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LOTT what a dilemma

#1 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2004-February-06, 09:06

Your hand is:



In the bidding pd shows a three suiter with 5 spades and a heart void 10-14 HCP. So he has exactly 5=0=4=4
You are vulnerable and your opponents are not.

The bidding was:

Pd RHO You LHO
2d x xx 3h
3s 4h ?

Double by RHO was explained as "values"
Your redouble showed the hand is yours.
3s by pd showed exactly 5 spades and the heart void (nice to study this competitive auctions ah?)

When your opponents reach 4h what do you do? Do you bid 4 spades, double 4h or just pass and let them play?
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#2 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-February-06, 09:11

i'm not sure pass isn't forcing here... i think i x because if i pass i force pard to bid 5 something, if he thinks my pass forces.. i think penalty dbl pays off big here
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Posted 2004-February-06, 09:12

LOTT says there are 19 tricks. If they make 4, 4 is a good defense, and if we make 4, they'll go down in 4 (-1 or maybe -2). So according to the law, we should at least play 4.

Also, since this hand seems like a dummy reversal play, I think you should bid 4 anyway...
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Posted 2004-February-06, 09:24

Pass would be forcing after the intial REDOUBLE. Despite this, I am bidding 4. Surely we have no losers, and partners 10-14 points are in the other three suits. If we have two losers, then partners points are all in and so hard to imagine a hand with two losers in those two suits. Same logic applies to the suit, although if we are missing the AK they maybe able to manage a ruff (I imagine any missing minor honor in RHO's hand). Finally even if partner is has as weak as xxxxx we may have only one loser in that suit. So bid 4 anticipating (hoping? wishing? dreaming?) to make.

Ben
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#5 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-February-06, 10:10

inquiry, on Feb 6 2004, 05:24 PM, said:

Pass would be forcing after the intial REDOUBLE. Despite this, I am bidding 4. Surely we have no losers, and partners 10-14 points are in the other three suits. If we have two losers, then partners points are all in and so hard to imagine a hand with two losers in those two suits. Same logic applies to the suit, although if we are missing the AK they maybe able to manage a ruff (I imagine any missing minor honor in RHO's hand). Finally even if partner is has as weak as xxxxx we may have only one loser in that suit. So bid 4 anticipating (hoping? wishing? dreaming?) to make.

Ben

4 is a good bid, i just think it's possible to set them 2 or more.. BUT this could be one of those hands where both 4 and 4 makes..
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Posted 2004-February-06, 10:17

luke warm, on Feb 6 2004, 11:10 AM, said:

4 is a good bid, i just think it's possible to set them 2 or more.. BUT this could be one of those hands where both 4 and 4 makes..

Jimmy,

Don't let FREE and me change your mind. Double might easily be the only plus here. The K is not good for offense and the minor suit queens may be winning tricks on defense too. And since LOTT suggest bidding more and the way Luis phrased the problem, I suspect at the table double is the winning call... I simply wouldn't make it. What good is +100 or maybe +300 when I hope for +620.... but if I had to bet from the phrasing, DBL is winning call. Forcing pass also has some merit.

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Posted 2004-February-06, 10:21

The Law says you should bid, and in fact, I guess this is indeed a hand where the Law totally screws up, otherwise it wouldn't be an interesting bridge hand :D
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#8 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2004-February-06, 11:39

So far so good you bid 4s but not without thinking about doubling, after all the hK plays on defense but not in offense. Now they take the obvious non-vul sacrifice at 5h what do you do now ?
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Posted 2004-February-06, 12:00

luis, on Feb 6 2004, 12:39 PM, said:

So far so good you bid 4s but not without thinking about doubling, after all the hK plays on defense but not in offense. Now they take the obvious non-vul sacrifice at 5h what do you do now ?

Am I in direct seat of balance seat over 5 (not that it probably matters)....
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#10 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2004-February-06, 12:03

inquiry, on Feb 6 2004, 06:00 PM, said:

luis, on Feb 6 2004, 12:39 PM, said:

So far so good you bid 4s but not without thinking about doubling, after all the hK plays on defense but not in offense. Now they take the obvious non-vul sacrifice at 5h what do you do now ?

Am I in direct seat of balance seat over 5 (not that it probably matters)....

Sorry, you are in balancing seat, pd already said that he had 10-15 0=5=4=4 so he will remain silent for the rest of the auction unless somethin strange happens.

It went

4s - 5h - pass - pass

In case you want to consider table-feeling factors the 5h bid was automatical, so LHO had already decided to bid 5h if you bid 4s while you were briefly thinking in your turn.
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Posted 2004-February-06, 12:30

Ok, this is ugly. Here is what my understanding of LOTT suggest (Where is Larry Cohen when you need him?). They have ten card heart fit, we have 9 card spade fit. That is 19 tricks. The basic theory is if we can take 11 tricks in spades, they only get 8 in hearts. So if we make 5 (+650), we would collect down three doubled for a +500. Of course, we probably have to struggle to win 10 tricks, so they may win 9, still two short of their goal of 11.

Now, on the other hand, voids typically throw LOTT off by at least one trick. So while we might (and I stress might) be able to make 11 tricks, they might be able to make 10... (and the 5 bidder might be void in ). Of course, we might have been going down in 4 in which case they may well be cold for 5 or partner may get off to a disasterous opening lead that gives up a trick and lets them make.

I woulld like to just give up and pass. However, if I am going to play with this partner ever again, I will double, and hope they don't make. As I would play my partners pass over 5 as forciing given my earlier redouble, thus for partnership harmony I have no option. Sad I am not on lead to lead a trump... as no doubt they will cross ruff and and win a to score 11 tricks... :-(

Oh well.... you know the old saying, if they don't make some doubled contracts against you, you are not doubling enough.

Ben
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#12 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-February-06, 16:50

luis, on Feb 6 2004, 07:39 PM, said:

So far so good you bid 4s but not without thinking about doubling, after all the hK plays on defense but not in offense. Now they take the obvious non-vul sacrifice at 5h what do you do now ?

this is what i meant when i said by not x'ing i might force pard to "save" at the 5 level... ben, i wasn't letting you and free change my mind, merely agreeing that 4 might be the right bid

i still think x is best, but my opinion was based on thinking *they* were vulnerable and we weren't.. if it's the other way around, 4 seems right but now has the problem of what to do over 5

over 5 i have to double, assuming pard didn't compete
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Posted 2004-February-07, 06:04

Ok, now this is beginning to get nasty. Lets count some HCP. We have 20-24, so opps have 16-20, and only 7 in s. This means they have 9-13 in the other suits. When they have 2 aces and a jack, we should be able to make 5. 3 kings is not possible, 1 king and an AQ () is possible. And this is only when our partner has 14HCP! The chance of making 5 is pretty small!

Now lets go back to our law: 19 tricks, we make about 10 (or 9) tricks, so opps make only 9 (or 10). They found their good defense, reward them with a Double.
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Posted 2004-February-07, 13:34

luis, on Feb 6 2004, 03:06 PM, said:

Your hand is:



In the bidding pd shows a three suiter with 5 spades and a heart void 10-14 HCP. So he has exactly 5=0=4=4
You are vulnerable and your opponents are not.

The bidding was:

Pd RHO You LHO
2d x xx 3h
3s 4h ?

Double by RHO was explained as "values"
Your redouble showed the hand is yours.
3s by pd showed exactly 5 spades and the heart void (nice to study this competitive auctions ah?)

When your opponents reach 4h what do you do? Do you bid 4 spades, double 4h or just pass and let them play?

If you bid 3s or 4s after RHO's x, then u wont have this problem. xx is really meaningless in my point-of-view.
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