[irdoz]

Scoring: MP

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This is my first time trying to type a hand so don't jump on me

This is an odds question.

You made it to what looks a safe 7h after west bid spades to the 6 level.

Lead is the ace of spades.

One of these three things are going to happen

i) trumps are 5-0
ii) west has a diamond void
iii) west has a club void

At the table how do you quickly work out the odds? (I always get these wrong..and I did).

[the hog]

This is my first time trying to type a hand so don't jump on me

This is an odds question.

You made it to what looks a safe 7h after west bid spades to the 6 level.

Lead is the ace of spades.

One of these three things are going to happen

i) trumps are 5-0
ii) west has a diamond void
iii) west has a club void
At the table how do you quickly work out the odds? (I always get these wrong..and I did).

Ross, without giving you exact odds, because no doubt Ben will produce a table of odds for you, an easy way of approaching this at the table without having to do any mathematical calculations would be as follows -

You have:
8 hearts, 5 outstanding
9 clubs, 4 outstanding
7 diamonds, 6 outstanding.

In general, the more outstanding cards there are, the less likely it is that one of the opps is void in that suit; so I would ruff low, cash the A of H and play a D to the Ace.

This does not take any of the following into account, however - there has been no opposition bidding or lightner double for the lead.

[inquiry]

This one is easy...

You are worried about...

5-0 heart split
4-0 club split, or
6-0 diamond split.

Which split is most likely? Can you guess without an odds table?
Which is least likely?

Ok.. a 6-0 split is least likely, and a 4-0 is mos likely.

Ruff low, cash !HA, and cross to the !DA... sometimes it just isn't your day if this fails....

ben

BTW...
6-0 split is 1.49% (if you limit one way, half that)
5-0 split is 3.914%, and
4-0 split is 9.566%

[irdoz]

I crossed in diamonds and got ruffed .

I noticed two of the better declarers played against the odds (they also had west bid to 6s (vulnerable versus non vul))...It made me wonder if they thought bidding to a vulnerable 6s (versus non vul) said something about west's hand.

Guess it wasn't my day.

[bridgeboy]

On paper, I think the chances of a D void is least.

However at the table, I think a very possible line (What I would play) would be to ruff high with the Ace of Hearts and draw trumps.

Firstly, this protects against a 11 card suit with West (more than 30% chance after a Vulnerable 6S opening)

Secondly, even if you are unfortunate to find a 5-0 trump break, you still have lots of residual chance of a trump coup. In fact, I have not really worked it out but I bet Ben and others can, I propose that if you can work out the remaining distribution of the cards, you can always make by cashing the minors tin the correct order.

I suppose this goes in hand with leaving your options open and not putting your eggs in one basket.

P.S: I'm sure this reasoning is flawed someway cos I'm no expert

[luis]

bridgeboy, on Feb 23 2004, 07:01 AM, said:

On paper, I think the chances of a D void is least.

However at the table, I think a very possible line (What I would play) would be to ruff high with the Ace of Hearts and draw trumps.

Firstly, this protects against a 11 card suit with West (more than 30% chance after a Vulnerable 6S opening)

Secondly, even if you are unfortunate to find a 5-0 trump break, you still have lots of residual chance of a trump coup. In fact, I have not really worked it out but I bet Ben and others can, I propose that if you can work out the remaining distribution of the cards, you can always make by cashing the minors tin the correct order.

I suppose this goes in hand with leaving your options open and not putting your eggs in one basket.

P.S: I'm sure this reasoning is flawed someway cos I'm no expert

An 11 card suit?
Wow, do you have any idea of the odds of an 11 card suit ?
I held -once- a 10 card suit and I'm not planning to have another one in my whole life.
Diamonds 6-0 are less likely than hearts 5-0 but since the hand was bid wildely and nobody doubled I think that hearts are not 5-0, because the guy with 5 hearts might have doubled on general principles.
So there might be a reason to ruff with the hA and draw trumps but it's not an 11 card suit.

[Trpltrbl]

I'll ruff with the Ace of ♥ and pull trump, if trump are 5-0 and they didn't X on that, I can still make it on some trumpcoup. When the bidding has gone wild we are going to have some voids some where and even though ♦ is less likely the chance is still there. And if the person has 5 trump he might have considered Xing.

Mike

[Gerardo]

luis, on Feb 23 2004, 10:35 AM, said:

An 11 card suit?
Wow, do you have any idea of the odds of an 11 card suit  ?
I held -once- a 10 card suit and I'm not planning to have another one in my whole life.

I have one a SOLID 11-card suit (missing two x's) with Kx on the side.

But the freaking thing is:

Spoiler

I had the same hand, with the same suits 11♠,2♥, just missing spots were different (but consecutives both times), and ♥ spot, didn't even look at it, just three WEEKS later, at different places.

[Free]

If you'd have bid 7♥ without intervention, your play would've been the correct one imo, but with these funny biddings, everything can happen. I think Luis has a point, and that here a 5-0 ♥ split is now less likely than a 6-0 ♦ split...

[mishovnbg]

Spoiler

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Hi irdoz!
You didn't post exactly bids, they are very important in my opinion. You also didn't mention who exactly ruffed you, but I suppose was E. Why? Because to compete, not to bid directly very high, West had 2 suiter. His second suit is likely ♦, because you have less cards there. Knoledge of exactly percentage of distributions would not help you, because as I many time posted, any bid and lead change them by so complex way, that same percent can be used only for excuse when you go down (by the way not bad way of science application ).
About your question - expect void ♥ in W. He didn't dbl for side void, so he is void in ♥. Of course he can have 2 voids, one of them in ♥, probably your case, and E will ruff your ♦. Forget about, same will happen to you, if ever, after at least several years . About the "better" declarers that made it - best play is not nesessary wining play - reason why experts can be beaten too .

Spoiler

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Misho

[inquiry]

irdoz, on Feb 22 2004, 07:18 PM, said:

I crossed in diamonds and got ruffed .

I noticed two of the better declarers played against the odds (they also had west bid to 6s (vulnerable versus non vul))...It made me wonder if they thought bidding to a vulnerable 6s (versus non vul) said something about west's hand.

Guess it wasn't my day.

Odds are best used for quiet auctions. If your vulnerable opponent bid to 6♠ against you when you and your partner hold 32 HCP's. It is time to stop and really consider the auction (as misho pointed out). In the original problem, you simply said contract was 7♥ and what was the odds.

Ok, did West go to 7♠ by himself, or did EAST raise? The one distribution that you can throw out is that EAST is void in ♦ or ♣ because presumably he has heard of ligthner double. Another thing to worry about is that ♠ACE lead. If the bidding had been 6♠ (opening bid), I would be greatly worried the ♠ruff would be overrruffed. Luis commented on the odds of a 11-0-2-0 split, but I did have a solid 10 card suit once, with side AKx.... 12 sure tricks, and only card in partners hand that is sure to help was the Q in my side suit. This was in the 1972 Cincinnati Ohio ACBL Spring Nationals, open pairs). Fortunately we were playing super precison and I found out that partner did have the side queen.

So to figure out exactly how I would play, if different from low ♦, I would need to know the auction. But I doubt EAST ruffed the ♦ because with ♦ void I think he would double 7♥s.