[the hog]

I have a theory for bidding over pre empts, based on an analysis of about 100 hands or so; but first, what do you bid here?

(3H) ?

---

I don't think the form of the game or the vul is important but fwiw, imps, both vul.

[helium]

i think the Voul is always important, if opps are voul and we not its bigger risk for pd passing my X ect.
but on this hand i think whit my regular pd i whould bid 4 H showing spade and one minor and a strong hand, (4nt show both minor)
but whit a pick up partner i whould X

[Gerben47]

Bidding a 2-suiter on 5422 seems completely wrong to me. 3♠ might work, of course, but I think the big winner is... 3NT.

[inquiry]

This is a kind of hand where Mishovnbg's Meta overcall (see http://bridgebase.lunarpages.com/~bridge2/...ic=1438&hl=Meta ) can come into play. The basic theory of this meta overcall is that a 4♦ bid on this auction shows ♦'s and ♠'s. Think of it as leaping michaels without the michaels.

The problem with both Misho's 4♦ bid and helium's 4♥ cue-bid (he uses to show the same type hand but with unknown minor), is that it forcloses the opportunity to play 3♥X (helium points out that if they were vul, this would be a concern for him). But this is also the problem with a simple 3♠ overcall.

I think playing standard bidding, I would have no qualms regardless the vulnerability doubling with hand. If partner chooses to make a penalty pass, with two ♥ to the king, and all those side suit kings, I would be quite happy to defend. Playing META overcalls, the double here is not what it sounds like. It is asking for 3NT with a ♥ stopper and in general shows a minor one suiter or two suiter (since you can't bid a minor when you have it). This isn't necessarily a flaw of META overcall (but because of it, I am beginning to think I want to play them at a level of 3♣ or less....) since it has advantages and disadvantages. So playing META, I would choose 4♦ - experience shows partner usually corrects to 4♠ but sometimes passes and sometimes we get to 5/6♦.

Without Meta overcalls, in the long run I think a simple double with this hand is best, especially if your kind partner is clever enough to bid 3♠ on weak hands with a 3 card ♠ suit.

[mishovnbg]

.....................................................Hi Ron!.......................................................
...When no space for science bidding, can help some statistics+imagination(computers can't do that yet ). The first look on hand - not enough A for game. The second look - ♥K is probably good, but ♣K is probably bad. If p have ♣A, then ♦ suit is not good. If partner got ♣A and ♦A he will probably not pass any my bid except dbl if he like to penalize opps. Only game which I can miss with simple overcall of 3♠ is 5♦ if my p have hand like: x,xxx,Axxxx,QJxx or x,xxx,Axxxxx,Qxx. What about dbl? I don't expect my p to bid 4♠ with hand like Jxxx,xxx,Jxx,Axx or 5♦ with above hands. He can pass my 3♠ overcall too, but less likely. 3NT will be nice bid if I had ♥Ax/Kxx instead of ♥Kx, I can duck first and hope for no entry for ♥. With actual ♥Kx, ducking can help only to opps... 3NT can be still good contract, if my p have another stop in ♥ and I can ask him about, but standard bidding doesn't allow such question. Bammmmmmmm... Need to bid something and I will pick up 3♠ overcall we can make 4♠ based on distribution too and I dont like to play game without nice support in ♠ suit.
...Playing meta overcalls: agree with Ben, 4♦ will work very well here and can miss only penalty double - not likely with ♥Kx. If you like to try 3NT, you can dbl too, because by meta you can have bal hand without stop too, not only minor hands and if your p bid 4♣(P/C) you can bid 4♠. If he bid over 4♠ 4NT(minors) you can bid 5♦. May be such sequence will catch all possible contracts, include penalty dbl, what do you think Ben?
..............................................................................................Misho

[luis]

I'm curious about your theory....
In this hand I bid an unimaginative 3s.

[inquiry]

mishovnbg, on Feb 19 2004, 12:52 PM, said:

...Playing meta overcalls: agree with Ben, 4♦ will work very well here and can miss only penalty double - not likely with ♥Kx. If you like to try 3NT, you can dbl too, because by meta you can have bal hand without stop too, not only minor hands and if your p bid 4♣(P/C) you can bid 4♠. If he bid over 4♠ 4NT(minors) you can bid 5♦. May be such sequence will catch all possible contracts, include penalty dbl, what do you think Ben?
..............................................................................................Misho

If playing the double is generally balanced looking for a stopper, then by all means, this hand would qualify.... pulling 4♣ to 4♠. I was thinking that a double here however might be quite unbalanced, say with a source of tricks in one on the minors and absolutely no ♥ stopper... just the kind of hand you would not want partner to make a penatly pass with ... say a hand something like...
♠QTx ♥void ♦AKJTxxx ♣AQx.

If you can't have this hand for the 3 level meta double, then it is ok, but then how do you ever bid the hand above? Anyway, if you are willing to deal with this hand then find. And oh, BTW, I assume meta/bid is off in the balancing seat... is that right?

Ben

[the hog]

My theory is that on the majority of hands in the 17-20 point range, you are best to bid 3N even when holding a 5 card major. I have kept records over the past 12 months or so, and have also dealt a number of practice hands with my pd, where the opps open 3? and next hand holds that range. 3N was the the winning bid more often than X or 3M.

Sure there were times when you could not find the making 4M after 3N went down, but the reverse was true more often. Take the posted hand:

---

At our table, I opened 3H, next hand doubled, partner passed and Nth bid 5C. This was off on a D lead, ruff, A of H, H ruff. Note that 3N is cold. Sure, Nth could maybe bid 3N, but that is a big ask with only half a stopper.

This hand caused a fair bit of grief at a few tables; I note that Bill Jacobs, ex Aust International, posted it on rgb as well. Anyway, what do posters think of a direct 3N over 3H?

I must admit Misho, I like the sound of meta overcalls. maybe I should revisit that thread.

Ron

[Charis]

It's a tough call, but I'm nervous that 3NT could go down in flames. Simply swap the W and N hands, heart lead, club return on seeing dummy, and pow, down 3. With the hands swapped, maybe North won't let 3NT stand. He won't expect you to hold 5 spades to the AQT, and the diamond suit is ratty. Give LHO one more of the outstanding Aces and it's even worse.

In the actual hand, suit contracts only went sour due to the 6-1 diamond split coupled with the singleton heart.

Double seems nice if taken as optional, since with the presumed stopper you're ok if partner passes and we defend. Or the semi-solid long clubs ask for on offensive bid of 3NT.

Overall though, I think I'm with Luis on this one
But I will keep an eye out now for 'how well would 3NT have worked over the preempt' - so thanks for pointing this out.
Charis

[inquiry]

I maybe misreading Marty Bergen's theories, but if I recall (thrump doubles and the like), he also favors looking for 3NT after enemy preempts. Seems like this was a major point in ore part of points schmoints, or more points Schmoints... So at least you are in good company.

Ben

[Trpltrbl]

When 3 NT is an option, bid it, and I for one will.

Mike

[inquiry]

The_Hog, on Feb 19 2004, 04:46 PM, said:

My theory is that on the majority of hands in the 17-20 point range, you are best to bid 3N even when holding a 5 card major. I have kept records over the past 12 months or so, and have also dealt a number of practice hands with my pd, where the opps open 3? and next hand holds that range. 3N was the the winning bid more often than X or 3M.

The idea of just bidding 3NT with the big old balanced hand, as I noted above in my reply to your statement has a lot of merit. I have had four hands since your post where a direct 3NT would probably work out ok. Here is a hand I had yesterday with the think with the "experts" that didn't come off so good for me (although doubt immediate 3NT will help here either).

Scoring: Chicago

---

East opened 2♥ first seat. It is not clear that this is a normal weak two, there was no alert, so I assume it was meant as one. But it might have been one of those bids that shows 5♥ and another 4 card+ suit. Since this is certainly not a typical first seat weak two.

Instead of blasting 3NT, I choose a double. I was playing with Misho, there is a gray area here in Meta overcall... should 2NT here be "heart stopper" or should it be lebehnshol. School is still out on this issue, but I think at two level it should be lebehnshol. LHO raised to 3♥ and this was passed back to me.

Now I have a choice, I can bid 3♠ or I can double again. I don't mind doubling again, because if partner has 2 or 3 ♥ we may be beating this two tricks from my own hand. I think playing meta overcalls this second double is still looking for 3NT but MUST be willing to withstand a penalty pass, as direct seat double of 3♥ by partner would have been for takout here.

Now 3♥X is likely down three, as I am going to open with the ♥J and declarer is going to have to guess well to drop my ♥Q. 3NT on this hand, after the 2♥ opening bid has no chance... although the ♥ suit is blocked, EAST has ♠ entry and will be able to signal strongly for a ♠ return on third round of ♥. So the defense can take the first 6 tricks.

Yet when I doubled 3♥, I ended up in a hopeless 6♣ and the best I could have done was a hopeless 5♣ because partner leaped to 4NT for me to pick between my minor. I had visions of heart shorntness opposite this bid, and bid 6 instead of 5. Neither would be good contract.

The confusion here is that the first seat double is most often showing a minor suited hand (2NT would be huge underbid), so the question becomes what should the second double show? I think 3NT immediate would have been balanced hand with stopper (like you suggested), we do play first double can be balanced hand (but not ♠-minor two suiter), without a stopper. So I think the second double must/should show this type hand, and a 3♠ or 3NT bid show something else. Clear Meta overcalls are still a work in progress, the only trouble we have had so far is against 2 level weak bids with hands that often are not a problem otherwise.

Ben

[Trpltrbl]

On Ben's hand, you are kinda stuck but I would X again. And hoping pd has singl H ,♠ Ace and K of ♣ is really too much. He probably would have X-ed 3♥. Still you would have been in 5 ♣ down 1. Well guess what, something these preempts just work, no matter what you do. Next hand.....

Mike

[the hog]

This one is awkward. I'd X, as I don't have a H stopper - I think - and I'd X again. Bit hard for Misho as he is not on lead. If I were on lead, I'd pass with his hand. Given my agreements with current partner, I'd bid 4D on the Nth hand; maybe 4N playing Imps. (A 4D contract is also no thing of beauty on H, H & H).

Tough hand; they'll get you sometimes.

[mishovnbg]

....................................................Hi Ben!........................................................
..."I was thinking that a double here however might be quite unbalanced, say with a source of tricks in one on the minors and absolutely no ♥ stopper..."
...Yes, with meta dbl you can hold: bal/sbal/1 minor/2 minors. But in all cases your message to partner is: "I am willing to play NT contract or if it is not possible, then minor". With hand like: ♠QTx ♥void ♦AKJTxxx ♣AQx your normal bid is 5♦. If you got both minors with S/V in opps suit, then 4NT is available. Rebid of major after meta dbl show enough strength bal/sbal distribution for sure. Rebid of minor is not clear, but NF too. Rebid of NT show bal/sbal hand too strong for direct nat NT bid. Cue bid as rebid is only forcing bid, probably with both minors, because jump rebid of suit is available, but also probably not short in opps suit. Cheapest rebid in suit is scrambling: strong NT range, can't play in p suit. Raise of p suit is 4 card support with strong NT range. For now this is is most suitable scheme, thanks to Ben for experience I earned because of him.
...About hand from "Expert thinking" I think is normal to reach there 5 of minor down 1 at IMP, 6♣ is just not reasonable Ben, sorry. I can also pass your second dbl, which will be top contract, knoledge about second meta dbl can help me, because you are not short in♥, sorry inertia of thinking after normal, not meta dbl .
..."And oh, BTW, I assume meta/bid is off in the balancing seat... is that right?"
...I think no Ben, because from balancing position you still need meta if not passed hand. Say (3♠)-p-(p)-? You have near 8 tricks for NT but without stop, what you will bid? It is even better position for meta, because your finesses will probably win.
...........................................................................................Misho

[inquiry]

mishovnbg, on Feb 23 2004, 10:33 PM, said:

..............
..."And oh, BTW, I assume meta/bid is off in the balancing seat... is that right?"
...I think no Ben, because from balancing position you still need meta if not passed hand. Say (3♠)-p-(p)-? You have near 8 tricks for NT but without stop, what you will bid? It is even better position for meta, because your finesses will probably win.
...........................................................................................Misho

Yes I was "hoping" you could find a pass of the second double. I told the kibitizers that I "expected" you to bid (because I figured you woudl be too weak to pass), but that if you did pass that would be great with me. I agree that pass of the second double with your hand is right... my 6♣ was overly "inspired"... lol.. sometimes I go crazy.

Ok... the only reason I asked about the balanced position is the following auction we had recently...

(2♠)-P-(P)-2NT
All pass

We missed 3NT because I was "too strong" for balancing 2NT..but I thought my bid showed a ♠ stopper and presumably a possible minor one suiter. So the question is does a balancing 1NT playing meta show the minor one suiter (probably) or the balanced hand. If I could have had a fairly good hand with ♠ stopper then pass with scattered stuff can't be right. This is a problem for me right now to understand the best approach here.

Ben

[mishovnbg]

Spoiler

---------------------------------Hi Ben!

Spoiler

---

It's impossible to bid all hands without intervention, what to say about (2♠)-P-(P)-?. The bidding must be oriented here to the most often bidable zone of hcp. Your possible bids with different zones and stop, where hcp can be less if side minor suit as source of tricks exist.
(11)12-14(15): 2NT
(15)16-18(19): X, rebid pass/scrambling after negative or raise/3NT after positive response
(19)20-22(23): 3NT
23+hcp: X, rebid cue bid

If you don't have stop, then things are even worse... If you have minor overcall, you can still escape on P/C, but with weak NT range you are sure in swamp and can play minor contract on 4-2 fit, by the way after normal take out and lebensohl too. It is possible to play lebensohl/rubenshol/Solle's mini cue bid/rev Lebensohl here or on any our 2 level dbl, even with more suscsess, because doubler normally don't have stop and suit contract will be probably better. The slight difference over leb is except 3♣, 3♦ rebid is also possible with real ♦ suit.

Spoiler

------------------------------------------------------------------------Misho