[Free]

You hold the following hand:

Scoring: IMP

---

RHO starts the auction:
1♠ - pass - 2♥ - 4♦
4♥ - 5♦ - 6♥ - pass
pass - ?

Do you sacrifice or not?

If hesitations matter (hidden):

Spoiler

Your partner thought a while before bidding 4♦, and there was a little pause before the 6♥ bid

[helene_t]

Why on Earth would I expect 6♥ to make?

[cjames]

Nope

[mr1303]

Is this a lead problem?

[skjaeran]

This entirely depends upon what kind of opponents I'm playing against.

vs competent opps I'd be 90+% sure they're making 6♥, and would save without a doubt. There's no reason to except any defensive trick from partner on this auction. One opponent surely is void in diamonds.

Playing against not so strong opponents this is another matter. I'd be more reluctant to save then. But it still looks like a making slam to me.

[benlessard]

Why bid 5D ? 2 strategies i suggest you.

1 You bid 6 directly wich clearly suggest taking a further sac. Partner will X with 1 and pass with 0 or 2. If the X come back to you you pass with 1 and take the sac with 0. If partner pass then you pass with 2 and X with 0 or 1. After your double partner will pass with 2 and sac with 0. By bidding 6D you suggest to your partner that his AD is not cashing. This should get you fairly good result.


2 You pass. If the slam bidding of your opponenent is convincing you take the sac.

This is a paradox. Your 7D is purely bid based on the expectation that the opps make their slam. So why not let them more room for their slam bidding, the more accurate they get the better its for you.


3 If you dont play the 1st method. you still can bid 6D directly in the hope they make a mistake. (bidding 6 when 6 isnt there or not bidding 6 when 6 is there).
Taking the sac after the direct 6D is inconsequent with the previous action since youre not getting profit for their possible mistake.


IMHO bidding 5D is lame.

[foo]

Trust GOP. They are supposed to have at least something like AQJxxxx in ♦'s and a side stiff or void for their 4D Jump Overcall.

This means either one or both of EW are void in ♦'s, and 6H rates to make.

♠xxx ♥Ax ♦KTxxx ♣xxx
has 7 losers given that you are not losing any ♦'s

If GOP can cover 2 of them, you are -5 in 7DX.
Since we are White vs Red, 7DX -5 is -1100, vs 6H making for -1430 for Us.
Even if GOP can only cover 1 of your losers, you are only -1400 in 7DX.

Bid 7D in tempo.
If CHO does not have their 4D bid, you discuss it civilly at the break.

I also agree with the post that said bidding only 5D was too conservative.
You should have had all of the above thoughts on the previous round and bid 6D or 7D at your 1st opportunity.

[Halo]

No sacrifice.

Hope we have a second trick outside diamonds.

[1eyedjack]

I voted no sac, but I am having second thoughts.

If partner has something like ♦AQ to seven and bust, then they are making 6H and you are going for 1100 in 7D (maybe 800 if there is a dummy reversal in a black suit, but I would not bank on that). So you reckon to gain 8 IMPs compared with their 1430.

On the other hand if it is a phantom, then let us say you make one more trick in 7D, so you are going for -800 instead of taking +100 against a par of 650. So you were about to gain 13 IMPs and instead lose 4 IMPs against par, an overall chuck of 17 IMPs, roughly double the potential gain.

So if you think that there is a 1/3 or better chance of beating 6H then you are better off defending. If you factor in the possibility of partner having an 8th Diamond or otherwise only going for 800 in a case that does not add to your defensive prospects, then the break-even probability goes up a bit, but it is still below 50%. Opposite a disciplined partner whose 4D bid can be relied upon within close tollerances you may be able to bid 7 more confidently. Opposite my partner I would confidently expect 6H to make, so I probably should be bidding 7.

I think that partner's hesitant 4D bid suggests that he does not have a middle-of-the-road hand for the bid. As the justification for bidding 7D relies on his having a middle-of-the-road 4D bid I suppose that the hesitation suggests passing. Being UI I suppose I am obliged to bid 7D, but I would be open to dissenting opinions on that.

[foo]

The hesitation was before the =6H= bid, not by GOP.

We are allowed to take inferences from the opponents.

OTOH, in this case IMHO there is no need to. Trust GOP to have their bid and use logic accordingly.

[1eyedjack]

foo, on Nov 25 2007, 04:45 PM, said:

The hesitation was before the =6H= bid, not by GOP.

What part of

Quote

Your partner thought a while before bidding 4♦

leads you to the conclusion that partner bid in tempo?

[whereagles]

benlessard, on Nov 24 2007, 04:19 PM, said:

IMHO bidding 5D is lame.

That's only, and not more than, your opinion. Which, besides, is quite debateable.

[gwnn]

7 over 6 @ imps with a balanced hand and the ace of trumps? maybe next time

[neilkaz]

whereagles, on Nov 25 2007, 01:50 PM, said:

benlessard, on Nov 24 2007, 04:19 PM, said:

IMHO bidding 5D is lame.

That's only, and not more than, your opinion. Which, besides, is quite debateable.

5♦ shows a fit, which is what I have and sometimes the opps stop in 5♥ afterwards.

I'll pass 6♥ in hopes (likely vain hopes) that the opps have a loser in a black suit and note that with my 33 in blacks, I don't expect my hand to ruff anything and if PD has only 7♦ we may be -5 or -1100 in 7♦x so we save only 330 if they make vs a disaster if they get set, in which case -800 is far worse than +100.

[whereagles]

neilkaz, your odds actually make a case for sacrificing

Still, the main hint is LHO hesitating... 6♥ might be more of a lucky shot. However, if 4♦ is a pure pree, the sacrifice is good. I guess it kinda depends on pard's style.

[beatrix45]

<_<7♦. I think you have to sac at IMPs at this vul. You might have bid more diamonds earlier. By passing, you are betting everything on setting 6♥. Indeed, once in a while, the 7♦ save may go for less than the game. Besides, they may bid 7♥.

I don't see that the various hesitations mean anything significant. These are difficult hands, and they take some time to try to figure out. Try to win at the table, not in the committee.

[Free]

My partner sacrificed while I was ready to lead my singleton ♣ (in my mind ofcourse)... 6♥ could be defeated (tnx to the ♥A), 6♠ on the other hand was undefeatable. At the other table they scored 1430, so we still won some imps.

[1eyedjack]

Yay, partner being on lead is a significant plus point for passing.

[foo]

1eyedjack, on Nov 25 2007, 10:52 AM, said:

foo, on Nov 25 2007, 04:45 PM, said:

The hesitation was before the =6H= bid, not by GOP.

What part of

Quote

Your partner thought a while before bidding 4♦

leads you to the conclusion that partner bid in tempo?

The OP's hidden comment was

"little pause before the 6♥ bid"

No comment was made about the tempo of the 4♦ bid.

[benlessard]

just out of curiosity 7D X was down how many ?