[Echognome]

I had a wonderful time playing in San Francisco and it was fun putting online personas to real faces. Also was lots of fun to play against some of the top players in the world.

I saw many interesting hands and will try to share some of them with you.

This one comes from today's Swiss teams match.

Scoring: IMP

P - P - P - 1NT
P - 2♥ - P - 2♠
P - 3♣ - Dbl - 3♦
P - 3♥ - P - 3NT
All Pass

---

Opening lead: ♣Q

Plan the play.

Hidden comments below for continuations:

Spoiler

If you duck the first trick, West will continue with the club T and East will take the A. He will then return the diamond J and if you cover West will return a heart to East's K.

If you cover the first trick, East will take the A and return a low club to your J and West's T.

[Echognome]

Gonna try to give this hand bridge CPR and bump it up in an attempt some people interested in it might give it a go.

[cherdano]

It seems clear to duck the first trick.
After the continuation you give I would just play on diamonds (Q and another). This is surely not the hand for a low spade to the Jack.

[Apollo81]

cherdano, on Dec 5 2007, 01:24 PM, said:

It seems clear to duck the first trick.
After the continuation you give I would just play on diamonds (Q and another). This is surely not the hand for a low spade to the Jack.

I'd duck the first trick, then duck a diamond after the continuation listed. This may not work as well when West started with ♦Hx, but it still gives me the added chance to play spades for 5 tricks when RHO started with ♦J109x

[cherdano]

Apollo81, on Dec 5 2007, 12:31 PM, said:

cherdano, on Dec 5 2007, 01:24 PM, said:

It seems clear to duck the first trick.
After the continuation you give I would just play on diamonds (Q and another). This is surely not the hand for a low spade to the Jack.

I'd duck the first trick, then duck a diamond after the continuation listed. This may not work as well when West started with ♦Hx, but it still gives me the added chance to play spades for 5 tricks when RHO started with ♦J109x

Hmm, you give up on JTxx or JT or J9 with RHO. This seems more likely than 16% of JT9x to me. (The diamond shift is a standout from all of these holdings, given the look of dummy.)

[Apollo81]

cherdano, on Dec 5 2007, 01:42 PM, said:

Hmm, you give up on JTxx or JT or J9 with RHO. This seems more likely than 16% of JT9x to me. (The diamond shift is a standout from all of these holdings, given the look of dummy.)

I also gain when it was Jx.

[Rebound]

What do you think about leading a low diamond after covering the J and getting in with a heart?

[Apollo81]

Rebound, on Dec 6 2007, 12:07 PM, said:

What do you think about leading a low diamond after covering the J and getting in with a heart?

Thats what we've been discussing, see my first post

[Echognome]

So I think everyone is hovering around the right answer. It's a matter of after covering the ♦J and having the ♥ come back to you. Is it better now to duck a diamond, which keeps your options open to fall back on spades if it doesn't work out. Or is it better lay down the 2nd top diamond honor in case you hit JT, or J9. I haven't thought a whole lot about ducking the first diamond entirely, but that doesn't seem right.

So I guess the question is whether the additional chances in spades more than make up for the additional chance of JT and J9. (If diamonds are 3-3 either way works.)

[Apollo81]

Echognome, on Dec 6 2007, 12:52 PM, said:

I haven't thought a whole lot about ducking the first diamond entirely, but that doesn't seem right.

I dont think anyone was suggesting this. My original post was intended to mean "After I put up the dK and get in with the hA I will continue low in diamonds rather than high"

[Echognome]

Apollo81, on Dec 6 2007, 10:57 AM, said:

Echognome, on Dec 6 2007, 12:52 PM, said:

I haven't thought a whole lot about ducking the first diamond entirely, but that doesn't seem right.

I dont think anyone was suggesting this. My original post was intended to mean "After I put up the dK and get in with the hA I will continue low in diamonds rather than high"

This was exactly the suggestion by one of my teammates that is a very good player. I'm not really sure what's best, but this certainly seems the most flexible option.

[cherdano]

Apollo81, on Dec 5 2007, 12:55 PM, said:

cherdano, on Dec 5 2007, 01:42 PM, said:

Hmm, you give up on JTxx or JT or J9 with RHO. This seems more likely than 16% of JT9x to me. (The diamond shift is a standout from all of these holdings, given the look of dummy.)

I also gain when it was Jx.

Sorry I forgot about that. Anyway, you gain in 18% of Jx or JT9x, or 18% of 6 holdings. I gain in the case of JTxx or JT or J9, or altogether 100% of 8 holdings. It doesn't seem close.

Unless I am still overlooking something silly, this seems a typical example of the "overevaluating combination lines" mistake. (Your line seems intuitively right, but is just wrong on the actual odds.)

[Apollo81]

cherdano, on Dec 7 2007, 01:23 AM, said:

Sorry I forgot about that. Anyway, you gain in 18% of Jx or JT9x, or 18% of 6 holdings. I gain in the case of JTxx or JT or J9, or altogether 100% of 8 holdings. It doesn't seem close.

100% of 5 holdings. There are only 3 ways for RHO to hold JTxx.

Also RHO would not always lead the J from J10xx, which makes J109x more likely. Taking into account the club story as well I actually think RHO will have led from JT or J9 twice as often as he will have led from JTxx.

I'm not really trying to argue that ducking is the "right" play, I'm just trying to show you that its closer than you think.