick one , ruff a spade , take out the trumps, check the heart suit for 3-3 and if not take the finnese.
An alternative line (which is just as good) would be to Drop the 10 on the A and if on the second turn of heart, on the second heart u play 8 to the K, and if the 9 or J drops from west, u play on finnesing east. if west drops the 9 or J u know he is either 9x Jx or J9x (if he got 9xx or Jxx it doesnt matter), then finnesing is a nice line of 66% (not 50% due to restricted choice) which is exctly the same as playing for 3-3 or a finnese.
so u got two lines with same pracantage, unless the lead tell u which is better.

a bad alternatives - if u think this lead is either a singeltor or a suit with a J , u got the line of playing the A , droping the 8 , and then finnesing east twice on heart .imo this lead would be 3 smalls more times then singelton and therefore this line isnt good.

[inquiry]

Ok.. I fly the !HT, east covers with the ♥J (else I think I have less problems), I win King (seems tricker than ACE or QUEEN to me).

I cash ♦AQ, assume both follow twice (but hope at least both follow once), ♠ACE and ruff a ♠. The position is now with lead in south....

Scoring: IMP

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Two lines suggest themselves here (and neither is ♣ hook). One is to cash a top ♥ discarding the ♥8 from dummy. This opens up chance for a ♥ hook if WEST had only 1♥ and 2 ♦, but runs the risk that the ♥ might be ruffed. I go for option two, which is to play a ♣ to the ACE and run ♦ and the last ♠. Now if the ♣Q is not not good, try to run your ♥. This wins anytime,

1) ♥9 falls in three rounds of ♥
2) The ♣ king is singleton
3) the hand with the ♣K held four (or more) hearts to the nine.

So while the ♣ hook is roughly 50/50, this line is significantly better than that. Odds any 3-3 or 4-2 ♥ split with short 9 (odd of this are already somewhat higher than 50%, especially if they lead 3 rd best). The odd of a stiff ♣King are not great (about 2.4% and this is only additive for when the 9 isn't falling). Finally when neither king nor ♥9 is falling, they will be together just slightly less than half the time (assuming 4-2 ♥ split, it is less than 50, 50 because there will be two less "free spots" in the hand with the long ♥ to hold the ♣King.

Ben

[luis]

Who is North?
The post says 7d by North and so the lead comes crossing hearts.
I assume south is at the bottom.....

[inquiry]

luis, on Feb 25 2004, 03:19 PM, said:

Who is North?
The post says 7d by North and so the lead comes crossing hearts.
I assume south is at the bottom.....

gack.. .thought declarer on bottomm... ok, same line, but now ♥J falling, I am playing the ACE, and unblock the ♥8.

[luis]

Yikes, it's a terrible hand because you can't test if hearts are 3-3 before taking the club finesse.

a) The pedrestrian club finesse (hA, dA, dQ, spade to A, sp ruff, now club finesse....)
Take the hA unblocking the T, dA, dQ, sA, spade ruff
and now
b1) Cash a second heart unblocking the 8
b2) club to the ace directly and then run the diamonds

If the hJ or h9 drops doubleton is that J9x or is Hx and I must finesse. Is the squeeze or hearts 3-3 better than the club finesse? How to factor the dreaded decision of playing for hearts 3-3 or 4-2 in the end....

[EricK]

Whether it is the best line, I don't know. But I would rise with the ♥A, cash ♦AQ, cross to ♠A, ruff ♠2, cross to ♣A, and run ♦ and ♠K discarding ♣s.

If ♣K hasn't made an appearance, then I hope to cash out in ♥.

At least then if I go down, it happens at trick 13.

Eric

[inquiry]

luis, on Feb 25 2004, 03:58 PM, said:

If the hJ or h9 drops doubleton is that J9x or is Hx and I must finesse. Is the squeeze or hearts 3-3 better than the club finesse? How to factor the dreaded decision of playing for hearts 3-3 or 4-2 in the end....

Some quick stabs at the math. For the first part, assume south declarer and you try the 8 covered by the nine at trick one.

Simple line
1) ♣ hook lets call it 50%

Multiple line
1) ♥ 3-3
2) ♥J or ♥Jx
3) hand with ♥Jxxx(x) also has ♣K

Ok simple line, let's call it 50%.

Second line, after first ♥J singleton is no longer an option, but Jx (either way) is 12.4% and odds of 3-3 ♥ split is 40.7%, so ♥ will work out 53.1% of the time. In addition, the remaining 46.9% of the time, the club king will be with the hand with the ♥J just slightly less than half the time (less space in hand due to the extra two or three ♥'s a good estiamte is 45% of the time)...So 46.9*45%=21% additional chance.

So from a pure mathematical apporoach, option 1 is 50%, option 2 is 74.2%.

Now let's have EAST make the opening lead. The ♣ hook is still 50%, the 3-3 ♥ split is still 40.7% now that 6-0 and 5-1 with stiff jack are eliminated. But the proposed line of play dropping the doubleton ♥J is no longer useful to you as the ♥ suit is blocked. So the odds will be the 40.7% of ♥3-3 and the odds that the person with 4+♥ also holds the ♣K, which would be something like 45%(king with long hearts)*59.3 (odds hearts not 3-3)=26.7%, reducing the odds to ~67.4%. The difference between 67.4 and 50 is significant, but if you know something about the opening leader, like for instance when does he lead a trump versus leading a side suit against slam, that might weigh in your favor. If for example you are certain that he would never lead from a three card side suit against slam, for instance, then taking the finessee although "mathematically" not the best shot looking at both hands, would be the correct play. This is why mathematicians often are not the best bridge players... and why psychologist and detectives can be outstanding players even without being able to calculate percentages.

Ben

[Trpltrbl]

From my point of view, you need to unblock the 8 and 10 of ♥ as soon as possible, hopefully opps lead 4th from 9xxx, or maybe 3rd from 9xx but then the hand is a laydown, which I guess it is not. And of course you also still have the squeeze against east if they hold the K of ♣ and 4 or more ♥ to the jack or against west.

Mike