[kenrexford]

I would never want to play 1NT because I hate when I have to decide between hooking the second time and finding out that RHO ducked the first time (net of one trick for me, that bastard!) or rising and taking two instead of four tricks. I hate that, so I bid and take away that problem. LOL

[whereagles]

gwnn, on Dec 10 2007, 02:03 PM, said:

The general principle of "wisdom of the crowds" does not necessarily apply here.

Indeed. The prime counter-example is, however, the majority of people voting for Bush.

[hrothgar]

whereagles, on Dec 10 2007, 11:10 PM, said:

gwnn, on Dec 10 2007, 02:03 PM, said:

The general principle of "wisdom of the crowds" does not necessarily apply here.

Indeed. The prime counter-example is, however, the majority of people voting for Bush.

The "Wisdom of Crowds" only works if individuals are making independent decisions.

If you start correlating the behaviour of large numbers of decision makers the system breaks down.

The US election system isn't necessarily a rejection of the basic concept. Rather, the necessary conditions for success aren't present.

[Fluffy]

2♠ is 100% clear at any form of scoring.

[ArtK78]

Fluffy, on Dec 11 2007, 10:11 AM, said:

2♠ is 100% clear at any form of scoring.

There is only one thing that is 100% clear - that neither passing nor bidding 2♠ is 100% clear.

On a given hand, either could be the winning action.

If the spade suit were QJT9x or even KQT9x, then 2♠ would be 100% clear at any form of scoring. These are suits which will produce several tricks if the suit is trump but may take zero or one trick if played in notrump.

If you had 6 spades, then 2♠ would be 100% clear (although not necessarily the winning call).

Suits like the one in the given hand - AQT76 - are a problem. This suit will always produce one or two winners in notrump, but it is far from clear how many winners the suit will produce if played as the trump suit. Ignoring the possibility that partner has a small singleton spade, the suit may produce unavoidable losers if it is the trump suit which do not exist if the hand is played in notrump.

In my regular partnership, we freely raise 1♠ to 2♠ on any reasonable three card spade holding if the hand is not 4333. So I am not too worried about missing a 5-3 spade fit. On the other hand, we will often rebid 1NT with a singleton spade when the rebid is not appetizing (1345, for example) (and for those of you who would open 1♦ on that distribution, assume that you have much better clubs than diamonds).

The suit quality is right on the cusp of whether to bid 2♠ or pass 1NT - and that is reflected in the voting on this problem - 50-50.

I tend to pass on the given hand, but I will say that it is close.

[whereagles]

ArtK, the issue has been statistically studied a long time ago. 2♠ is the percentage bid, even if you rebid NT with a spade singleton on a regular basis.

[jtfanclub]

whereagles, on Dec 11 2007, 11:45 AM, said:

ArtK, the issue has been statistically studied a long time ago. 2♠ is the percentage bid, even if you rebid NT with a spade singleton on a regular basis.

Did they study what happens even when the opponents aren't barred from the bidding?

[whereagles]

No. I mean.. I don't think so.

[han]

ArtK78, on Dec 11 2007, 10:51 AM, said:

Fluffy, on Dec 11 2007, 10:11 AM, said:

2♠ is 100% clear at any form of scoring.

There is only one thing that is 100% clear - that neither passing nor bidding 2♠ is 100% clear.

On a given hand, either could be the winning action.

You are cofusing "clearly the best bid" with "clearly the bid that is better on every hand". The latter rarely exists in bridge and the former usually does.

[awm]

The only study I recall about this was more attuned to the auction 1♠-1NT. The question was:

Given that opener has some 5(332) pattern, is it usually better to play 1NT here or to play 2♠?

I believe the assumptions were made that responder has a balanced or semi-balanced hand with exactly two spades, and that play and defense would proceed in a double-dummy manner. The result was that 2♠ was slightly better, not significantly so. This was used as a justification for the "forcing 1NT response," countering objections that you would lose substantially when both opener and responder are balanced and you can no longer play 1NT. Note that this study has nothing to do with the auction in question for this thread.

The reality here will depend upon many factors including:

(1) How good is the spade suit?
(2) What are the entry situations like between the two hands?
(3) Does the balanced hand include a good 5-card minor that could create tricks in notrump?
(4) Which contract is more likely to be misdefended?
(5) How likely is partner to have singleton spade and what will happen in that situation?

I very much doubt there is any study out there which postulates this exact hand for responder and tells you what the percentage action is. It's very easy to look at a flawed study designed for one purpose and try to apply it to a totally different purpose, and then get answers which aren't necessarily correct.

For the various points, I would comment that:

(1) The spade suit is okay, but will generate a lot of losers in a spade contract opposite doubleton. Something like QJT9x is much better for this purpose than AQT7x.
(2) The entries are not great, but the spade ace does help substantially. We may have two entries in notrump.
(3) Since I usually open 1♦ with 4-4 in the minors and will rebid 1NT with 1(34)5, the odds of a five-three club fit just went up. Opener could be 3334 (1NT often better in this case) or 2434, but all other patterns seem to include five clubs.
(4) 1NT is among the hardest contracts to defend. We also get the lead up to the strong hand and conceal most of our high cards.
(5) Since I routinely rebid 1NT with 1(34)5 patterns in range and raise with 3♠ and a doubleton, the singleton spade is actually fairly likely (I think it's about one in three).

[nick_s]

jdonn wrote that 2♠ rates to be better opposite a singleton spade.

Interesting comment that. Something I hadn't considered as being desirable before.

And this got me thinking about my minor suit holdings. If pard has a stiff spade, then he rates to have a 5-card club suit. I think bidding 2♠ would be more attractive if my doubleton was in clubs rather than diamonds - then I'd have a better chance of making my small trumps separately.

[han]

While I disagree with jdonn's claim that we'd want to be in 2S opposite a singleton, I think 2S rates to be better more often than 1NT.

[mike777]

Wow one never knows which of these simple looking forum OP will turn into something surprising. Really makes these forums great for players at my lower level, I really learn alot. ty posters.

19-19 votes for what I thought was a clear 2s wtp.

[lilboyman]

Question: If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call?

[lilboyman]

lilboyman, on Dec 12 2007, 04:15 PM, said:

Question:  If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call?

I should add 'if partner holds 3 Spades'

[1eyedjack]

Can't someone run some sort of a bridgebrowser study to settle this issue?

Anyway, one possible argument for passing is that you have not yet been doubled for blood. If there is a spade stack sitting over you he could just be waiting in the wings. Not saying that it tips the balance, but just thought it hadn't yet been mentioned as a factor.

[neilkaz]

1eyedjack, on Dec 12 2007, 04:53 PM, said:

Can't someone run some sort of a bridgebrowser study to settle this issue?

Anyway, one possible argument for passing is that you have not yet been doubled for blood. If there is a spade stack sitting over you he could just be waiting in the wings. Not saying that it tips the balance, but just thought it hadn't yet been mentioned as a factor.

I have Dealmaster Pro coming in the mail and will see if it can help here.

I won't reply as to my thoughts or what happened at the table for a day or two more as poll results come in.

[whereagles]

lilboyman, on Dec 12 2007, 09:15 PM, said:

Question: If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call?

No call in bridge is an absolute sign-off. Usually, 2♠ shows 5+ cards and 5-10 hcp. Opener can compete to 3♠ if he thinks his hand and the situation are appropriate.

[joker_gib]

2♠ always for me

[lilboyman]

whereagles, on Dec 13 2007, 04:08 AM, said:

lilboyman, on Dec 12 2007, 09:15 PM, said:

Question:  If, after 2S as an absolute sign-of, opponents now compete, can/will partner compete to 3S expecting 6 Spades for the 2S call?

No call in bridge is an absolute sign-off. Usually, 2♠ shows 5+ cards and 5-10 hcp. Opener can compete to 3♠ if he thinks his hand and the situation are appropriate.

Since poster indicated 2 Spades was a 100% sign-off, I was interested if poster's partner is allowed to compete over 3 Hearts.