[goobers]

Favorable, 2nd seat

Axx Qxx x AQTxxx

(1H) - 2C - (2S) - 3C
(4S) - ?

It's imps and your opponents are weak, if it matters.

[skjaeran]

I've got a fairly normal hand for my overcall.
We won't make 5♣.
I don't know if opps can make 4♠, but there's a reasoanble chance for us to set them.
Easy pass for me.

[Quantumcat]

The opener could have bid 4C if he had a really good hand, right? I wouldn't bid further. But then again if the other opponent has a strong hand, 5C could get in the way of his blackwood bid and he might have to bash six without checking for aces? And if he does I think I can see a good defence. Lead the singleton, when in with the ace of trumps, underlead the club so partner can give you a ruff, down 2. Maybe I would bid 5C if my partner tends to support with support whether he has a hand or not, and pass if partner usually has something decent behind his bid (the points are probably about even then).

[pclayton]

No way I dive with this at IMPs. I have an easy lead, trump control, and its not tough to see how we might come to 4 tricks.

[han]

Pass.

[jdonn]

I don't think saccing is THAT crazy vs weak opponents. This is because they are more likely to be sound for the 4♠ bid, whereas a stronger player will make it on a very wide variety of hands to try and push me into a save. Also weak players bid 5 over 5 more often. Still I wouldn't do it, but I think it's close.

Another thing to consider, on a really good day 5♣ makes. x KJxx xxxxx Kxx?

[cherdano]

jdonn, on Sep 29 2007, 11:39 AM, said:

Another thing to consider, on a really good day 5♣ makes. x KJxx xxxxx Kxx?

Maybe 5♣ is odds on to make on other hands, but on this one you need hearts splitting 6-0 and LHO not finding the diamond lead.

[P_Marlowe]

Pass, there are days, we will beat it.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[jdonn]

cherdano, on Sep 29 2007, 02:32 PM, said:

jdonn, on Sep 29 2007, 11:39 AM, said:

Another thing to consider, on a really good day 5♣ makes. x KJxx xxxxx Kxx?

Maybe 5♣ is odds on to make on other hands, but on this one you need hearts splitting 6-0 and LHO not finding the diamond lead.

Uh....lose 1 heart and 1 diamond. Yes they could get a heart ruff and there might be problems on a trump lead, but none of that is really my point. Did you think this was 6♣?

[cherdano]

jdonn, on Sep 29 2007, 04:12 PM, said:

cherdano, on Sep 29 2007, 02:32 PM, said:

jdonn, on Sep 29 2007, 11:39 AM, said:

Another thing to consider, on a really good day 5♣ makes. x KJxx xxxxx Kxx?

Maybe 5♣ is odds on to make on other hands, but on this one you need hearts splitting 6-0 and LHO not finding the diamond lead.

Uh....lose 1 heart and 1 diamond. Yes they could get a heart ruff and there might be problems on a trump lead, but none of that is really my point. Did you think this was 6♣?

My point was that LHO is always going to lead his singleton in partner's suit, and with a void he will try everything to get partner in. Even when they don't take the first 3 tricks it is hard to see how you can ruff two spades without giving them the time to find the heart ruff.
(In case you didn't notice RHO opened the bidding with 1H, which in North America typically shows at least 5 hearts.)

[jdonn]

cherdano, on Sep 29 2007, 05:24 PM, said:

(In case you didn't notice RHO opened the bidding with 1H...

and as they say, therein lies the rub. I was thinking that was 1♠ all along.

I like saccing far less now. I go from "I guess pass" to "definitely pass".

[jdeegan]

5♣ is down one or two, so bidding it is insurance against -620. The issue is whether they can make 4♠ which is iffy, depending on the location of the red suit honors and how those suits break. I don't know much about this from the auction. Weak opponents?? At the beginning of a long match, I take the insurance like a shot. I'd rather lose 6 or so IMPs than 13. In other situations, it depends. At MPs I'd guess pass.