Posted 2004-February-06, 12:30
Ok, this is ugly. Here is what my understanding of LOTT suggest (Where is Larry Cohen when you need him?). They have ten card heart fit, we have 9 card spade fit. That is 19 tricks. The basic theory is if we can take 11 tricks in spades, they only get 8 in hearts. So if we make 5♠ (+650), we would collect down three doubled for a +500. Of course, we probably have to struggle to win 10 tricks, so they may win 9, still two short of their goal of 11.
Now, on the other hand, voids typically throw LOTT off by at least one trick. So while we might (and I stress might) be able to make 11 tricks, they might be able to make 10... (and the 5♥ bidder might be void in ♠). Of course, we might have been going down in 4♠ in which case they may well be cold for 5♥ or partner may get off to a disasterous opening lead that gives up a trick and lets them make.
I woulld like to just give up and pass. However, if I am going to play with this partner ever again, I will double, and hope they don't make. As I would play my partners pass over 5♥ as forciing given my earlier redouble, thus for partnership harmony I have no option. Sad I am not on lead to lead a trump... as no doubt they will cross ruff ♦ and ♠ and win a ♣ to score 11 tricks... :-(
Oh well.... you know the old saying, if they don't make some doubled contracts against you, you are not doubling enough.
Ben
--Ben--