[david_c]

Scoring: MP

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RHO deals and opens 3♠, you pass, LHO bids 4♠, passed back to you.
Note: this is MP pairs, and you are at favourable vul.

Do you agree with the first pass? Would you act over 4♠ now?

This post has been edited by david_c: 2007-December-03, 10:05

[benlessard]

clear pass i dont see how im going to make 8 tricks.

[helene_t]

5♦, I think that's the lawfull bid.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

the first pass is clear, and I would pass
the 2nd time as well, but this may be wrong,
... and I may not be surprised, if it would be the
winning call.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[mike777]

5D...looks like 19 tricks, ten spades and 9 D ?

[Apollo81]

I'd pass. Bids like this 5♦ may work occasionally, but there's also a pretty good chance you're giving them a "fielder's choice" of 650 or (X)X00. There are other ways to get a good MP score besides a wild gamble in the bidding.

[whereagles]

i hate these problems... agree that I should pass 1st round.. now it's a guess. pass or bid depending on how good/bad i'm doing at the event

[pclayton]

MPs? Bidding 5♦ looks pretty easy to me.

Obviously I pass the 1st round.

[jdonn]

I would never bid here. The diamonds are not nearly solid enough and anyway why can't they just be down? I mean if diamonds are stacked on our left (and we certainly don't expect them on our right) our hand might be worth 4-5 tricks only. It is just a wild shot in the dark as far as I'm concerned, though I concede obviously it will work sometimes.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Dec 3 2007, 05:38 PM, said:

I would never bid here. The diamonds are not nearly solid enough and anyway why can't they just be down? I mean if diamonds are stacked on our left (and we certainly don't expect them on our right) our hand might be worth 4-5 tricks only. It is just a wild shot in the dark as far as I'm concerned, though I concede obviously it will work sometimes.

Agreed.

Now, I don't claim to be a matchpoint wizard and maybe winning at mps requires sticking one's neck out and getting lucky on hands like this.

I really, really don't understand the references to the LOTT or to them having 'x' number of spades and we having 'y' number of diamonds.

LHO is going to bid 4♠ on a host of hands, including some hands with a stiff spade.. because he has Aces and Kings and yet no source of tricks for 3N, and too few spades to be sure of running that suit in notrump. Of course, he will also be bidding when he has a spade fit... but the point is that the Law simply doesn't apply.

The Law requires that we first deduce, from the auction, the degree of fit...ideally the degree of fit both ways.

Wouldn't we all bid 4♠ with x AKJx KJ9x AKxx? What other bid is there?

And, as Josh pointed out, where does their auction tell you that they are making? Maybe they need a 2-2 or 3-2 trump break? Maybe they need the ♥K in our hand, etc.

Gamble if you want to, but don't try to invoke any 'Lawful' arguments.. for all we know the Total Tricks amount to 15

[pclayton]

mikeh, on Dec 3 2007, 02:52 PM, said:

jdonn, on Dec 3 2007, 05:38 PM, said:

I would never bid here. The diamonds are not nearly solid enough and anyway why can't they just be down? I mean if diamonds are stacked on our left (and we certainly don't expect them on our right) our hand might be worth 4-5 tricks only. It is just a wild shot in the dark as far as I'm concerned, though I concede obviously it will work sometimes.

Agreed.

Now, I don't claim to be a matchpoint wizard and maybe winning at mps requires sticking one's neck out and getting lucky on hands like this.

I really, really don't understand the references to the LOTT or to them having 'x' number of spades and we having 'y' number of diamonds.

LHO is going to bid 4♠ on a host of hands, including some hands with a stiff spade.. because he has Aces and Kings and yet no source of tricks for 3N, and too few spades to be sure of running that suit in notrump. Of course, he will also be bidding when he has a spade fit... but the point is that the Law simply doesn't apply.

The Law requires that we first deduce, from the auction, the degree of fit...ideally the degree of fit both ways.

Wouldn't we all bid 4♠ with x AKJx KJ9x AKxx? What other bid is there?

And, as Josh pointed out, where does their auction tell you that they are making? Maybe they need a 2-2 or 3-2 trump break? Maybe they need the ♥K in our hand, etc.

Gamble if you want to, but don't try to invoke any 'Lawful' arguments.. for all we know the Total Tricks amount to 15

Obviously LHO could have a diamond stack and you'll go for 4 digits NV. On a really, really bad day, pard is sitting on some trump stack that is setting 4 spades.

But how likely are either of these? More often, pard has a very vanilla 8 count that lets us out for -300 or -500. Perhaps they press on to 5♠ and it makes. Or maybe it goes down. Or maybe, 5♦ allows pard to bid 6♦ which is still a good save.

My estimation is that passing will lead to a 25-40% board and no better. How can this possibly be a plus position for us at MPs? By passing, you are praying that 5♦ turns out to be a disaster or that the field also passes which will mitigate the swings on this board.

They don't always get it right over 5♦. Both 5♠ and double could be very wrong.

[jdonn]

pclayton, on Dec 3 2007, 06:03 PM, said:

My estimation is that passing will lead to a 25-40% board and no better. How can this possibly be a plus position for us at MPs? By passing, you are praying that 5♦ turns out to be a disaster or that the field also passes which will mitigate the swings on this board.

Or that 4♠ was down. Or that we get a good score due to a good opening lead. I don't particularly agree with your dreary estimate (why should what looks like the normal auction be such a bad score?!?), and I am confident enough in my abilities to play to avoid bottoms in unclear situations.

[neilkaz]

White vs Red at MP's I somewhat prefer 5♦ to 4♠ with Phil's arguements making rather good sense to me.

At any other vul, pass. If IMPs pass even at this vul for me.

Clear pass for my first bid, off course.

I think this would be a great hand for a sim, but are the programs sophisticated enough to take into account the times the opps decide to play 5♠ ?

[mikeh]

pclayton, on Dec 3 2007, 06:03 PM, said:

My estimation is that passing will lead to a 25-40% board and no better. How can this possibly be a plus position for us at MPs? By passing, you are praying that 5♦ turns out to be a disaster or that the field also passes which will mitigate the swings on this board.

They don't always get it right over 5♦. Both 5♠ and double could be very wrong.

I (again) echo jdonn. While I am not expecting a good board via pass, I think that to expect a 25-40% board is uncalled for. There is absolutely nothing about my hand or the auction that suggest that this is not a completely flat auction to date.

If so, then I will get less than average, on defence, only if:

1) 5♦ is a good save or persuades the opps to err
2) I make a bad lead
3) I or my partner misdefend
4) Declarer, either through skill or luck, takes more tricks than the field

I like my opening leads.

My partners are usually at least average in the field in terms of defence, and if they are not, then I'm not winning the event anyway...so in that case, I'd probably take the dive because I need low-percentage actions to work

I see no reason to expect that declarer, even if a Rosenberg or a Rodwell or Versace will take more tricks than the field.

So it comes down to how often I think that 5♦ will lead to a better result.

If it will lead to a better result half the time, then I'd estimate that passing 4♠ will be roughly average. If it leads to a bad result more than half the time, passing 4♠ will be slightly over average...and the more likely I think it is that people won't avoid the temptation to bid, the higher my expectation from pass becomes.

Of course the converse is true: if 5♦ is a win more than half the time, my expectation from passing dips towards your figures.

I recognize that being overly pessimistic is one of my biggest faults at the table, and maybe that is coming through here, but I truly think that 5♦ will rate to be bad more than half the time.

BTW, most competent opps are not getting pushed to 5♠ if there is any real risk of its going set. Good opps know that taking the push is a long run losing proposition unless it is near cold. They NEVER gain by doing so (when it makes, they break even with the 4♠ players, when it fails they get a zero) while doubling offers them a chance at a top.

[pclayton]

jdonn, on Dec 3 2007, 04:31 PM, said:

pclayton, on Dec 3 2007, 06:03 PM, said:

My estimation is that passing will lead to a 25-40% board and no better. How can this possibly be a plus position for us at MPs? By passing, you are praying that 5♦ turns out to be a disaster or that the field also passes which will mitigate the swings on this board.

Or that 4♠ was down. Or that we get a good score due to a good opening lead. I don't particularly agree with your dreary estimate (why should what looks like the normal auction be such a bad score?!?), and I am confident enough in my abilities to play to avoid bottoms in unclear situations.

Because there's a few loonies like me that are bidding 5♦. More likely, there's a few that are either trying for slam with the opponent's cards or not getting to game (we can't tell which).

There doesn;t seem to be a lot of variation in the opening lead or the defense from where we sit right now.

[Apollo81]

Another in-real-life benefit to NOT bidding 5d is that when you bid and it is wrong, some partners may get annoyed/discouraged and not play to their best ability on subsequent boards. Missing a sac when it is right does not have the same psychological effect.

[Fluffy]

Obvious first pass, and I think 5♦ is the normal bid, specially at these colours.
So reopen with 5♦.

[Edmunte1]

I think that a winning strategy in a pairs tournament is not based on random tops and bottoms, at least not my strategy. There are boards where you should stay fixed and go with the room. Of course many times experts can make some 'educated guesses', percentage bids, but, to worth to go against field it should be an over 60 percent guess. I think this is not the case here, 5♦ is just a gamble, and i'll gamble only if need an antifield result.
Another point of view: if 5♦ is the field bid, you should try it. But i think that's not the case here.

[helene_t]

mikeh, on Dec 4 2007, 12:52 AM, said:

I really, really don't understand the references to the LOTT or to them having 'x' number of spades and we having 'y' number of diamonds.

LHO is going to bid 4♠ on a host of hands, including some hands with a stiff spade..

Right, that's why I said I think it's the lawful bid, not that it is the lawful bid.

If RHO has 7 spades, a priori LHO has an average 2 1/2. His raise increases that number but only slightly since he might have bid 3N with a fit, or p might have doubled with spade shortness. Then again, he might have preferred 4♠ to 3N because of lack of a diamond guard etc etc.

[FrancesHinden]

It's obviously normal to pass on the first round.
The second round is a complete guess - I disagree with those who think it's clear, either to pass or to bid.

In a long Swiss Pairs event, or a qualification event, you want to take the winning expectation action. I'm not certain what that is, but it's probably pass.

In a one-session high standard pairs event you want to win (not just to do well in) you probably need to bid here and hope it's right.

Quote

BTW, most competent opps are not getting pushed to 5♠ if there is any real risk of its going set. Good opps know that taking the push is a long run losing proposition unless it is near cold. They NEVER gain by doing so (when it makes, they break even with the 4♠ players, when it fails they get a zero) while doubling offers them a chance at a top.

For once I disagree. If bidding 5D is i) not normal in the field and ii) right on the hand, then good opponents may know, or guess, that they have been offered the choice of a near bottom for +300 or the hope of getting back to par by making 5S. It's actually more often right at pairs to take the push than it is at teams. But that is just more upside from bidding 5D when it's right. If you are going for 800, they aren't going to go off in 5S instead.