skaeran, on Nov 24 2007, 06:18 AM, said:
This entirely depends upon what kind of opponents I'm playing against.
vs competent opps I'd be 90+% sure they're making 6♥, and would save without a doubt. There's no reason to except any defensive trick from partner on this auction. One opponent surely is void in diamonds.
Playing against not so strong opponents this is another matter. I'd be more reluctant to save then. But it still looks like a making slam to me.
At even odds, I would also bet that 6
♥ is making. However, given that I am likely down 5 (since I have 5 diamonds, partner is very unlikely to have 8 diamonds, so I expect we take 7 trump tricks plus the ace of hearts), 7
♦ costs 1100. So sacrificing gains 8 IMPs when it is right but costs 15 IMPs when it is wrong. Of course your odds are a little better because sometimes opponents bid 7
♥ and sometimes partner is 7-4, but I still don't like them (especially against opponents who sometimes bid 6
♥ since it might make or we might bid on...)
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke