BBO Discussion Forums: probe or blast - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

probe or blast a most unusual auction

Poll: monkey see, monkey? (48 member(s) have cast votes)

monkey see, monkey?

  1. Blast 3N either way (24 votes [50.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  2. Check for spades either way (8 votes [16.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 16.67%

  3. Blast 3N playing standard, but bid 3H with these methods (16 votes [33.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#21 User is offline   karlson 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 974
  • Joined: 2005-April-06

Posted 2007-December-12, 17:33

pclayton, on Dec 12 2007, 12:32 PM, said:

If I read this table right, it says that NT will only take more tricks than spades about 1 out of 20 times? That seems incredible to me.

This is given that you have a spade fit (the hands that matter), so yeah, does it really seem so weird?
0

#22 User is offline   MFA 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,625
  • Joined: 2006-October-04
  • Location:Denmark

Posted 2007-December-12, 20:30

3NT.
The extra strength does it for me.

I'm confident that Karlson's analysis would have had a different result, had it been single dummy analysis.
Let them lead, for instance. They will be striving to pick a major.
Michael Askgaard
0

#23 User is offline   whereagles 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 14,900
  • Joined: 2004-May-11
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Portugal
  • Interests:Everything!

Posted 2007-December-13, 03:14

pclayton, on Dec 12 2007, 08:32 PM, said:

If I read this table right, it says that NT will only take more tricks than spades about 1 out of 20 times? That seems incredible to me.

yeah, but in NT you need 1 trick less :(
0

#24 User is offline   Codo 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,373
  • Joined: 2003-March-15
  • Location:Hamburg, Germany
  • Interests:games and sports, esp. bridge,chess and (beach-)volleyball

Posted 2007-December-13, 04:53

karlson, on Dec 13 2007, 05:13 AM, said:

That's 55.3% of hands on which spades plays at least 1 trick better than NT. A ballpark estimate of the standard error is (.5)(.5)(sqrt(1/1000)) which is about 0.8%. So this is a very significant difference if you believe the setup.

If I get your table right, you say:
If you have a spade fit you score better in 55 % of the cases but worse in 45 %.

Maybe you should make a second table without a spade fit. How often will the defending side lead significant weaker because you did not tell them about your hand and pds hand?

I would prefer some single dummy data for both cases.
Kind Regards

Roland


Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
0

#25 User is offline   pclayton 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,151
  • Joined: 2003-June-11
  • Location:Southern California

Posted 2007-December-13, 09:56

jdonn, on Dec 12 2007, 12:45 PM, said:

pclayton, on Dec 12 2007, 03:32 PM, said:

If I read this table right, it says that NT will only take more tricks than spades about 1 out of 20 times? That seems incredible to me.

That seems normal to me, double dummy. The main gains from notrump come from opponents doing the wrong thing. This happens much more against notrump since it can happen in many more ways, two examples being they lead a spade from Jxxx into partner's ten, or they lead low from something headed by the KQ and let a random jack score, neither of which will happen against 4. Still this confirms what I already believed. You simply want to play in spades when you have a spade fit opposite this hand.

Well with this much strength, we can survive a bad spade break for instance and rely on other tricks. Maybe 20:1 is normal though after I think about on a DD basis, but it certainly isn't in those cases when they lead a spade. It doesn't have to just blow a trick into pard's 10x to work, it can also blow a necessary tempo.
"Phil" on BBO
0

#26 User is offline   pclayton 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,151
  • Joined: 2003-June-11
  • Location:Southern California

Posted 2007-December-13, 09:57

whereagles, on Dec 13 2007, 01:14 AM, said:

pclayton, on Dec 12 2007, 08:32 PM, said:

If I read this table right, it says that NT will only take more tricks than spades about 1 out of 20 times? That seems incredible to me.

yeah, but in NT you need 1 trick less :rolleyes:

Obv <_<
"Phil" on BBO
0

#27 User is offline   ArtK78 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 7,786
  • Joined: 2004-September-05
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Galloway NJ USA
  • Interests:Bridge, Poker, participatory and spectator sports.
    Occupation - Tax Attorney in Atlantic City, NJ.

Posted 2007-December-13, 09:58

That is not true. The scoring is match points. So you need to take the same number of tricks in notrump to succeed against those in spades.
0

#28 User is offline   whereagles 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 14,900
  • Joined: 2004-May-11
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Portugal
  • Interests:Everything!

Posted 2007-December-13, 10:24

well, there's a mix-up here. don't worry. rage on :rolleyes:
0

#29 User is offline   jdonn 

  • - - T98765432 AQT8
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 15,085
  • Joined: 2005-June-23
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Las Vegas, NV

Posted 2007-December-13, 10:52

Codo, on Dec 13 2007, 05:53 AM, said:

karlson, on Dec 13 2007, 05:13 AM, said:

That's 55.3% of hands on which spades plays at least 1 trick better than NT. A ballpark estimate of the standard error is (.5)(.5)(sqrt(1/1000)) which is about 0.8%. So this is a very significant difference if you believe the setup.

If I get your table right, you say:
If you have a spade fit you score better in 55 % of the cases but worse in 45 %.

You misread the table. He is saying when you have a spade fit, spades makes more tricks than notrump 55% of the time. But notrump makes more tricks than spades only 3% of the time, and they are the same 42% of the time.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
0

#30 User is offline   benlessard 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 3,465
  • Joined: 2006-January-07
  • Location:Montreal Canada
  • Interests:All games. i really mean all of them.

Posted 2007-December-13, 11:54

Im sure that is a close call. Good declarer vs bad defenses is more likely to be able to steal a trick in Nt then in 4S. So against a weaker field the temptation to go for Nt is higher. Defender will sometimes blow a trick on lead or unable to avoid some endplay. Often the hand is in S always make 5 but in nt you have to do some work to make 5.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
0

#31 User is offline   han 

  • Under bidder
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 11,797
  • Joined: 2004-July-25
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Amsterdam, the Netherlands

Posted 2007-December-13, 12:56

Seems clear to use the gadget.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
0

#32 User is offline   Codo 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,373
  • Joined: 2003-March-15
  • Location:Hamburg, Germany
  • Interests:games and sports, esp. bridge,chess and (beach-)volleyball

Posted 2007-December-14, 01:45

jdonn, on Dec 14 2007, 01:52 AM, said:

Codo, on Dec 13 2007, 05:53 AM, said:

karlson, on Dec 13 2007, 05:13 AM, said:

That's 55.3% of hands on which spades plays at least 1 trick better than NT. A ballpark estimate of the standard error is (.5)(.5)(sqrt(1/1000)) which is about 0.8%. So this is a very significant difference if you believe the setup.

If I get your table right, you say:
If you have a spade fit you score better in 55 % of the cases but worse in 45 %.

You misread the table. He is saying when you have a spade fit, spades makes more tricks than notrump 55% of the time. But notrump makes more tricks than spades only 3% of the time, and they are the same 42% of the time.

If I make the same number of tricks, NT scores significant better at mps.
So 55:45 is still correct.
Kind Regards

Roland


Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
0

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users