[cherdano]

Jlall, on Sep 25 2007, 10:34 AM, said:

lol. This thread is awesome.

It's spelled awasome on BBF.

[skjaeran]

Jlall, on Sep 25 2007, 06:34 PM, said:

pclayton, on Sep 24 2007, 06:17 PM, said:

Hannie, on Sep 24 2007, 02:14 PM, said:

4S, who was it that said "take out your partner's take-out doubles"?

It was Kaplan but he might pass this one.

lol. This thread is awesome.

As the level increase, take-out doubles become more take and less out.

[neilkaz]

I may not even contribute a trick on defence..I have 4♠...I'll bid 4♠ here and without much thought to be honest.

I don't mind passing doubles at the 4 level, but not of 4♥ with 4 cards in ♠ and quacks that may be useful if we control the trump suit, but may just get ruffed away on defence.

4♠ .. neilkaz ..

[han]

skaeran, on Sep 25 2007, 12:19 PM, said:

Jlall, on Sep 25 2007, 06:34 PM, said:

pclayton, on Sep 24 2007, 06:17 PM, said:

Hannie, on Sep 24 2007, 02:14 PM, said:

4S, who was it that said "take out your partner's take-out doubles"?

It was Kaplan but he might pass this one.

lol. This thread is awesome.

As the level increase, take-out doubles become more take and less out.

Hopefully it was clear that I was teasing Justin.

[han]

mikeh, on Sep 24 2007, 10:22 AM, said:

The 4 scenarios.

1. We make 4♠, they make 4♥.

2. We make 4♠ and they fail in 4♥.

3. We fail in 4♠, possibly doubled, and they make 4♥:

4. We fail in 4♠ and they fail in 4♥

Bidding 4♠ is right 3 out of 4 scenarios, but that really doesn't help us unless we can judge the relative likelihood of each. It seems clear to me that the 4th scenario, where passing is correct, is the most probable (I am assuming that even on a bad day, 4♠ won't go 800).

Is it more probable than the other 3 combined?

I know you know this mikeh, but I think I should object anyway.

Clearly just asking for the probabilities is not the right question, you should weigh each outcome with the IMP results. For example, scenario (1) is less likely than scenario (2), but the IMP changes between pulling and passing are much larger for (1) so it might still be a bigger factor.

[mikeh]

Quite right, Hannie. And it is even more complex than that (as I know you know ). When comparing scenarios 1 and 2, for example, you have to assign probabilities to the chances of collecting 500 or 300 or 100 against 4♥.

When 4♠ fails, we have to estimate the odds of getting doubled and the size of the set, and so on.

All told, the assessment requires a subjective analysis of a lot of difficult to estimate possibilities. I overly-simplified it to the 4 main starting points.

[neilkaz]

pclayton, on Sep 24 2007, 03:06 PM, said:

Just pass. 4 tricks are easier than 11. Every time I make this call it seems like we nip them a trick.

Yes, Phil..but I made 4♠ today and it only required 10 tricks

[paulg]

Partner's hand was the first of catch22's problems in this thread.

Suffice to say that you are trying to minimise the damage. Passing will concede -590 and bidding 4♠ will lose -800.

One hand proves little but imho the passers are winning the argument.

Paul