[andy_h]

Scoring: IMP

---

Auction is:
P - 1♦ - 1♠ - 2NT
P - 3NT - All Pass.

Everything Natural.

The play:

♠3 - 2 - K - A (Lead is 4th, or low from Hxx)
♦T - ♥2 - 2 - Q (♥2 = Odd/Even, enc ♣s)
♠T - J - Q - ♥3
♠7 - ♣5 - 9 - 8
♠4 - Declarer claims.

Who's at fault here?
Given that there may be some inferences on:
- Declarer winning first spade
- E winning first diamond
- Declarer covering ♠T

[ArtK78]

Both are at fault, but most of the blame goes to East.

East may be able to work out that his partner has at most Qxx of spades from the ♥2 discard. With Qxxx of spades, West would be more likely to encourage a spade continuation.

West should be able to work out that South must have at least 3 and probably 4 spades. In that case, the cover of the spade 10 is a clear givaway that declarer has spades stopped.

East has the same inference available to him when South covers the ♠10. East should switch to clubs. East also knows that South would play the ♠8 with a remaining holding of 86, so the appearance of that card, along with the rest of the play, should not cause East to continue spades.

I will say that West could have made the club situation clearer by pitching the ♣3 instead of the ♥2. The ♥2 says that he does not like hearts and he prefers clubs to spades. But the ♣3 says he LIKES clubs. The cost of an extra undertrick is a small price to pay for getting your message across.

[jdonn]

My instinct is that east is at fault, since look what he thinks west didn't raise with. I would even have raised with west's actual hand, but it's all the more difficult to imagine west not raising on a similar hand with four spades, given the diamond void and values proven from the auction. Combined with the discard saying west likes clubs, and I blame east.

So often these problems can be worked out by thinking back to the auction. You can defend well most of the time without any signals at all.

[Halo]

I think the heart discard is the key for East. The two of hearts seems to rule out South holding club KQ instead of the heart Ace and club Jack. East knows South has the eight of spades, so the Ace of hearts in South is his ninth trick and the club lead essential.

[jdonn]

It's funny 4 people found essentially 4 different reasons they think east is to blame. I still think the bidding one is biggest, how could east play west to pass with Qxxx of spades, a diamond void, and about another 6 points after east overcalled 1♠?

[ArtK78]

Jlall, on Oct 31 2007, 09:56 PM, said:

East knows 100 % what the spades are, his partner played Q then 7, and declarer played the 8. With Q763 he would win the queen and lead back the 3, not to mention he would have bid with a void and 4 spades, so east really made a nullo play.

It is hard to lead back the 3 when the opening lead was the 3.

[skjaeran]

It looks like Justin thinks east made the opening lead when in fact west mead the opening lead of the ♠3...

Whatsoever there's more than one way for east to get this one right; the easiest one by far is to consider the meaning of west's non-raise. Surely west can't have 4-card support here. So I'm with Josh on this one.

[andy_h]

I guess what I'd like to see is if W or E knows it's safe to lead a club. I understand that with a D void and 4spades, E would know W would've raised.

This might be a bit paranoid, but I'd like to hear what you guys have to say:

When E returns ST, would that tell W that E is more interested in spades or that E didn't really have anything else appealing? If E has like xx or xxx in clubs, should W know E would be a bit likely to switch to that, or that given E didn't switch to clubs, W should know E has the CA?

Since E can count declarer's 5D+2S tricks (most likely) does E know to switch to a small spade if W had Jxx originally?

When W wins SQ, is it possible for declarer to have CAJ and now has to return a heart or should he just go along with another spade? If W does returns his last spade and E winning, now E can be sure of declarer's 7top tricks. Is it very likely for South to hold HA (or W can still have that card with 6clubs to the JT and now E can passively exit a spade? maybe W would've played a middle club if W had JT to 6..)

Or when E was in with DQ, and thinks W might've started life with SJxx and if that's the case, and declarer has SAQ and HA, then E can't continue spades but must play a club now.

ok i'm getting kind of confused with these if assumptions.