You are South, vulnerable against not, in this expert game. Your call?
The bigger gamble? Pass or pull
#1
Posted 2007-September-24, 01:41
You are South, vulnerable against not, in this expert game. Your call?
#2
Posted 2007-September-24, 01:58
- R. Buckminster Fuller
#3
Posted 2007-September-24, 02:00
Whatever your decision, try to look confident!
#4 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2007-September-24, 02:09
Gerben42, on Sep 24 2007, 03:00 AM, said:
lol
#5
Posted 2007-September-24, 02:30
X was for takeout, I have 4 spades, I bid
them.
With kind regards
Marlowe
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
#6 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2007-September-24, 02:54
#8
Posted 2007-September-24, 03:13
Then again, depending on LHO's preempt style there might be positive LOTT adjustments. OTOH p rates to have a big hand in which case he needs not have classic shape. I think it's close. I voted pass.
#9
Posted 2007-September-24, 03:28
However, I have somewhere between zero and no defensive tricks, so I gamble 4 Spade. Bad luck, pd was looking at Kxx, Kx,AKxx,AKxx and nothing makes in any direction? Bad luck.
But maybe he looks at KQxx,x,AKxx,Axxx and 4 Spade is a big winner?
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#10
Posted 2007-September-24, 03:36
George Carlin
#11
Posted 2007-September-24, 04:31
helene_t, on Sep 24 2007, 09:13 AM, said:
Then again, depending on LHO's preempt style there might be positive LOTT adjustments. OTOH p rates to have a big hand in which case he needs not have classic shape. I think it's close. I voted pass.
I though you needed to know aproximatelly how many trumps each saide had to know the number of total tricks. But here you don't even know if your side has a fit.
I play doubles at any level as take out, and I would just pass on this hand.
#12
Posted 2007-September-24, 08:27
#13
Posted 2007-September-24, 09:22
1. We make 4♠, they make 4♥.
2. We make 4♠ and they fail in 4♥.
3. We fail in 4♠, possibly doubled, and they make 4♥:
4. We fail in 4♠ and they fail in 4♥
Bidding 4♠ is right 3 out of 4 scenarios, but that really doesn't help us unless we can judge the relative likelihood of each. It seems clear to me that the 4th scenario, where passing is correct, is the most probable (I am assuming that even on a bad day, 4♠ won't go 800).
Is it more probable than the other 3 combined?
If the double were purely takeout, virtually assured to hold 4 spades, then the answer would be no, and we should bid. But most, over 4♥, would double with
AKx xx AJxx Axxx and consider this to be a very sound call, yet 4♠ is awful while 4♥ is going down on most layouts.
Making up hands for partner on these poorly defined auctions is a shortcut to insanity, but, having engaged for a moment in that exercise, I pass unhappily.
#14
Posted 2007-September-24, 09:45
Jlall, on Sep 24 2007, 03:54 AM, said:
We should give them a new name
#15
Posted 2007-September-24, 13:04
ulven, on Sep 24 2007, 09:58 AM, said:
I'm passing to, but no apology - so would partner.
Harald
#16
Posted 2007-September-24, 14:06
#17
Posted 2007-September-24, 15:25
Chances of going plus at 4♥x have to be better than the chances of going plus in 4♠.
Perhaps someone can do a simulation for this hand opposite hands that merit a double of 4♥. Of course, the question of whether the double of 4♥ is purely takeout or just shows a good hand is relevant. In old-fashioned bridge, the double of 4♥ was still for takeout but much less so than a double of 3♥.
Normally, one goes to great lengths to avoid a double game swing at IMPs. But with the soft values in my hand combined with partner's good hand, it is hard to imagine that both 4♥ and a game our way will make.
Impossible? No. But unlikely. I expect to go plus in 4♥x.
#18
Posted 2007-September-24, 15:38
Partner expects me to bid 4S when possible. Needs to be at the four level because that's where he was when he doubled.
#19
Posted 2007-September-24, 16:14
- hrothgar
#20
Posted 2007-September-24, 17:17
Hannie, on Sep 24 2007, 02:14 PM, said:
It was Kaplan but he might pass this one.

Help

(4♥) - Dbl - (Pass) - ?